Milwaukee’s weakest spot from last year isn’t necessarily a strength this year, but it’s definitely no longer a flaw
We all remember the Bucks’ problems from last year when facing dynamic, offensively gifted guards. Jalen Brunson averaged 37.2 PPG the five times he played Milwaukee (including two 40-point nights), Tyrese Haliburton averaged 28 PPG on .532/.375/.909 in five regular season contests before Adrian Griffin’s firing (he had just 16 PPG on .435/.296/.857 in six playoff games) Donovan Mitchell averaged 30 PPG in four matchups, Tyrese Maxey averaged 28.3 PPG and 44% from deep in three, Cam Thomas dropped 45 on them, D’Angelo Russell even had 44. Young, athletic guards wreaked havoc on the Bucks last season, no matter who the coach was.
Conventional wisdom, especially among the national media, suggested the same would occur this season. While Malik Beasley departed for Detroit, Damian Lillard is a year older, and Patrick Beverley left the continent. No one seemed to think Gary Trent Jr. or Delon Wright, who both have much better defensive reputations than anyone in last year’s guard rotation (albeit to varying degrees), would make any difference. Most only knew that AJ Green could shoot and that Andre Jackson Jr. had some defensive chops but probably wouldn’t play much. It appeared to be another shreddable backcourt, lacking credible point-of-attack defenders.
To be fair to the naysayers, if you take a look at how offense-oriented guards (plus Jrue Holiday) have performed against the Bucks in the season’s first month in terms of raw scoring, they haven’t had many banner nights. Especially if you sort by these guys’ averages:
Nearly everyone is exceeding their season average. But we need to go beyond just point totals, and when we do, we start seeing signs of defensive improvement as Milwaukee’s season has evolved. Let’s first touch on attempts—after all, perhaps the brightest feather in a defender’s cap is preventing their assignment from shooting, period:
Slight step forward here as just over half these guards (56%) are putting up more shots than they typically shoot. But on average, they get 2.4 more attempts off when facing the Bucks. From three, it’s only about 0.7 more attempts, and again, just over half of the guards (54%) are taking more than usual. Let’s see how many of those are going in:
Still not terrible! Scoring guards shoot only 3.3% against Milwaukee from the field and 3.7% from deep. Like before, 56% are having better nights overall, though 62% of the time, they’re hitting more triples. They’re shooting 6.8% better than league average behind the arc but 1.4% worse in general—hat tip to the Bucks’ rim protectors here for sure.
Of course, scoring efficiency in the NBA isn’t just about how well you convert on the floor. Getting to the charity stripe and hitting your free throws is the best thing you can do as a scorer, so a good defense will keep opponents off the line by not fouling. Milwaukee is one of the league’s best in this regard, with the NBA’s seventh-lowest opponent free throw rate and the fifth-fewest opponent attempts per 100 possessions. They’re doing well with opposing guards too:
Just over half the time (54%), scoring guards get to the line less often when facing the Bucks. And if you take out the outliers to noted foul-drawer Gradey Dick (???) and noted grifter LaMelo Ball, that works out to .27 fewer free throws per game across the season. Only half of the 28 guards in this exercise shoot more free throws than league average for guards, though, so we’re not talking about a cavalcade of foul merchants here.
Now, let’s put this all together with two all-encompassing numbers: effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and true shooting percentage (TS%). For the uninitiated, these are measurements of just how prolific one is as a shooter and scorer; the first is a field goal percentage adjusted for the added value of a three-point shot, and the other factors in free throws too. Here’s how each guard performed relative to their season eFG% and TS% against the Bucks’ defense:
Instead of looking at how these numbers shake out over the entire season thus far, though, I want to draw a line of demarcation between the Cavs matchups on November 2nd and 4th. Prior to that evening, the seventh game of the young season, AJ Green had seen just 36 minutes in five contests (and a good 22ish of them came in garbage time), plus a DNP-CD. Andre Jackson Jr. joined the rotation for good on Halloween—spare seeing only five minutes against Houston last Monday—but played only 13 minutes in the five games prior with a DNP-CD of his own. Beginning that Monday night in Cleveland, both guys were in the rotation to stay.
Since Jackson and Green have been seeing regular playing time, the 22 guards post-November 4th—including some of the same guys from the first six games—have only been 1.4% and 1.6% better on average in terms of eFG% and TS%, respectively. Half of the 24 guard performances (they saw Ball and Green twice, hence two more than 22) in the table above were worse than the player’s season-long eFG% when playing the Bucks. Ten of the 24 performances were less efficient as measured by TS%.
Of course, these are small samples (literally one game by one player), but when grouped on either side of November 4th, they’re more similar in size: 15 across the first six games of the season versus 24 since. Those 15 opposing guards outshot their season-long eFG% by a full 9.5% on average, and in terms of TS%, they outperformed by 10.1%. As the guard pecking order has changed in the last three weeks, opposing guards are 8–9% less damaging overall, to the point where they’re having a worse night than usual nearly half the time. All this is not to say that Milwaukee suddenly has an elite or even a good defensive backcourt all of a sudden. But at the very least, it’s about average and trending upward.
That bears out in team statistics too. Since November 4th, when both Jackson and Green became rotation fixtures, the Bucks have risen from the league’s 28th-ranked defense to 17th, a climb of 4.5 points per 100 possessions. In that timespan, Milwaukee is tied for the ninth-best defense in the league per Cleaning The Glass, just ahead of Boston. They’ve been best in halfcourt sets with a 95.2 defensive rating, but their much-maligned transition defense has even improved in that timespan, ranking 15th in terms of points opponents added per transition play at 2.2, exactly league average.
Soon after that game, injuries and generally poor showings started affecting the vets. Gary Trent Jr. missed two with back spasms, Delon Wright logged three DNP-CDs in favor of Ryan Rollins, and Pat Connaughton ran around hitting a shot or two and maybe a few boards. Trent started coming off the bench once his back felt better and has looked awesome since (six straight games in double figures on .563/.595/1.000 shooting). When Dame sustained a concussion, Wright took his spot back, then kept it once Rollins dislocated his shoulder.
Lillard has had moments of defensive aptitude in recent games, though they’re very much an exception to the rule. Wright still racks up deflections—4.1 per 36, 15th among players with at least 200 minutes—and steals with 1.7 per 36, the same as Jalen Suggs and Jaren Jackson Jr. He remains generally good on-ball, and so does Trent for the most part, getting in passing lanes well enough with 2.8 deflections per 36. That’s in the same range as Donte DiVincenzo, Chris Paul, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (at least two of whom are clearly better defenders overall, but still).
But three guys stuck through that whole time: AJax, Green, and Connaughton. The latter fell out of the rotation entirely once Dame returned last Monday, logging four DNP-CDs. With a guard rotation now consisting of Lillard, Green, Trent, Jackson, and Wright, the Bucks have four backcourt defenders who are at least average. That order is how Doc has allocated their minutes since November 4th too, from Green’s 24.7 MPG down to Wright’s 18.5. Again, AJax and Green have played in each contest.
AJax does everything well and has cut his foul rate significantly, averaging just 2.4 personals per game in November in 20.8 MPG. That’s 4.2 per 36 minutes, which is a huge step forward from last year’s 5.8 and the 11.3 in his first four games. For perspective, All-Defensive second-teamer Jaden McDaniels averages 4.2 fouls per 36 this year, and Draymond Green averages 4.4. Green has looked outstanding as an on-ball defender the last couple weeks; he just needs to work on his team defense. Surprisingly, he’s had a larger impact as a defender in some recent games than as a shooter, giving them quality shifts even when his three-ball was cold.
Can this keep up? The Bucks have Tyler Herro and perhaps Terry Rozier ahead this week before a resurgent Jordan Poole this weekend, then Cade Cunningham and Trae Young next week. After that, rematches with the Celtics and Nets, featuring Buck killer Payton Pritchard and sometimes-Bucks killer Dennis Schröder. Following that four-game week, at least two more against unknown opponents, depending on how the NBA Cup shakes out. Once that passes, they see Cleveland’s dynamic guard duo for a third time.
While Jackson and Green both saw action in the most recent Boston matchup, the former only saw garbage time in the previous meeting with Brooklyn, while the latter got only 13 minutes. Based on Milwaukee’s improvement when dealing with Chicago’s guards last week compared to the season’s second game, Jackson and Green will probably give them some of what they were missing on Schröder and Thomas during the season’s third game. Then perhaps the third time is the charm with Boston and Cleveland.
If the Bucks’ current backcourt mix stays healthy and has similar success limiting opposing guards over the next three weeks or even improves on what they’ve been doing lately, what do we make of them at that point? Still average, or perhaps better than average? Would it change our opinions about what the team needs to address heading closer to the deadline? Maybe not, but we may no longer need to worry so much about frequent huge nights from scoring guards, thanks to Jackson and Green.
All stats as of November 25, 2024.