Here are the only ways the Bucks could trade for Jimmy Butler

Because of second apron restrictions, it’s hardly realistic for Milwaukee to acquire the aging Heat star.

You’ve heard the news by now: Jimmy Butler wants out of Miami. He’s not only asked for a trade, but he’s been suspended by the Heat too. I’ll put aside my schadenfreude for a minute, built up by years of hearing that the Heat are making cap room for Giannis, they could still go after Dame, or that they’re a preferred destination for [insert star here]. Who could have predicted they’d end up here after all those misses (I’m being sarcastic)??

Let’s also set aside some of the drawbacks Butler brings: he’s 35, injuries have caused him to sit for 11 games this season, missed 22 games last year and 18 the year prior with more injuries, and is putting up his lowest per-game averages since before he won the 2015 Most Improved Player award in Chicago. Say what you will about his brief time in Minnesota, but he’s also not necessarily a good locker-room presence. He has a reputation around the league—and certainly among Bucks fans—as being somewhat of a jerk. Unhappy with the situation in Miami, he’s put up two pretty uninspired efforts since returning on New Year’s Day, leading many to criticize his professionalism.

That all being said, pretty much every contender would love to acquire him because, well, Playoff Jimmy. Maybe he refocuses once he’s on a team that’s going for a title, and once he gets his “joy” back, he starts looking like the Butler we saw as recently as the 2023 postseason. Not surprisingly, many teams have been linked to him, perhaps most prominently the Suns or perhaps the Warriors.

And amid speculation about their interest, we finally have some rumors about the Bucks talking about bringing the Marquette alum back to Milwaukee, per John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7:

While I know this comes from a talk radio host in Phoenix, he’s a legitimate NBA source. Moreover, people are talking about Butler to the Bucks, and now that I’ve laid out the cons, let’s tackle the real question here: is this trade even possible?

The short answer is no, not even with Damian Lillard or Giannis. Those two are making ever so slightly less than Butler this season: literally $11,000 less. As you might have heard, Milwaukee is currently over both the first and second aprons above the luxury tax, significantly hampering their ability to acquire players via trade. For one, since they are $17.3m above the first apron, they cannot send out more money than they take back in a trade. So forget about swapping Khris Middleton’s or Brook Lopez’s expiring salaries—$31.7m and $23m, respectively—for Butler. It’s not legal. Nor is trading Dame for Butler straight-up.

More pertinently, being above the second apron means that the Bucks cannot immediately aggregate players’ salaries together in order to equal incoming money. So they could not put Lopez and Middleton’s salaries together, totaling $54.7m, to bring Butler back. Since Milwaukee can’t aggregate these players together to get to the $48.8m they’d have to deal away in order to acquire Butler. They can’t even do it with Dame and MarJon Beauchamp, though that would be sending out more money than is coming in.

Trading Dame is not going to happen. But is there any other way? I’m here to tell you the answer is yes, but they’re very challenging and thus quite unlikely. The most straightforward would be to dump salary and dip under the second apron, gaining the ability to aggregate salaries. So if, say, Milwaukee were to slash $9.4m from their salary by dealing away Connaughton for a top-55 protected future second (I doubt any other team agree to this right now, for the record), they would be about $2.9m clear of the second apron, and could then aggregate salaries.

However, if they were to do so, they’d then be hard-capped at the second apron. Any trade they subsequently make would take back less money than is being sent away by default since they’re far above the first apron. But they then couldn’t exceed the $188.9m second apron between now and June 30th, so any subsequent moves would need to take that into account. So if they signed a buyout guy to a minimum or acquired a minimum player in a trade using the minimum salary exception, they’d need to leave enough space.

But here’s an interesting wrinkle in all this: any apron restrictions apply at the end of the trade. See, the Bucks could technically aggregate salaries together in order to acquire Butler, but with that trade, they would again be hard-capped at the second apron. They’re currently $6.5m over, so the aggregating trade would need to reduce team salary by at least that much.

Aggregating Middleton and Lopez works out to $54,666,667 in outgoing money, but Butler’s $48,787,676 is a difference of $5,878,991, so it’s not quite enough. Adding MarJon Beauchamp or any minimum-salaried Buck would get them there. They also could trade Middleton with Portis and Connaughton, then add any Buck making more than Tyler Smith’s $1.2m to get there, making it a four-for-one deal. Trading Dame and Connaughton would also comply with league rules, while keeping them beneath the hard cap they’d then be subject to.

Here’s the rub, though: if the Bucks traded three or four players for Butler, their roster would be at 12 or 13 standard contracts (not including their three two-way players), and they’d have two weeks to get to the NBA-mandated 14-man roster minimum. They would be hard-capped as a result of the Butler trade, so they’d need to leave enough room beneath the second apron to acquire one or two players. If the package is Middleton, Portis, Connaughton, and Beauchamp ($56.4 outgoing offsetting Butler’s $48.8 incoming), the Bucks would have just $2m to work with and two roster spots to fill.

Since minimum salaries pro-rate, depending on when the trade is completed and thus starting the two-week clock to get back up to 14 players (while remaining under the second apron hard cap), a minimum contract could be worth under $1m if the trade happens late enough in the season. We’re a couple weeks away from the midpoint of the NBA calendar, so a veteran signing for the minimum (on a buyout, say) after the deadline would take up a chunk of that. Ryan Rollins is on a two-way deal and could be converted, but this being his third year in the league, his cap hit would be the same as any more experienced vet.

Now, this entire scenario doesn’t factor in some other very important elements. The Heat are also above the first apron, so they could not acquire any more salary than the $48.8m they’re sending out in the form of Butler. That means at least one more team needs to be in the deal to facilitate where some of the salaries Milwaukee sends out would go. Said partner(s) would need to remain beneath the first apron, as they would be acquiring more salary (if any) than they are dealing away.

Then there is the matter of additional compensation; Miami would want at least one draft pick in return for Butler, and any additional team(s) would likely need picks to incentivize taking on the likes of Middleton or Butler. Milwaukee has only two future draft choices that can currently be traded: their first- and second-round picks in 2031. As we’ve noted here before, when that draft finally takes place, Giannis will be 37 years old.

Personally, I would only touch that 2031 first if it returns a young star in their prime (how about embracing the tank and trading Bam Adebayo, Mr. Riley?). The 2031 second probably isn’t enough for Miami or another team to take on a large multi-year contract, even if it expires (Lopez) or has an opt-out (Middleton, Portis, Connaughton) this summer. I don’t care how much he turns up in the Playoffs—there is no way I would trade that pick for a 35-year-old malcontent who doesn’t shoot enough threes and has injury concerns.

If the Heat want one or more future firsts in return for Butler, forget it—the Bucks will be outbid by teams who have them available for trade. Their only hope would be that the facilitating team(s) involved in the trade would send firsts to Miami as payment for acquiring Middleton, Lopez, or Portis. Middleton is the only tradeable Buck (not named Dame or Giannis) who I could see a team giving up a future first for at this point.

Finally, how would this team look if Middleton, plus one of Lopez or Portis are traded? Yes, Butler is better than those three right now, but since one of those two bigs must be included, the Bucks would have very little space to replace them, given the hard cap a Butler trade would incur. All this is to say that Butler in Milwaukee is pretty unlikely, based on all the moving parts and convincing necessary for other teams to take on the Bucks’ big contracts. I wouldn’t get your hopes up, and if it were to happen, it would create more questions than the plenty this team already has.