The Brewers have a 99% chance to clinch the division. What should be the focus for the rest of the season?
Following the Brewers 7-3 homestand and 10-3 recent record, their situation for the postseason is very encouraging. They have built up an 11-game lead in the NL Central and are a near lock to win the NL Central at this point. FanGraphs have them at a 98.6% chance to win the Central and 99% chance to make the postseason. Baseball-Reference is even higher at a 99.5% chance for the division and 99.7% for the playoffs. With the division nearly locked up, it may be time for the Brewers to set their sights a little higher.
While the division isn’t guaranteed at this point, it would take not only a collapse by the Brewers, but also a historic run from one of the teams below them. If the Brewers went .500 the rest of the season (19-19), the Cardinals would need to go 30-8 just to tie the Brewers. That’s also assuming they win every remaining game against the Brewers. If the Brewers just win one of them, they hold the season tiebreaker, and the Cardinals would need to go 31-7 to win the division. It’s a similar situation for the Reds and Cubs. They would need to go 30-7 to tie and 31-6 to overtake the Brewers. The Brewers already have six wins this season over the Cardinals and Reds, and one more Brewer win against each guarantees the tiebreaker. The Brewers already have the tiebreaker guaranteed over the Cubs.
What if the Cardinals, Reds, or Cubs went .500 the rest of the way? In that scenario, basically reverse the records that they would need. The Brewers would have to go 8-30 at a minimum for the Cardinals or Reds to get back into it. Again, that’s also assuming they win every remaining game over the Brewers. If they don’t, the Brewers would have to go 7-31 in this scenario.
A more likely one at this point would be some combination of the two happening. Baseball-Reference has a stat that looks at this. They simulate 1000 seasons and record the results. In their simulations, they have the Brewers at 88-74 as their worst record. This basically means that in 95% of their simulations (i.e. eliminating the outliers), the Brewers have this record at worst. If we also look at the best records their simulations predict, the best record that they have the other teams in the division at is 85-77 (both the Cubs and Reds). The Cardinals are in worse shape, with 83-79 the best record projected for them. Again, that means in 95% of simulations, this is the best record these teams will get.
A record of 88-74 would have the Brewers going 16-22 the rest of the season, and the Reds or Cubs going 24-13. That’s still not enough for a team to overtake them — four games would separate the two squads. If we shift each record two more games, that would put the Brewers at 14-24 and the Reds or Cubs at 26-11. That’s a more realistic look at records the teams would need to post for the Brewers to fall out of first place.
There is a more interesting race that is developing now, though. That race is for the best record, both in the National League and in all of baseball. After Monday’s games, the gap between the top six teams in baseball is one game, with a few other teams within four games of the best record.
- Dodgers: 74-52
- Phillies: 73-51
- Yankees: 73-52
- Orioles: 73-53
- Brewers: 72-52
- Guardians: 72-52
- Padres: 71-55
- Twins: 70-55
- Royals: 70-55
- Diamondbacks: 70-56
It’s shaping up to be a fight to the finish. FanGraphs notes that this could be the first time since 2014 that no team reaches the 100-win mark, and the first time since 2007 that no team reaches 97 wins (which is just below a .600 winning percentage).
As of the end of Monday’s games, the Brewers’ odds to earn a bye sits at 27.5% (per FanGraphs). However, that is likely very volatile with how close the standings are right now. It could easily jump or fall with each win and loss. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Brewers remaining schedule:
- 3 @ Cardinals
- 3 @ Athletics
- 3 vs. Giants
- 4 @ Reds
- 3 vs. Cardinals
- 3 vs. Rockies
- 3 @ Giants
- 3 @ Diamondbacks
- 3 vs. Phillies
- 4 vs. Diamondbacks
- 3 @ Pirates
- 3 vs. Mets
The games in bold are the games against teams at or above .500. The end of season schedule is going to be a bit rough, with 16 of their final 19 games against teams at or above .500, and all are currently in the Wild Card hunt at a minimum. However, the Brewers also get 10 of their last 13 games at home, and overall have 19 games against sub-.500 teams. That will play in their favor.
The Brewers also have an easier remaining August schedule. While they will only play one team over .500 until mid-September, the Dodgers and Phillies have tougher ends to August. The Dodgers and Phillies both don’t play another team below .500 until September 3 (Angels & Blue Jays, respectively). In addition, the Phillies have only 12 games remaining against sub-.500 teams (2 vs. Blue Jays, 4 vs. Marlins, 3 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. Nationals). The Dodgers are slightly better, with 14 games against sub-.500 teams (2 vs. Angels, 3 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. Marlins, 6 vs. Rockies). However, they also have a one-game advantage over the Brewers right now, so their first-round bye chances sit at 76.1% for the Phillies and 72.3% for the Dodgers. The Padres are the only other team over 10%, with a 14.3% chance to clinch a bye despite being three games back in the NL West.
Looking at the potential best record in baseball, the Brewers strength of schedule sits near the middle, with remaining opponents at a winning percentage of .498 (per FanGraphs). The Yankees have the easiest remaining schedule (.493) and the Guardians (.511) and Royals (.510) the toughest. As for the other division leaders in the NL, the Phillies are close to the Brewers (.500) and the Dodgers have an overall easier schedule (.489).
It’s been a major shift for expectations this season between where they began and where they are now. The Brewers started the season with a projected losing record in a division that was up for grabs. They now have complete control of the division and could even compete for the best record in baseball. It’s time to change the focus for the rest of the season. A first-round bye means avoiding a potential wild card series that could spoil the postseason, and a higher finish means more postseason games at home. With six weeks to go, this season has the potential to be one of the best Brewers seasons we’ve seen in a long time.