Why it doesn’t matter if the Brewers overpaid for Quinn Priester

If Milwaukee can get quality starts out of the right hander, yesterday’s trade is a win no matter what

On Monday morning, the Brewers announced the acquisition of 24-year-old starting pitcher Quinn Priester in exchange for a competitive balance pick in this year’s draft, outfield prospect Yophery Rodriguez, and a player to be named later.

Priester was originally a first-round pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates back in 2018 but has been held back by a fastball that opposing hitters have so far treated like batting practice. The right-hander has ranked in the bottom 4% in hard-hit percentage and bottom 5% in strikeout percentage in both seasons in which he’s made a major league appearance. That’s bad. But he’s also shown enough that he’s been trusted to start for two organizations with solid pitching options, the Pirates and Red Sox. He would be starting for the Sox right now if not for great springs from Richard Fitts and Sean Newcomb.

The Brewers’ rotation has been decimated by injuries, so it makes sense that a team with legitimate playoff aspirations would scramble to find reliable options as soon as possible. Freddy Peralta and Priester are currently the only two starting pitchers on the active roster. Milwaukee’s de facto number two starter is Chad Patrick, still listed as a reliever because he’s only started two games in the majors. The Brewers have eight starting pitching options currently on the IL. Things are getting dire, and it’s only April 9 — the Brewers obviously don’t want to start the season in too much of a hole.

Most of the coverage of the trade has focused on the fact that Milwaukee gave up a lot for Priester. Rodriguez, a 19-year-old outfielder who’s hitting .417 so far this season, was their No. 7 prospect (in a stacked farm system). The pick is No. 33 overall in this year’s draft.

Without even considering the PTBNL, it seems like a steeper than average price for a pitcher with a career 6.23 ERA. A highly ranked prospect and a first-round comp pick are worth more than a pitcher who couldn’t make the Red Sox rotation. Because of the value discrepancy, one of the popular takes after news of the trade broke was that the Brewers lost the trade.

I say it doesn’t matter whether it seems like Milwaukee overpaid or not.

For starters, I have confidence in the Brewers’ front office. Milwaukee hasn’t really been fleeced in the Matt Arnold era. Most notably, star catcher William Contreras and reliever Joel Payamps were acquired for outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who is now in Triple-A with the Dodgers. The Josh Hader trade initially looked bad, but the Brewers at least got Ruiz (who turned into Contreras/Payamps) and Robert Gasser. Same with the Corbin Burnes deal, but that return ended up not being all that bad either — yielding the starting shortstop (Joey Ortiz), a pitcher who still has legitimate upside (DL Hall), and a top prospect (Blake Burke).

This trend goes hand in hand with the Brewers’ track record of success with reclamation projects. For the past few years, the Brewers have found a way to get above-average results out of unheralded players, often pitchers with previously mediocre stats. Tobias Myers, Elvis Peguero, and Trevor Megill are examples currently on the Brewers’ roster. It’s obvious to me that in giving up that much, Arnold thinks he has something in Priester — an assumption backed by reports that Priester is in line to start Thursday. Milwaukee needs rotation help right now, so Arnold must have made this trade because he believes Priester can help the Brewers win games right now.

The other aspect to consider is Milwaukee’s organizational depth. The Brewers, who have one of the best farm systems in baseball, boast six outfield prospects in their top 30. They have another three or four who could end up playing corner outfield. Three of the outfield prospects (Brailyn Antunez, Kenny Fenelon, and Luis Lara) are around the same age as Rodriguez with similar upside. Milwaukee also has young, talented outfielders at the big league level in Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Blake Perkins. They could have probably gotten more for Rodriguez, but they didn’t necessarily need him, either.

While the Brewers have a deep outfield, they have an extremely shallow starting rotation right now. Freddy Peralta is signed through 2026 and has been lights out in his two starts so far this year. After him? Brandon Woodruff hasn’t pitched since 2023 and is still rehabbing. Nestor Cortes is injured and a free agent after the season. Jose Quintana is injured, 36, and has yet to throw a pitch in a Brewer uniform. Tobias Myers and Aaron Civale are injured. DL Hall and Robert Gasser won’t be back anytime soon either, and neither have had much success in the majors to this point. Jacob Misiorowski, the Brewers’ only pitching prospect ranked in their top 10, has struggled with control issues in the minors and isn’t ready yet.

This trade is hard for me to frame as a mistake or a loss when you look at it as Arnold dealing from a place of organizational depth. Why not pay a little extra if you have the money? The Brewers aren’t in danger of running out of outfielders, draft picks, or players to be named later anytime soon. None of the guys they gave up are anywhere near a sure thing — remember Lewis Brinson? Milwaukee is quite literally running out of pitchers right now and is convinced Priester can help them win games they might not otherwise win. Time is of the essence as the Brewers look to avoid digging themselves an early season hole.

Yes, maybe Arnold could have gotten more value for what he gave up or could have gotten Priester for less with a little bit of cajoling, but the problem with the term “overpaid” is that it’s a relative term. Arnold did overpay in terms of the “trade value” of the prospects he gave up compared to the “trade value” of the player he acquired. That doesn’t mean he lost the trade, just that he values those players differently than the general public. We never actually know how a trade is going to turn out when it’s made, so it seems a little crazy to me to judge a deal based on who “overpaid” when the trade might look drastically different in a year.

Arnold may have been willing to overpay because he valued being able to get the deal done sooner rather than later. He may have been willing to overpay because he knows Priester will look like a steal in hindsight, or because the Brewers didn’t like Rodriguez as much as we thought. One could say the Brewers overpaid because Priester should have come cheaper, but if he plays well and justifies the trade, nobody will care what he should have gone for back when the trade happened.

I think it’s much more important to ask whether Milwaukee “won” the trade — in other words, did they get better?

The answer to that question will hinge on whether or not the Brewers are correct in their evaluation of Priester. Milwaukee is inarguably a better team with one more solid starting rotation option, which Priester very well could be. If Priester isn’t good, then the Brewers would have lost the trade no matter what they gave up. Due to the Brewers’ track record with reclamation projects, I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Milwaukee needed to do something — now, let’s see if it pays off.