Everyone’s favorite Buck: Pat Connaughton might play more often than we want in the months ahead, but that might not be bad

The best way to rehabilitate his value both to Milwaukee and trade partners is to, well, play him

There’s something of an elephant in the room for the Bucks to start the 2024–25 season in the form of longtime role player Pat Connaughton. It seems like the vast majority of fans want him off the team in some way or another. Some will trade him for a bag of potato chips, some will happily include a draft pick to rid Milwaukee of his remaining salary, some are happy to release him and eat his contract, some hope he’ll be part of a trade that helps—or at least doesn’t hurt—the team in the long or short term, et cetera.

I’m here today to make the case that it’s in the best interest of the Bucks, their fans who have completely sworn him off, and any of us who fall somewhere in between to play him a bit this fall, especially if they want to move him between now and next summer. With few future draft assets, this franchise isn’t in a great position to pay others to take on a bad contract, a la the Tony Snell trade in 2019. So they’ll have to find another way or give up more picks, but any they have will be made once Giannis is 36. That’s a bad outcome and should be a last resort. First, Milwaukee should try to rebuild his trade value.

Let’s give Connaughton his flowers first. He’s an undeniable success story for Milwaukee’s player development system, going from an average-shooting reserve in Portland to a key postseason contributor on a title-winner three years later. The following campaign was the height of his career, shooting 39.5% on 5.7 three-point attempts per game during a career-high 26 MPG. That earned him a new three-year, $28m extension in summer 2022, which began in the 2023–24 season.

Unfortunately, the season after signing that contract was when things started to go south for its value, his numbers, and even his vaunted athleticism. Connaughton dealt with calf injuries throughout the 2022–23 season, plus a late-season ankle injury; both visibly slowed him, curtailing those trademark fly-by closeouts—though maybe that wasn’t a bad thing. But his formerly solid defense suffered overall, and his shooting numbers tanked: his 39.2% from the field was his worst since his 34-game rookie season, and his 33.9% from deep nearly a 6% dropoff from the year before. Still, his rotation spot was secure, and he was one of Milwaukee’s best performers during their first-round defeat to Miami in the 2023 Playoffs, averaging 12 PPG and shooting a white-hot .567/.478/.750 in 88 minutes over his four healthy games in the series.

That postseason success made fans optimistic that 2022–23 was an aberration due to those lower-body maladies. If our yearly Ranking The Roster series is any indication, fans weren’t too out on him yet: the majority named Connaughton the sixth-most important Buck to postseason success before last season began. Dating back to 2019, he’d finished sixth or seventh for five years running.

Though he appeared in 76 games last year—his most since his final year as a Blazer—and his shooting numbers ticked back up to 43.5% from the field (in line with his 43.6% career figure) and 34.5% behind the arc, there was a lot of consternation about Planet Pat’s role on the team. His per-minute production was down, his efficiency average at best, and he was doing little to help defensively. On top of that, he remained ahead of younger Bucks that fans wanted to see—Andre Jackson Jr., AJ Green, and MarJon Beauchamp—in the rotation. That dropped him to tenth in this year’s RTR.

Unlike in 2023, last year Connaughton didn’t have one of his typically strong playoff series to fall back on, shooting .440/.273/1.000 across all six games versus the Pacers, good for just 4.5 PPG and 3.8 RPG in 20.7 MPG. After playing much better than the $5–5.7m he made annually on his previous contract, the Bucks weren’t getting great value on the $9.4m they paid him last year. He’s set to earn that figure again this coming year, and it’s how much his 2025–26 player option is worth, which looks like a lock to be exercised at this point.

$9.4m is right in that range that teams and fans love when toying around with the trade machine because it’s seen as good salary filler for expensive players, especially when it’s on an expiring deal. So there was no shortage of trade ideas with Connaughton in them, including here on Brew Hoop. The problem is he’s not on an expiring deal. He essentially has two years and $18.8m remaining since, barring a big bounceback year that would line him up for a nice payday in free agency next summer, he’s likely to opt in. Factor in his decline, and you have a 31-year-old on an undesirable contract; not even a neutral asset, and definitely something you’d have to incentivize other teams to take on.

Another problem: Milwaukee doesn’t have the assets to attach to him in order to get off the deal. Look no further than what Denver had to give up to move Reggie Jackson this summer, who had one year and $5.3m remaining on his contract at age 34. Sending him to Charlotte, who had plenty of cap room to absorb him, meant sending along three of their own future second-round picks (2025, 2029, and 2030) too. That swap was designed to help the Nuggets stay beneath the second apron, so they only got cash back from the Hornets in return.

Since three seconds was the penalty for trading a 34-year-old on a $5.3m expiring deal who put up slightly better numbers than Connaughton last year, the penalty for trading Connaughton with two years and $18.8m remaining was going to be much higher. GM Jon Horst had only one future second (2031) and one future first (also 2031) available to trade this past summer. If they’re going to trade picks that far off—again, Giannis will be several months away from 37 during the 2031 draft—it should be for something better than merely moving off a two-year, $18.8m deal.

While trading his salary without taking any back in return would have brought the Bucks beneath the second apron in July and given them access to part of the $5.2m taxpayer midlevel exception, it would only have been by about $3m. That’s around the same level as the minimum salaries for most NBA veterans, so the $3m they could use from the TPMLE was largely redundant. Not much of a raise for any vet with more than five or six years of experience and less than what any nine-plus year vet makes on a minimum.

The only hopes this summer were likely attaching him to the 2024 first-rounder or a much more valuable player or swapping him for a worse contract, like the since-cut Nassir Little, who has three years and $21.8m remaining on his deal (hard pass). Before the draft, I said I’d only have traded the pick that became AJ Johnson alongside Connaughton for a good rotation player. That Jackson trade happened the very next day; with how it ended up, I figured that Connaughton’s less attractive deal plus a first probably wouldn’t have fetched such a player. It might have just gotten Milwaukee cash, as it did for Denver.

Once it became clear that trading Connaughton would prove difficult or deleterious, discussions moved on to simply releasing him or waiving-and-stretching him. Either presents more dilemmas: straight-up cutting him, as the Suns did with Reid, means the $18.8m he is owed remains on the books both this year and next, no matter what. Stretching him would have spread that money out over many years: doing that before September would have meant paying him $3.8m annually through summer 2029. Doing it between now and the end of the league year in June would mean paying him the $9.4m he’s set to make this year plus $3.1m annually through summer 2028. It also would provide them no benefits this year in terms of transactional avenues opened, just tax savings in future seasons:

The best argument one could make is probably addition by subtraction. It’s reasonable to say that Connaughton’s play is hurting the team more than it’s helping at this point, for one. Also, there are now even more wings on the team he could take minutes from, adding Chris Livingston to last year’s intriguing young trio of Green, Jackson, and Beauchamp. Then you have veteran additions Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince, and Delon Wright, all of whom will see time at Connaughton’s usual spots on the floor at the two and three. Minutes look harder for everyone to come by on the wing, even for the longest-tenured contributors not named Khris Middleton.

All this is not to say that Connaughton and his contract are true albatrosses, though. $9.4m isn’t too onerous of salary to pay a guy who turns 32 in January, even if he’s seemingly declining, given how much the cap is rising in coming years. As an expiring deal next offseason, he’ll be more palatable for inclusion in trades.

Connaughton has already seen sixteen and eighteen minutes in the Bucks’ first three preseason games, shooting 5/7 from the floor. While it’s unclear where he’ll fall in the bench pecking order alongside Bobby Portis, Prince, and Wright behind the projected starting five (if Middleton isn’t ready to go opening night, Prince seems ticketed to start in his stead), it doesn’t sound like Connaughton will be buried to start the season. This is what Doc Rivers commented on Monday when asked about where he’ll fit in the pecking order:

“I think he’ll fit well. I mean, he knows our guys better than anyone else. He’s very good off the ball, going downhill with his right hand. Good rebounder for his size, competitive, phenomenal in the dunker spot. Plays well with Giannis and Khris, so he just has a knowledge that no one else has, and we’re gonna try to take advantage of that.”

That probably disappoints many fans. While yes, I would ideally like to see one of Green or Jackson as the unofficial ninth man in the rotation over Connaughton when everyone is healthy, I do understand where Doc is coming from, and I do see the logic in giving the nine-year vet at least some run as we move deeper into the year. His value is so low right now that if he shows enough semblance of the player he was two years ago or shoots league-average from three (36.6% last year), he becomes somewhat more moveable at the 2025 trade deadline in February. Whether or not that is likely is another question.

I get why fans are bearish on Connaughton after two disappointing years on the “wrong” side of 30. If he’s ticketed for a lesser role than in years past now that Wright and Prince also figure to see significant playing time off the bench, he’ll have that much less opportunity to put together a renaissance season. If the 100th percentile of outcomes is “Connaughton plays well enough to opt out next summer” and the 0th is “Connaughton looks utterly washed to the degree of Playoff Jae Crowder,” the middle of that bell curve probably looks like last year, at least from a shooting perspective.

With another year older and another underwhelming year under his belt, Connaughton by himself won’t look much more attractive on the trade market next summer. However, the penance an acquiring team would demand wouldn’t be as severe once he’s on an expiring deal. He’d still require draft picks attached, but the Bucks gain at least one more second-round pick available to trade in summer 2025. Brook Lopez comes off the books at that point, plus opt-out decisions are due for Middleton and Portis alongside Connaughton’s, meaning Milwaukee projects to have ample breathing room beneath the first apron, even with all three opting in. That will allow Horst to aggregate his salary in a trade with another player or two rather than being limited to acquiring players who are making less than him, as they are this year.

But let’s ask ourselves: what is the best the Bucks can hope for in a trade where Pat Connaughton is included this season? The two primary benefits of trading him without taking any salary (i.e. a player or players) back are clearing the way for the young guys to get more minutes and to dip them beneath the second apron this year. The latter would open up some of the TPMLE, which is even more superfluous during the season, but would allow them to aggregate salaries in another trade if they get a Connaughton trade done before the deadline.

Still, they’d probably have to attach a draft pick. Even if Connaughton has a renaissance this year, he probably won’t fetch a decent rotation player in return. Horst would still likely be limited to bad contracts for mediocre-at-best players, like Zeke Nnaji’s four years and $24.5m remaining (assuming the final year option is exercised). Attach a more positively valued asset, and you could perhaps get a decent player, but is that worth giving up on a 2031 pick and/or a current young player? That depends, but more on that later.

The best-case scenario is probably attaching Connaughton alongside a better player to get someone good in return. But because of the second apron limitations the Bucks are subject to, they can’t aggregate him with someone making more money like Portis to acquire a more expensive player. Trading those two together, for example, would only allow Milwaukee to take up to Portis’ $12.6m in salary back, so you can forget about acquiring someone who makes more than Portis by including Connaughton.

I’m not sure what kind of player one can hope for in giving up a positive asset on a likely-expiring deal (Portis) plus a more negative one (Connaughton); looking at players making under $12.6m, I see only a few names who are both gettable and might improve the Bucks (I stress, might) after they trade their leading bench scorer:

• Brandon Clarke, $12.5m due annually through 2027
• Robert Williams, $12.4m this year and $13.3 next year before free agency in 2026
• Larry Nance, $11.2m expiring contract
• Matisse Thybulle, $11m this year with a $11.6m player option for next year
• Jarred Vanderbilt, $10.7m this year with another two years and $24m left on his deal before a 2027 player option decision

Similarly, pairing Connaughton with a cheaper player (like Beauchamp) would limit them to acquiring up to his $9.4m salary, as I alluded to above. For this outgoing package, you have more attractive options, though: Gary Payton II ($9.1m, expiring), Trey Lyles ($8m, expiring), and Jae’Sean Tate ($7.1m, expiring), to name a few. If Connaughton really pops this year, maybe pairing him with a cheaper guy would be enough to net Ayo Dosunmu (two years, $14.5m left), KJ Martin (two years, but only one guaranteed at $8m), or Paul Reed (two years, but only one guaranteed at $7.7m), though Martin would almost certainly have to be a multi-team deal since Philly signed him essentially to be a salary-matching piece in a trade for a better player.

However, I don’t think they should take on long-term money for Connaughton, especially if they have to include a pick or a young player. A trade that involves taking on money past when Connaughton’s deal will end in 2026 (assuming he opts in) doesn’t seem like a good idea. For example, say Buddy Hield or Kyle Anderson aren’t working out in Golden State. Both signed multiyear deals this offseason (four years/$27.7m guaranteed and three/$18m guaranteed, respectively) and will be on the books through at least 2027. I wouldn’t trade Connaughton plus a pick or youngster for either.

Pat C might have to show that he can still contribute positively on an NBA court for any of these trade avenues to be possible. That will mean seeing him on the court between now and February, perhaps more than fans want to, so we may have to take our medicine. If he plays well, fewer will complain if he plays well, and continuing to trot him out could maintain any trade value he recoups. If he stinks, it’s probably in the Bucks’ best interest to bench him in favor of Green and try to move him again in the offseason when the penalty won’t be as high. Most likely, he’ll be something in the middle. But for the most positive outcome, whichever it is you prefer between a trade or bounceback year, let Pat dunk play.