Three Brewers questions for the second half

Key questions to watch as the Brewers build toward playoffs

As baseball takes a brief break for the All-Star Game, it provides the perfect opportunity to think about the rest of the season.

The Brewers enter the break with a handy 4.5-game lead in the National League Central. That’s not an insurmountable lead, but it provides a valuable starting point as the team looks to close out the second half.

There are always questions and opportunities for a team while there is still so much baseball left. What will be important to monitor as they build their way toward another possible division title?

What will the pitching look like?

The Brewers certainly look different than last year. With uncertainty surrounding the rotation and a top-10 offense, it’s a bit of a flip-flop in the team dynamic. The Brewers already traded for Aaron Civale. Will there be more trades in store to bolster the rotation?

Much of the improvement could come from internal sources. Milwaukee has already received more from pitchers like Colin Rea and Tobias Myers than was expected at the beginning of the year. One of the biggest concerns, then, is that ace Freddy Peralta has dealt with inconsistencies through much of the season.

Peralta’s 3.65 FIP is a marked improvement from his actual 4.11 ERA, so will he be able to pitch to a mid-3.00s ERA going forward? It might be a requirement for him to reach that ace-like potential once the postseason starts. The ups and downs are part of any season, so it’s important to focus on the positives.

First, Peralta hasn’t had many blow-up starts. In his last six starts, he has two games in which he allowed 10 hits each. In those outings, he allowed six and four runs. But in the four games in between, he had just a 2.45 ERA in 22 innings. The dominant spells are as good as expected, so there’s absolutely the possibility that Peralta locks in more frequently and has longer lasting stretches of impressive pitching.

Beyond Peralta, there are still pitchers like DL Hall who could impact the rotation. He wasn’t exceptional in his four games before injury, but he was expected to be an important part of the pitching staff. Would his return benefit the Brewers in a substantial way?

There’s always the chance of additional trades. But with Hall possibly returning from injury in August and unexpected quality from players like Myers, would the team feel pressed to make another deal?

Will Rhys Hoskins find his form?

One of the reasons this roster is so compelling is the injection of youth over the past year. Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, and so on. But while that certainly sets the stage for years of entertaining baseball, there is the risk of inconsistency with players still adjusting to the quality of play at the major league level.

Veterans capable of performing every day can help balance out that equilibrium. Will Rhys Hoskins be able to fill that role in the second half? His first half was a struggle at times, but he still put together a credible, and valuable, performance. His .215/.308/.414 (103 wRC+) slash line is solid, but there’s much more in Hoskins’ locker.

Over the last three seasons combined, Hoskins hit .246 with a 126 wRC+. If he can tap into that batting average, along with his impactful power, he would be much more than the nearly-league average hitter he has been this season. The ability is absolutely there, with his 12.8%-barrel rate still among the best in the league, even if not matching some of the elite numbers from earlier in his career.

Is Jackson Chourio taking the next step?

Jackson Chourio hasn’t hit a home run since June 28.

It might not matter that much.

Despite Chourio’s profile not providing much home run pop right now, he’s making significant improvements as he has gradually moved up the batting order, even making some starts in the leadoff spot. In his past 54 plate appearances, Chourio doesn’t have a home run, but his .250/.333/.354 (98 wRC+) slash line needs some more context to show how he is growing as a player.

Just in that time, Chourio has lowered his strikeout rate from 24.4% to 18.5%. He’s drastically cut his chase rate while making more contact in the zone — a promising combination. With this change in approach, he’s whiffing much less, and getting the ball in play.

He isn’t tapping into high-end power with just a 2.6%-barrel rate since June 29, but he’s making more consistent contact. His hard-hit rate is up to 47.4% in that time frame, compared to 41.5% beforehand. Chourio’s adjustments in his approach have helped him be a much more consistent contributor and hint towards more growth, even if the home run power output isn’t there yet.