Is a Lyles deal the key to future financial flexibility?
With the NBA trade deadline fast approaching, let’s get into another installment of Bucks trade candidates! After previously delving into Toumani Camara and Robert Williams III from the Portland Trail Blazers, let’s take a look at the Sacramento Kings’ Trey Lyles.
The Player
Trey Lyles, 6’9”, 234 lb. big man
Season averages: 6.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG, .394/.352/.765
Coming out of Kentucky in 2015, Trey Lyles has made a living by providing shooting at the big position as a four/five tweener. He knows how to exist within a system, make quick decisions, and play basketball. If the goal of getting Lyles is to inject shot-blocking and rugged play into the group, he is not your guy. But if you are looking for a quick trigger to play alongside Giannis and make the two-time MVP’s life easier, Trey is a solid option.
Lyles was traded to Sacramento from Detroit in the same four-team deal that netted the Bucks Serge Ibaka in 2022 (thank the basketball gods for that!). Since then, he has been a key part of the Kings’ revival back to NBA prominence. Regarding health, Trey is a reliable commodity, playing 60-70 games in most of his NBA seasons. With a very malleable expiring contract and versatile game, Lyles is sure to be a hot name in the coming weeks leading up to the trade deadline.
The Trade
Milwaukee could acquire Trey in a few different ways. They could offer assets—such as their own ‘31 second—and complete the deal using Pat Connaughton’s salary. But for a Kings team that wants to win now, they might be more interested in a guy like Bobby Portis, who offers them something different than what they get from their current backup centre, Alex Len. Portis could space the floor on second units, opening the paint for downhill drivers. He also offers a true post-up presence who is a real threat to score in a variety of ways, whether that be a mid-range jumper or his trusty right hook.
And let’s be clear: Portis, in a vacuum, is a more impactful player than Lyles. The motivations behind this deal for the Bucks would have less to do with basketball and more with future finances and their willingness to pay Bobby’s next contract. Trey makes two-thirds of what Portis makes this season and is on an expiring contract, meaning the Bucks would save money and have guaranteed flexibility at the season’s end. That is not necessarily the case with Portis, who has a player option for next season and is likely to ask for a substantial raise if he enters free agency. Granted, Lyles would also get a pay bump if the Bucks were to bring him back, but his salary might end up where BP’s is currently (around $12m). Even so, to offset the on-court downgrade from Bobby to Trey, the Kings would throw in their own unprotected seconds in ‘26 and ‘27.
The Fit
Functionally, Trey and Bobby are similar players. Both are tweener big men who struggle matching up with behemoth centres or speedy guards on defence. Portis is a better scorer, has more low-post game, and is a superior rebounder; however, Lyles arguably has a quicker shot from three and is lighter on his feet defensively.
Interestingly, since arriving in Sacramento, Trey’s three-point attempts have risen each season—as has the percentage he shot that year—except for this current season. He shot 2.6 threes per game (36%) in ‘21, 3.2 (36%) in ‘22, and shot 3.8 (38%) in ‘23. Now, this season he’s at 4.1 attempts—so the attempts keep rising—but the percentage has dropped to 35%. Lyles’ scoring and overall shooting percentage are both down as well. This may be luck-related, or maybe the whole Mike Brown thing affected him. But for what it’s worth, I was recently listening to the Kevin O’Connor Show featuring Kings aficionados Morgan Ragan and Deuce Mason of the Deuce & Mo Podcast, who said that Trey came into camp out of shape and is now finally rounding into form.
Playing next to Giannis, you would expect that three-point attempts number to jump even higher, maybe to around five per game. And this is getting to the theoretical appeal of Lyles from the Bucks’ point of view. If one was trying to make the case, one might argue that with Damian Lillard on the team, the need for Portis post-ups is nowhere near as strong as before Lillard’s arrival. Thus, with Trey, you’re asking him to post up occasionally—because he does have that in his toolkit—but mainly, you want him spacing the floor on high volume. For reference, Kristaps Porziņģis has shot close to six threes per game in two of his last three seasons; this is what you would want from Lyles.
And on defence, Trey is basically Bobby but slightly better in most areas. He’s a little more mobile, which helps him in a switching scheme or even an aggressive hedge-and-recover strategy defending pick-and-rolls. To be clear, Lyles isn’t some panacea on defence and won’t provide shot-blocking or rebounding of any significant magnitude. Still, he is a heady player who generally doesn’t beat himself.
Let us know how you feel about Lyles. Are he and Portis so duplicative that you may as well keep BP? Should they be searching for a more athletic, true centre instead of a tweener such as Trey? Is making financially motivated moves while trying to contend something you’re against?