Checking in on Ryan Rollins’ shoulder

The young point guard is one of Milwaukee’s most intriguing prospects, but is playing through injury.

Thanks to some really fine work in early season action as Milwaukee extracted themselves from their 2-8 start, two-way player Ryan Rollins became the latest darling of extremely online Bucks fans. And with good reason! The third-year combo guard out of Toledo is shooting .483/.378/.833 in 11.7 MPG this year, and though you might not be moved by his per-game averages of 4.8 PPG and 1.1 APG, his per-36 numbers look outstanding: 14.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, and 2.7 SPG (best on the team). Cleaning The Glass has him at a +1.8 on-off this year, with an on-court defensive rating that leads the team. Already showing real competence as a defender and ballhandler at age 22, he appears to be next in the line (hey, two people is a line!) of two-way successes after AJ Green.

Unfortunately, he’s not quite an every-night guy, but not because of his on-court performance or even because of his two-way contract. It’s because in November, he dislocated his left shoulder, getting tangled up with Bruno Fernando while disrupting a dump-off pass beneath the rim during his first career start:

He exited the game in which he established career bests in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. A couple of games earlier, he had bruised the same shoulder while taking some hard screens against Cleveland. Rollins missed the next eight games; during that time, he was diagnosed with the dislocation, and surgery was considered.

But Rollins elected to go the rehab route and play through it, getting back on the floor three weeks later, though he wasn’t reinserted in the rotation until after the Bucks’ NBA Cup run. Since then, he’s provided the team with valuable minutes over the last several weeks as they’ve weathered Damian Lillard’s illness and now Gary Trent’s hip flexor strain. In the 11 matchups (three of which he’s started) since December 21st, he’s averaging 6.4 PPG on .509/.304/.833 shooting in 16.8 MPG.

I spoke with Rollins a few weeks ago in Chicago, where during the first matchup on December 23rd, it looked like he was hit on his left arm at one point underneath the rim on defense. When asked about it, he reassured me: “I’m all good. It’s a little bit sore right now, but nothing I can’t handle, so I’ll be all right.” However, there was another moment late in a game in December where his left arm got tangled up with a Piston defender on a jump ball. Afterward, it appeared he wasn’t swinging his arms as much:

That ostensibly wasn’t the case, and he said his range of motion is fine and the dislocation isn’t impacting his game too significantly:

No, I don’t feel limited with this, but it is, like, if I run into somebody or bang into somebody… it’s not like if I run into somebody with the other shoulder where I just run through it, I kind of feel it a little bit. It’s not an all-the-way healthy shoulder, so I mean, I will feel little things, but it’s nothing I can’t handle. It’s not to the point where I can’t contribute to the team, and like I said, be comfortable in what I gotta do out there on the court, so I feel like I can play through it, and I’m gonna play through it.

However, both he and the team recognize that in the offseason—if not before—he’ll need to go under the knife. That was a topic of discussion in the immediate aftermath of the dislocation when he was being held out with what was termed “shoulder instability,” but Rollins and the team opted to put it off. He feels he’s healthy enough to be on the floor:

I’ve thought about it, but like I said, if I feel like I’m able to play, and I’m healthy enough to do what I need to do on the court to contribute to the team and play my game, I feel like there’s no reason for me to get surgery now. So I’m not really worried about that right now. I’m just worried about making the most of these opportunities and to just help my team win however I can.

Doc Rivers and the training staff are also monitoring it closely, of course. They sound more than a little worried. On Courtside with Gale Klappa, Rivers stated that he thinks Rollins will require surgery in the offseason: “we’re still very concerned, just being honest about it. You know, we know one bad bump for him would lead that way, maybe even now. So we’re very cautious with it.” He told the media a week earlier that “it’s something that’s there. There’s nothing he can do about it… With Ryan, our hope is that he can get through the year because it’s not an easy injury. Shoulders come back out, and we know that. And every time he drives or gets hit, we’re worried about it.”

But Doc recognizes that he’s plenty capable while playing through it, noting a lefty dunk he threw down late in a victory over the Wizards last month:

Likely, part of the calculus behind why Rollins isn’t opting for surgery is his contract status. The 2022 second-round pick signed a two-year two-way deal last February after splitting his first two seasons between Golden State and Washington, only getting into 22 contests before coming to Milwaukee. After an impressive Summer League, he saw spot action over the first two weeks of this season, suddenly entering the rotation after an early season injury to Gary Trent Jr. Against Toronto just three games later was when he dislocated it.

He looked pretty good in that limited action but put simply, he did not have enough of an NBA body of work to cut short his season and expect to get anything more than an Exhibit 10 contract this offseason. His two-way contract expires in July, and since his salary was not guaranteed in November, the Bucks could have waived him and filled the spot with no penalty. Still, even with his salary now guaranteed, it doesn’t count toward Milwaukee’s cap, so releasing him wouldn’t be a problem should he get hurt again.

That’s absolutely what he and the Bucks are trying to avoid while playing him as needed. Each game that goes by where he looks the part of a productive NBA player makes him more likely to get a standard contract later this season or this offseason. If he were rehabbing right now, teams would look at him as totally unproven by summer, and he’d almost certainly be limited to a training camp deal or another two-way. Next year would be his fourth year in the league and his final year of eligibility for a two-way.

Players under two-way contracts can be active for no more than 50 games in the regular season and are not eligible to appear in the postseason. For that to happen, Rollins would have to be converted to a standard contract worth a pro-rated portion of his minimum salary. Usually, these deals are multi-year arrangements when converted midseason, but the following year isn’t guaranteed, nor are any subsequent years. That’s what you can expect if Rollins does end up being converted.

Rollins has appeared in 23 games so far this year, and with the Bucks nearing the 41-game midpoint, he’d have to be converted to be an every-night player in the rotation. However, he hasn’t been that when the rest of the team is healthy. In recent weeks, he’s essentially the 10th man: whoever is out for a game, regardless of position, Rollins jumps in. Fortunately for him, the opportunities have been there, and he’s responded to them well enough that should a standard roster spot open (Milwaukee currently has the maximum 15 filled), he could be in line for the promotion.

Rivers seems to have few reservations about playing him heavier minutes if necessary, despite the fear of re-aggravating or further damaging his shoulder. But he recognizes that they’re working against that 50-game limit:

“It’s not the playing time, it’s just the number of games. And so for us, if we think he’s that valuable, at some point, we would have to convert him to a full-time contract… We’re gonna play who needs to play, and at some point we need to, we should make a change, we will, if he proves that. You know, this is a competition always. And if not, we’ll try to save as many days just as we can.”

So while it doesn’t sound like Rollins will get promoted to the standard roster imminently, if Milwaukee dips down to 14 or 13 men after the February 6th trade deadline, he’ll be one of the first candidates for a spot, perhaps even more likely than anyone on the buyout market. However, if he reinjures his shoulder between now and then, his deal definitely wouldn’t get converted into a standard contract before this offseason, if at all. Still, even if he undergoes surgery come summer, the Bucks should lock him up before July when the moment is right.