On Saturday, the Milwaukee Bucks (48-34) won’t have Damian Lillard for the start of their series against Indiana Pacers (50-32). Lillard has not played since March 18 due to deep vein thrombosis in his right calf, so the news wasn’t unexpected.
However, ESPN’s Shams Charania did report that Lillard has made “significant progress” in his recovery and the Bucks are still optimism that Lillard will be medically cleared to return at some point during the playoffs.
“Damian’s most recent weekly scan shows that his injury has significantly improved, which will enable him to move ahead safely with increased basketball activity,” Milwaukee general manager Jon Horst said in a statement. “Damian’s health remains our No. 1 priority. We have followed strict protocols and will continue to do so. We are pleased with the positive news about Damian’s progress.”
Analyzing How Damian Lillard’s Status Affects Bucks Playoff Rotation & Prospective?
While it will be tough for Milwaukee to replace Lillard’s experience and production—the 34-year-old averaged 31.3 points in 39 minutes a game for the Bucks in four playoff games last season—the Bucks should at least enter the playoffs with confidence. The Bucks went 32-26 with Lillard in the lineup and 16-8 in the 24 contests without him.
Damian Lillard Update
In an update to Lillard’s status on Thursday, Sam Amick and Eric Nehm of The Athletic said that Lillard “has been cleared of a deep vein thrombosis and is off the blood-thinning medication.” Amick and Nehm added that Lillard remains out for Game 1 and his status for Game 2 is unknown. The duo also reported that Lillard participated in 3-on-3 on Wednesday and was a full participant today. However, the Bucks didn’t do much five-on-five work.
“Today, he did everything,” Rivers told Amick and Nehm. “There’s no limitations at all, you know, other than his lungs and timing and everything else.”
“You don’t miss all that and just jump back in,” Rivers continued. “It’s just gonna take a minute. I mean, it’s not like he’s been injured and working out. He’s been injured — and that’s what we can call it now, I guess — without working out, that’s hard.”
Milwaukee has been one of the hottest teams over the last 14 games. The Bucks are 10-4, including winning their last eight games, with a +5.1 scoring margin. A big reason for the Bucks’ recent success has been the play of their frontcourt, including Giannis Antetokounmpo playing some of his basketball for the campaign.
Kyle Kuzma has been much more efficient since Lillard has been sidelined, compiling 15.5 points and 4.5 rebouds with shooting slash line of .497/.369/.628. Brook Lopez, Gary Trent Jr., Kevin Porter Jr., and Ryan Rollins have stepped up their production. While Antetounmpo is the Bucks’ most important player and will need to carry the team. It is likely that Trent’s, Porter’s and Rollins’ performance in the postseason will determine if they can get past the Pacers.
Projecting the Bucks Playoff Rotation
With Lillard out for at least the first two games of the Indiana series, Rivers’ first major decision appears to be whether to start Rollins or Porter.
Rollins is in his second season in Milwaukee. The 22-year-old point guard, who appeared in 56 games for the Bucks this season, had his two-way contract converted to a standard deal in March. He started 19 games this season for the Bucls, including 11 of the team’s final 14 games.
The Bucks acquired Porter from the Los Angeles Clippers at the trade deadline this past season for Marjon Beauchamp. Porter appeared in 30 contests for the Bucks, starting two.
Before delving into the the point guard situation, Antetokounmpo, Lopez, Kuzma, and Taureen Prince are locked into the starting lineup. Bobby Portis, who returned from his suspension on April 8, and Trent Jr. are guaranteed on being in the Bucks’ playoff rotation.
Rollins, Porter, Pat Connaughton, Jericho Sims, AJ Green, and Andre Jackson Jr. are realistic options for Rivers. Rivers gave 11 players regular minutes during Milwaukee’s first-round loss to Indiana last season. However, Lillard missed the series’ final two games, and only eight players appeared in at least five contests.
Contenders For Starting Point Guard
Ryan Rollins
Rollins saw the most action of his young career, appearing in 56 games and 19 starts. Rollins stepped up his production over the season’s final month, averaging 10.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He knocked down 1.7 threes and compiled one double-double over this stretch with shooting splits of .525/.478/.750. The Bucks went 8-3 with Rollins in the starting lineup over the last 14 games and 14-5 overall.
Kevin Porter Jr.
While Rollins got most of the starts over the last 14 contests, he and Porter essentially shared the lead guard duties. Porter averaged 14.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.5 steals. He scored in double figures in 39 of 75 appearances while compiling two double-doubles and one triple-double. The Bucks were 19-11 in the games Porter appeared in, and he totalled a +1.5 scoring margin.
Andre Jackson Jr.
Jackson started 43 of his 67 games this year for the Bucks. But the 23-year-old has seen just six minutes a game over his last 16 appearances and is not a factor on the offensive end. He saw 53 minutes of playoff action last season, and don’t expect him to get much more playing time this year, if he reaches that threshold.
Other Rotation Contenderss
AJ Green
Green is not a point guard, but he should be in contention for a regular spot in Rivers’ playoff rotation. The 25-year-old is coming off a career season and is one of the Bucks’ best shooters, knocking down 42.1% of his three-point attempts for his career. Defense is a concern, which is the case for the Bucks’ entire backcourt except for Rollins and Porter.
Jericho Sims
Milwaukee acquired Sims as part of the three-team Kuzma trade. The 6-10 big is a fantastic rebounder and interior defender, although he does not provide much offensively. Sims served as Lopez’s primary backup, with Portis suspended, but he has been out since March 18 with a thumb injury. He is not on the Bucks injury report for tomorrow’s Game 1 and Rivers previously said he expects the 26-year-old to be available.
Pat Connaughton
Connaughton is a professional through and through. The 32-year-old has seen his production drop in the last three seasons; he only averaged 14 minutes and appeared in 41 contests this season. He produced 5.3 points a game, his second lowest since his second season, while shooting .469/.321/.774.
Final Word
While it is fantastic news that Lillard is healthy enough to ramp up his return, there is no definitive date for his return. So, expect Rivers to continue to start Rollins though he and Porter will likely continue to share lead guard guties. Porter should end up with more time on the court than Rollins due to his scoring and experience.
Here is a look at the Bucks projected starting lineup in Game 1 against the Pacers: Rollins, Antetokounmpo, Lopez, Kuzma, and Prince. Portis, Porter, and Green figure to be the first three players off the bench. Sims figures to round out the Bucks rotation. Connaughton figures to be the 10th man until Lillard returns with Jackson getting off the bench in emergency situations.
Milwaukee won the season series 3-1 though all four games included Lillard. The Bucks split the two playoff games that Lillard missed against the Pacers last year before seeing their season come to a conclusion in Game 6. If the Bucks can earn a split in the first two games and Lillard returns for Game 3, maybe Milwaukee can avenge Indiana. Still, I like Indiana to win the series in six or seven games as they have too much firepower for Milwaukee even with Lillard.
Photo Credit: © Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
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