What would it take for Frelick to be an above-average starter?
The Brewers have a solid group of outfielders lined up for next season, so where does that leave Sal Frelick?
Jackson Chourio will be a staple in the lineup for years to come. Christian Yelich will (hopefully) be fully healthy again. Garrett Mitchell could be a rising star himself. Even Blake Perkins fills a similar role as Frelick with his defensive prowess.
Yelich might be the primary designated hitter, so perhaps the outfield depth won’t be as restrictive to Frelick as it seems at first glance. But it seems like Frelick will need one of two things to happen to be guaranteed the full-time role.
First, his defense is excellent. If the Brewers deem his Gold Glove-caliber defense worthy of a full-time spot, his production at the plate might not be a concern. Not only has he shown himself to be one of the best outfielders in baseball, but the Brewers also considered moving him to third base last spring. If he continues to develop his defensive versatility, that’s one other avenue where he could be certain to help the team on any given day.
The most important concern for Frelick’s long-term role, though, is how he grows at the plate. His exciting, contact-oriented style always puts pressure on the defense. He had an elite strikeout rate of just 14.9% and whiffed less often than nearly every player in baseball.
Yet despite his great bat-to-ball skill, that profile still led to a subpar offensive stat line. His .259 batting average wasn’t high enough to carry his low power output, settling at an 86 wRC+.
Frelick could potentially push for a much higher batting average this season. On July 1, he carried a 30-game rolling batting average of .322. For a player like this, so much of his production is going to rely on his BABIP, but he gets the ball in play so often that he’s going to run hot at times.
Taking a look at his Baseball Savant page, it’s clear that he has a knack for making contact, even if it isn’t hard contact.
Frelick’s groundball rate of 47.7% is relatively high, ranking 24th out of 129 qualified hitters. But this was a teamwide approach, with players like William Contreras, Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, and Jackson Chourio all hitting the ball on the ground more often. Is it possible Frelick could turn more of that into line drives? He doesn’t need to hit home runs to be a productive bat. He’s fast enough to turn these groundballs into singles, but he’s also fast enough to convert line drives in the outfield into doubles.
One concern that might arise from a player with low exit velocity numbers is, how does he handle fastballs? Frelick was actually quite productive here, hitting .289 against fastballs. However, he had a -4 run value against four-seam fastballs but had a great +5 run value against sinkers. If he can handle heaters, this sets up a decent foundation for his profile that forces pitchers to maneuver around his consistent approach.
It was breaking balls that gave him the most trouble, hitting just .180. So, this might not even be a situation where his only solution is lifting the ball more, but simply using his contact skills to measure up breaking balls more effectively to limit that weakness.
Frelick’s going to see a lot of time on the field next year due to his glove. If he’s able to elevate his game at the plate, he could become another vital part of a Brewers lineup that’s already capable of stringing together long rallies.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.