The oft-injured former Celtic would add plenty of athleticism and defense to the frontcourt.
It’s apparently Portland Trail Blazers week here on Brew Hoop, as we’re continuing with a theme today—which marks three weeks until the NBA trade deadline—in looking at Bucks trade candidates. Like Toumani Camara, who Jackson profiled on Monday, the next name on our list also would come to Milwaukee from the Pacific Northwest: 27-year-old big Robert Williams III, a name familiar to Bucks fans after his many years in Boston. As you might know, a lot has happened since Williams left the Celtics, but he could be a valuable present and future Buck now that he’s back on the floor.
The Player
Robert Williams III, 6’9”, 237 lb. big man
Season averages: 6.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, 1.7 BPG, .717/.333/.923
The rim-running big has mostly played the five in his career, making up for being an inch or two shorter than the average center with a crazy 7’6” wingspan. He’s routinely among the league leaders in field goal percentage when healthy, thanks to taking 72% of his career shot attempts within three feet. Long one of the NBA’s top lob threats, Bucks fans remember him terrorizing Milwaukee inside during their 2022 second-round series with Boston, and he started all but one game for them in the Eastern Conference Finals and NBA Finals. 2021–22 stands as his finest season, finishing seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting and being selected to the All-Defensive Second Team.
Since then, however, he’s played in only 53 games over the following two years and change. Williams first underwent knee surgery (on his left) late in that 2021–22 campaign and still managed to return for the postseason, but needed a second cleanup procedure in the subsequent offseason. That limited him to 35 contests in 2022–23 when he was also hampered by a hamstring strain. He was beset by injuries during his first two years in the league as well and has only appeared in more than 50 games twice in his career.
As part of the Jrue Holiday trade, he was dealt to Portland shortly before last season but only suited up six times before suffering patellar damage and a torn ligament in his right knee. That necessitated season-ending reconstructive surgery, and he sustained another hamstring strain in training camp this offseason. Since returning in early November, he’s also missed time with an ankle sprain and a concussion.
Despite all this, he’s flashed the game that made Williams a promising big several years ago and a key part of the Holiday trade. His current state of health—however long it lasts—has apparently made him one of the most coveted big men on the trade market, per Jake Fischer of The Stein Line. His productiveness in just 12 games back also means, according to Fischer, that he’s not a lock to be moved by the Blazers this season.
The Trade
Houston is a bit thin in the frontcourt behind Alperen Sengun: Jabari Smith Jr. is out 4–8 weeks with a hand injury, while their two reserve centers—Steven Adams and Jock Landale—are just not very good and don’t play very much. Despite lacking an elite rim protector, the Rockets are the NBA’s third-ranked defense and rank eighth-best in terms of opponent shooting in the restricted area. So they can probably deal with Portis’ drawbacks on that end, while they could use his scoring punch with an offense that’s closer to average than great and really struggles in the halfcourt. They’d also have Portis’ Bird rights this summer, allowing them to go over the cap to re-sign him if he opts out of his contract’s final year.
Meanwhile, the Blazers get three second-round picks, just like the Hornets received yesterday this week for Nick Richards (also landing Josh Okogie). You might be thinking that Robert Williams is better/more accomplished than Richards, and that may be true, but I think Portland would do well to get three seconds, given Williams’ lengthy injury history. Yes, he looks solid as ever in his 12 games back, but I’m skeptical any rival would compensate Portland with the first-round pick he might be worth if he’d played more in the last two calendar years.
The Blazers also have a bit of a logjam in the frontcourt, with max-salaried Deandre Ayton starting ahead of seventh-overall pick Donovan Clingan and Williams. Adams wouldn’t play much in Portland either, and his expiring deal would extinguish one remaining year of contractual obligation to Williams. Though this might not get more young talent to the Blazers, who are flush with youth in their backcourt, three distant seconds will help them add a role player or two once they’re back in contention. Perhaps they could get another young wing like Cam Whitmore instead of two seconds from the Rockets, but that might be too steep a cost for Houston when Portis could elect free agency in July.
The Fit
Robert Williams immediately becomes not only the Bucks’ Portis replacement in the frontcourt but the heir apparent to Brook Lopez at center. While Lopez is still a superior rim protector, plus his scoring and shooting numbers are in line with every other season, he turns 37 in April. His contract expires this summer, and Milwaukee has his Bird rights, so they could re-sign him to any new contract, but if it’s a multiyear contract, some of the salary could be deferred due to the NBA’s Over 38 rule. In any case, if Lopez re-signs, it will probably be on a one-year deal or one-year deal with an option.
While Williams is shorter than Giannis and about 30 pounds lighter than Lopez, he certainly plays much more like a traditional center than either. That brings to mind the classic spacing concerns with players alongside Giannis, but those have been somewhat alleviated since Damian Lillard came to town. For example, lineups that have paired Giannis and Andre Jackson Jr. have still managed to shoot 36.3% from deep in over 450 minutes this year, but those two have just a +111.1 ORtg together per Cleaning The Glass. However, Williams is a much more credible offensive threat than AJax in the dunker spot, where the latter often finds himself.
Of course, the boon of this trade for Milwaukee is Williams’ defense. Obviously, Portis has long been a negative on that end of the floor. But Williams isn’t just any upgrade—he’s a much more mobile and athletic big man than any the Bucks have employed in years. You’d have to go all the way back to John Henson to find a capable interior defender whose length and footspeed are comparable to Williams’, even after multiple lower-body injuries. Williams is switchable onto players that Lopez is much less suited for and would give the Bucks a completely different look in defensive-oriented lineups with or without Giannis. He’s also superior on the offensive glass, and I don’t doubt that Williams is a fundamentally better rebounder than the iron-handed Portis, who doesn’t use two hands to grab boards often enough.
About the only drawback for the Bucks on the court here is the offensive production you’d lose as Portis exits. The three-level scoring he possesses can’t be replaced by Williams much at all, who only made his first career three this season (of seven career attempts). Though Williams might have the better floater game with a career 55.8% between 3–10 feet on similar volume to Portis, the fact is that you’re rarely getting double-digit scoring from Williams and he’ll probably go scoreless some nights. It’ll be on the likes of AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr., and Khris Middleton (as long as he’s coming off the bench) to provide second-unit firepower.
Still, that might be a worthy tradeoff for the versatility Williams would bring defensively, his ability to play alongside both Giannis and Lopez on opposing fours and fives, plus the lob potential as a roll man. This also could allow the Bucks to use lesser assets like Chris Livingston, Delon Wright, or MarJon Beauchamp to swap for a cheaper, more offensive-oriented player like Cam Reddish or Alec Burks, making up more of what they’d lose from Portis. If he remains healthy off Milwaukee’s bench, he could be a key defender down the stretch and in line for a starting role next year. If he keeps getting hurt, his $13.3m expiring salary could be useful in a trade this offseason.
What do you think of Portis for Williams as a Bucks fan? Are you too worried about his health to pull the trigger on this? And since Blazers fans tend to show up around here, how much are us Bucks “homers” “rage-baiting” you for suggesting that Williams is only worth three seconds (ok, that was only one guy)? We’ll be back with more trade candidates next week.