Taking a look at the organization’s best first base prospects
More than any other group of sports fans, baseball fans love to believe in curses. But in a world of Billy Goats and Bambinos, the most perplexing curse might be “The Curse of the Brewers’ First Baseman.” Since the departure of Prince Fielder following the 2011 season, the Brewers have had 11 different players lead the team in innings at first base. That’s 11 different everyday first basemen in 13 seasons.
This revolving door of first basemen has not been a well-functioning revolving door, but rather one that you manually push while you think you are doing something wrong and wishing you had just used the regular door. In other words, the Brewers have had just two seasons in the last 13 years, during which their first baseman was worth more than 1.8 WAR (Jesus Aguilar in 2018 and Adam Lind in 2015). Not even Chris Carter’s 41 home runs in 2016 netted a WAR greater than 1.8 – defense matters folks. What’s worse, in the last five years, the Brewers’ everyday first basemen have combined for an unimpressive -0.7 WAR.
The Brewers “splurged” last season and brought in Rhys Hoskins, who they thought would be the one to break the curse. But his -0.2 WAR and 98 OPS+ last season suggest he was worse than a league-average first baseman. There is hope that he will bounce back this season and be closer to the player he was for six seasons with the Phillies. After all, sometimes it takes more time than expected to fully recover from a major surgery (see Jesse Winker’s 2024 season, and then pour yourself another Old Fashioned).
With the Crew tied down to Rhys Hoskins for one more season, the search for the next everyday first baseman begins again in 2026. Luckily, the Brewers front office is aware of this need and has loaded up on corner infielders in recent drafts. In fact, five of the top 17 Brewers prospects (per MLB Pipeline’s rankings) are capable of manning first base. Let’s take a look at each of these five prospects (and one additional wild card) and determine which could break the curse and solve the Brewers’ first base woes.
Option 1: Tyler Black (Brewers’ No. 5 prospect)
The first name on this list is likely one you are already familiar with. Drafted 33rd overall in 2021 out of Wright State, Black made his MLB debut with the Brewers last year, and in a small sample size was unimpressive. However, offensively, Black’s profile fits the Brewers’ identity seamlessly — he plays hard, puts the ball in play, and wreaks havoc on the basepaths. The recent re-signing of Jake Bauers might indicate that the Brewers’ front office doesn’t believe in Black’s ability to be the backup first baseman in 2025.
The good: Black has elite bat-to-ball skills and excellent plate discipline. In 2023, a season that saw Black split time between Double-A and Triple-A, he sported an impressive 0.88 BB/K ratio. This ratio dropped slightly to 0.7 in Black’s 102 games with Nashville in 2024. Additionally, Black has posted a contact rate above 80% and an out-of-zone swing rate below 25% throughout his time with the Sounds. Black also possesses elite base-stealing ability, swiping 78 bags over his last two seasons including 47 in just 84 games in his 2023 stint with Double-A Biloxi.
The bad: Defense. Black has moved around to several different positions throughout his minor league career, trying to find a place where his glove is not a liability. Despite all of his big league starts coming at first base (and DH) and playing only on the dirt throughout his college career, many think Black profiles best as a corner outfielder. His weak arm, poor instincts, and slow hands do not bode well for an infielder. It should be telling that in several cases last season, Pat Murphy chose Rhys Hoskins’ glove at first base over Black’s. Additionally, Black doesn’t possess the type of power potential that you would hope to see from a bat-first first baseman.
Option 2: Luke Adams (Brewers’ No. 9 prospect)
Still likely a year or two away from his MLB debut, 20-year-old Luke Adams is one of the most intriguing prospects in the Brewers system. The 2022 12th-round draft pick went from being an unranked prospect at this time last year to the organization’s ninth-best prospect heading into the 2025 season, after posting the third-best wRC+ among all qualified hitters in the Brewers’ minor league system last year.
The good: He gets on base. For a young player, Adams possesses impressive plate discipline which resulted in a BB/K ratio of 0.88 in 2024. Adams spent the entire 2024 season in High-A with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, and his .443 OBP (inflated slightly by 40 HBP in 101 games) was second in the Midwest League. Despite hitting just 11 HR last season, at 6’4” and with a big leg kick, Adams’ frame and approach lead evaluators to believe that an uptick in bat speed could be on the horizon. This bat speed increase makes Adams’ profile become more traditional for a corner infielder and will likely result in more extra-base hits.
The bad: While Adams has exemplified a knack for getting on base through drawing walks and HBP, his hit tool has been average, sporting a sub-.235 batting average in each of his two minor league seasons. Though his hands are relatively quiet, scouts also worry that the lower body movement in his swing could result in higher swing-and-miss rates in the future, but for now, Adams has limited the strikeouts.
Option 3: Mike Boeve (Brewers’ No. 12 prospect)
When the Brewers drafted Boeve in the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft, he became the earliest draft pick ever out of the University of Nebraska-Omaha. So far in his minor league career, Boeve has justified his position in Nebraska-Omaha history, but his profile comes with a few concerns.
The good: Boeve possesses elite contact and plate discipline skills (are you starting to notice a trend in the types of players that the Brewers draft?) Boeve struck out just nine times in 211 PA in his final season at UNO. Nine times. While Boeve’s K% has increased slightly in the minor leagues (17% in AA in 2024), his short swing has resulted in a batting average above .320 in both of his professional seasons.
The bad: Although he possesses an elite hit tool, Boeve doesn’t offer much else. Below-average speed and quickness limit both his defense and baserunning value to slightly below average. Additionally, the Brewers were hoping that Boeve could tap into his raw power, but his contact-first approach and high ground ball rate remained last season, decreasing the likelihood of a sudden onset of power. Boeve dealt with injuries throughout the 2024 season and a full season of at-bats in 2025 should give a better understanding of his future value.
Option 4: Eric Bitonti (Brewers’ No. 14 prospect)
Drafted in the third round of the 2023 MLB Draft, Bitonti just looks like a ballplayer. Those old-school scouts would love him. At just 19 years old, Bitonti is the prospect furthest from the big leagues on this list, but his power potential and early promotion to Low-A make him worth keeping an eye on.
The good: Bitonti possesses a great deal of raw power which has already translated to a high slugging percentage in pro ball. In 2024, Bitonti slugged .544 with 16 HR and an ISO of .262 in just 79 games between the ACL Brewers and Low-A. Bitonti also drew his fair share of walks in 2024, posting a respectable 16.4% walk rate and a .402 OBP. With a 60-grade arm, Bitonti could remain at third base. Drafted as a shortstop, Bitonti has the positional versatility that the Brewers have been known for in the last few years. That being said, a majority of his starts in Single-A last year came at 1B.
The bad: Bitonti’s biggest development concern will be his proclivity for strikeouts. Struggling to lay off the high fastball, Bitonti posted a 29.5% strikeout rate in 28 games in Low-A last year. A 30-grade runner, Bitonti was still able to swipe 12 bags in 79 games in 2024, but don’t expect this surprising baserunning value to continue. His game still requires some development and refinement before he is ready for the big leagues.
Option 5: Blake Burke (Brewers’ No. 17 prospect)
Brewers fans should remember Burke as the final component of the Corbin Burnes trade. Coming off of a College World Series win with Tennessee, Burke was taken 34th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft by the Brewers with the Competitive Balance pick they received from the Orioles. If Burke turns out to be the first baseman of the future, the Burnes trade may start to look pretty lopsided in favor of the Crew.
The good: Power, power, and power. In his final season with Tennessee, Burke posted a .702 slugging percentage, hitting 20 HR in 72 games. Despite power being his calling card, Burke developed into a complete hitter during his time at Tennessee. He decreased his K% from 31% as a freshman to 15% by the end of his college career. He also became less pull-heavy without sacrificing any of his power, even producing a 31-game hitting streak in his final year.
The bad: Burke’s defense is average at best. His lack of mobility and quickness limit his defensive potential. However, much like his hitting, Burke’s defense improved incrementally throughout his college career. His lack of speed also limits his potential as a base stealer, but he did steal 11 bases on 13 attempts in his final year at Tennessee. Burke played just five games in High-A ball this summer after being drafted and will need at least another full season before he is big-league ready.
Option 6: Ernesto “el espectáculo” Martinez Jr. (not ranked)
After spending six seasons in the Brewers’ farm system, Martinez entered the 2024-25 offseason as a minor league free agent. However, the Brewers kept him in the system by signing him to a minor league contract with an invitation to the big league camp this spring. Although it’s likely that Martinez starts the season at Triple-A Nashville, a productive spring could put his name into the conversation for Rhys Hoskins’ backup this year.
The good: There’s a lot to like about Martinez’s game. As the everyday first baseman in Biloxi last year, he posted a 146 wRC+ while swiping 20 bags and leading the Southern League in doubles with 30. Additionally, although he stands at 6’6” and weighs in at 250 lbs, Martinez is known for his impressive athleticism, possessing the ability to do full splits when reaching for a ball at first base.
The bad: What has kept Martinez out of the Brewers’ top prospect rankings throughout his MiLB career has been his high strikeout rates and low contact rates. In the lower minor league levels, Martinez consistently posted a K% above 27% and a contact rate below 50%. However, Martinez seems to have this problem under control. In 2024, he posted a career-best strikeout rate of 16.8% and a career-high contact rate of 77.8% while playing in the pitcher-friendly Southern League. He also doesn’t possess the prospect pedigree of the other five players on this list, but when has that ever stopped anybody?
Conclusion
These six prospects each possess different strengths and are at different stages of their development. Prospects like Martinez, Adams, and Black raise their floor by possessing more than one tool, whereas Burke and Boeve are more one-dimensional players. That being said, Burke is the most complete hitter of this bunch and probably has the highest ceiling with his plus-plus power. Bitonti and Adams possess exciting upside, but at just 19 and 20 years old, respectively, it’s difficult to be certain.
My prediction: Blake Burke has the best chance of becoming the long-term solution at first base for the Brewers. However, keep an eye on Luke Adams this season, as another leap forward could put him in the conversation for the 2026 Opening Day roster. Additionally, pay close attention to the backup first baseman battle this spring, as it could reveal the organization’s thoughts about Martinez and Black’s futures.