Who are Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince, and Delon Wright really?
This offseason, the Milwaukee Bucks have acquired three key players: Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince, and Delon Wright. The chatter around these (and any) acquisitions often boils down to two key parts: player and system. Who are they as a player and how will they fit in the Bucks’ system?
Unfortunately, the answer to these questions are intertwined. Players play in systems and systems are comprised of players. It is hard to know whether a player’s performance is a function of the player himself or the system he plays in. Likewise, it is hard to know whether a system’s performance is a function of the system itself or the players that implement it.
Yet, these are important questions. Social psychology tells us that to understand behavior, we need to understand the person and the context. To understand how these three players will perform when they don the Good Land Green and Cream City Cream, we need to understand them as players and understand the system they will plan in.
One way that we can do this is to see how players fare across multiple systems. If a player does something consistently across systems, it is more likely a product of the player than any particular system. But if a player does something inconsistently across systems, it is less likely a product of the player himself and more likely a product of the particular systems.
Milwaukee will likely experience its new additions’ consistencies, for better and for worse. But these players’ inconsistencies represent opportunities that the Bucks’ system can try to optimize.
To do so, I compiled Trent Jr.’s, Prince’s, and Wright’s traditional, per-100-possession statistics across the teams that they had played for at least one-ish season. For each player, I noted statistics that changed as they moved from team to team. Let’s take a look!
Gary Trent Jr.
Trent Jr. spent the last four seasons Up North after three seasons just a Sasquatch run north of my current abode here in Oregon. Comparing his time as a Blazer and Raptor yields some interesting Nuggets.
With Portland as a baseline, Trent Jr. incorporated more two-pointers into his diet, jump(er)ing from 7.5 attempts up to 10.8. His willingness to shoot inside the arc was likely responsible in part for an uptick at the free-throw line, going from 2.3 attempts to 3.7 (and a boost in percentage, from 77.2% to 83%, with the extra practice). Taken together, this paints a picture of an upgraded offensive threat, although mostly at two levels (excluding the rim). Part of that picture, though, is a small but notable increase in assists from 2.2 to 2.7. Taking an extra three twos per game earns him the reputation of being a chucker, but at least he used that status to dish it out a bit to his teammates. All in all, the Bucks will probably want Trent Jr.’s Toronto version on offense at Fiserv.
On the other end of the court, Trent Jr. corralled more defensive rebounds in Toronto (3.6 to 2.8). I’ll admit that I’m not too sure what to make of that. However, as expected, he also recorded more steals, with a nearly 50% increase from 1.5 to 2.2. He himself might not be a gambler; rather, it may have been more of a product of Toronto’s (and particularly Nurse’s) system. Accordingly, Milwaukee would probably prefer the less risky, Portland iteration of Trent Jr. on the defensive side of the ball.
Taurean Prince
Prince has spent three seasons in Atlanta, two seasons in Brooklyn, two seasons in Minnesota, and one season in Los Angeles (with the Lakers). Plenty of data points!
For the most part, it’s the opposite story as Trent Jr. Prince has reduced his reliance on two-pointers over time, becoming more efficient on fewer attempts (initially 46.8% on 9.4 attempts, most recently 51.9% on 4.9 attempts); he has gotten to the line less (3.8 to 1.5) and shot less efficiently while there (82% to 74%); and dished out fewer assists (3.7 to 2.7). It’s an open question which version of Prince the Bucks would prefer, but my guess is that they are comfortable with him staying behind the arc.
In terms of rebounds, he has rebounded less over time, although there has been some notable fluctuation in that regard. He maxed out at 9.5 with the Timberwolves and bottomed out at 5.2 with the Lakers last year. The Lakers as a whole struggled on the boards, so that could be chalked up to system. Perhaps the Bucks can coax a Minnesota-esque rebounder out of Prince. Last, he has committed fewer turnovers over time, more than halving his initial rate of 3.4 to 1.6. That’s likely a product of experience, and perhaps also reduced playmaking expectations.
Delon Wright
Wright has gotten around, but for the sake of this exercise, I’ll focus on his four seasons in Toronto, his season in Dallas, his season in Atlanta, and his two seasons in Washington. Again, plenty of data!
It turns out that Wright lives up to his reputation of stability! Most of his statistics were steady Freddy across systems, which might indicate that he will have the smoothest transition of these three.
Similar to Prince, Wright showed a general pattern of fewer attempts inside the arc, dropping from 10.4 to 5.2 before nudging back up to 7.4 with the Wizards (my guess is that the majority of players in the NBA have seen this trend, as the league has become increasingly reliant on threes). Again, that’s probably fine—but for a guard (vs. a wing), the Bucks might prefer Wright to return to his two-point-shooting ways, or at least keep up the trend from his time in D.C.
He displayed a similar general decline in free throws and a clearer decline in turnovers. Notably, though, he has steadily increased his steal numbers over time, from 2.5 to 3.6, outpacing Trent Jr. every step of the way. Milwaukee should be able to tap into this skill should they choose; whether they will is another question.
Ultimately, I feel like I emerge with a clearer perspective of the three new Bucks as players, and in turn how they could fit into the Bucks’ system. If anything, I feel more optimistic, with positive expectations largely supported and negative expectations somewhat unsupported across the board. We’ll see how they actually fit this fall.