How good (or bad) is Kuz on offense, really?
Editor’s note: This is the first in a series of several guest posts we’ll have throughout the coming months. First is Finley Kuehl, who previously wrote for our Spurs sister site Pounding The Rock.
Kyle Kuzma has been the toughest of Milwaukee’s trade deadline acquisitions to evaluate. While Kevin Porter Jr. and Jericho Sims have established themselves as clear positives in their roles, Kuzma’s performance so far has been a mixed bag. His offense has been a far cry from what Khris Middleton brought in both the playstyle and production departments. Through 22 games as a Buck, Kuzma has averaged 14.1 points and 2.1 assists on 42.9% from the field and 29.4% from three. There have been things to like about what Kuz has brought to the table, but plenty to dislike as well. Let’s dive into Kuzma’s offensive skill set and determine just how good (or bad) he is on that end.
The Good
Since donning the green and cream, Kuzma has impressed the most offensively with his cutting. He’s shown acute instincts for when to dart to the rim, and he’s moved well off the ball in general. As he readjusts to being a third option, Kuzma’s cutting has made him a valuable off-ball weapon even with his outside shot not falling. Defenders can’t take their eyes off him, or he will make them pay with a back cut.
Kuzma’s sharp cutting has been a release valve on broken possessions. When a teammate gets stuck in a tough spot, he gives them an outlet by finding gaps in the defense and freeing himself up for an easy lay-in. This trait is especially valuable with Giannis on the court, as the MVP attracts a ton of eyeballs when he’s driving or posting up. Kuzma can provide similar value in other ways too. In Washington, the 29-year-old was often the number one option, and with all those on-ball reps, he added a decent isolation bag to his game. When Milwaukee’s offense gets stagnant, they can toss the ball to Kuzma and let him make something out of nothing. Granted, the results of this are varied (see the weaknesses section), but when he’s in a groove, Kuzma can go get a bucket.
Just like Kuzma can be an isolation option, he absolutely has the capacity to be a catch-and-shoot threat. For his career, the former champ is a 38.5% shooter from the corner. During his younger days in LA, he showed comfort as a microwave spot-up shooter. He’s had games as a Buck where he’s found a rhythm from beyond the arc, namely when he knocked down five triples against the Warriors on March 18th. While his overall track record suggests he’s not a 40% sniper, shooting can be a strength for Kuzma on any given night.
Kuzma’s shot diet in Milwaukee’s offense has included a healthy dose of spot-up tries, and he’s been more efficient on them than he was as a Wizard. As he spends more time in an off-ball role, his shot-making should ideally continue to trend upward. This chart gives a full look at Kuz’s play type data and how things have changed for him in a new role.
@BuckAnalytics
Inside the arc, Kuzma can do damage going downhill. He has the footwork, touch, and power to put together some flashy drives. Even though his moves and approaches can be awkward, he’s much more effective in the paint than he is anywhere else.
Moving away from scoring, the second most impressive aspect of Kuzma’s offense has been his passing. The 6’9” forward is a sharp ball mover who has been unselfish in his decision-making in his new, smaller role. Combining that ability with his cutting, it’s clear that Kuzma’s optimal role on a night-to-night basis is as a connector. It’s nice knowing that he can take over games when featured more prominently, though.
The Bad
When it comes to Kuzma’s weaknesses, the elephant in the room is, of course, his three-point efficiency. As mentioned, shooting can be a strength for him, but more often than not since becoming a Buck, he just hasn’t had the juice. Despite over 90% of his three-point tries being assisted, he’s still shooting sub-30% from outside. Many of his looks are open too. Come playoff time, opposing teams will be happy to leave Kuzma wide open in favor of sending extra help at Giannis and Dame. His cutting will help negate the negative effects of his shooting a little, as defenses can’t just completely ignore him. Still, if he’s not hitting shots, he may end up being benched in big moments in favor of Taurean Prince or Gary Trent Jr.
Not only has Kuzma not hit his shots, he hasn’t even consistently taken good ones. He’ll take tough pull-up middies or flick up prayers at the rim from impossible angles. Kuz is just kind of an awkward scorer, especially on the ball. A lot of this is a result of his athletic limitations. He doesn’t have the burst to blow by defenders, even slower-footed ones. He doesn’t have the power to bulldoze his way to the rack either. On top of that, his handle isn’t the tightest, so he can’t create separation in that way. Kuzma is a tough shot taker because he doesn’t have the tools to get easy looks for himself. He can make the tough shots sometimes, but he also has some horrendous misses.
Kuzma’s awkwardness leads to some unnecessary turnovers too, and his assist-to-turnover ratio is barely positive. He also occasionally inexplicably blows bunnies.
The Verdict
As mentioned at the beginning, Kuzma’s offense is a mixed bag. He’s a talented inside-the-arc scorer and a microwave who can take over for stretches. He’s also inefficient in his shotmaking and selection. So, how good is he actually? More importantly, can he be the third option for the Bucks deep into the postseason?
The answer to that second question is yes. We’ve already seen him be the third scoring option on a team that won it all back in 2020. He was successful in that role for the Lakers because he had LeBron James and Anthony Davis to relieve pressure from him and allow him to focus on his strengths. Giannis and Dame are already providing similar things. Kuzma has taken many more assisted looks since joining the Bucks than he did in Washington, and he’s also taken more wide-open ones. This chart shows how he’s getting a lot easier looks in Milwaukee than he was in Washington, especially from three.
@BuckAnalytics
The biggest problem right now is that Kuz is still working on removing all the bad habits he developed as a Wizard from his game. The hoops being played during his time in DC were so unstructured that he has to settle back into being a third option on a winning team, and he has the rest of the regular season to find that comfort.
If Kyle Kuzma can channel his strengths, chances are Bucks fans will love him after the playoffs. If he can’t, we can judge him more harshly.