The Next Brewers Hall of Famers (and a Hall-of-Fame Rabbit Hole)

MLB: Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates — Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

I have thoughts.

On Sunday, former Brewer All-Star Dave Parker was one of two players (along with Dick Allen) inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame, via the Era Committee’s Classic Baseball Era (formerly known as the Veterans Committee) ballot. I’m a Hall junkie, so I had a million thoughts, some of which I will share. But the thought that will guide me: who will the next Hall of Famer who played for the Brewers be? Or, more appropriately, who will the next-next Brewer Hall of Famer be?

CC

That question has to be amended because it looks like CC Sabathia is going to be a pretty comfortable first-ballot Hall of Famer. I thought there was a chance that he would get in on the first ballot, but the early returns (thanks to the Hall of Fame tracker guys on social media, led by Ryan Thibodaux) are even more encouraging than I would have thought. Even small-Hall voters are including Sabathia, and he’s on 17/18 ballots as I write this — I think he’s going to get pretty overwhelmingly inducted.

You could poke holes in Sabathia’s argument if you really wanted to, but he has a combination of things that make him a widely appealing candidate. He was an old-school workhorse who threw over 3,500 innings. He won over 250 games (a benchmark that we’re going to see very few people, if any, reach in the foreseeable future). He struck out 3,000 batters. He won a Cy Young and the Yankees won the World Series the year they signed him as their ace. Those things appeal to the more traditional Hall voters, and he ticks a lot of boxes. Sabathia also had a peak that appeals to a newer kind of Hall voter and had advanced numbers that confirmed much of what we thought about him.

The question of who the next former Brewer to make the Hall is not a hard one. It’s Sabathia. Who comes next, though, that’s a whole different question.

Way more about this than you’d ever want to know

As it is currently constructed, the Era Committee alternates years voting for players from either the “Classic Era” (biggest contributions pre-1980) and the “Modern Era” (everything else—the Hall splits the Modern Era vote between two years, one for players and one for non-players).

Joe Posnanski wrote an article the other day (behind a paywall) about how Parker got in over Dwight Evans merely because of timing; Parker and Evans are virtually the same age but Parker’s best seasons were in the late ‘70s while Evans’ were in the early ‘80s, so Parker gets on the Classic Era ballot and Evans is left to toil on the more-loaded Modern Era ballot.

I’m weird, so I made two lists, and I’m going to break each of those further into two more. (I love lists.) I wanted to know: how many players do I view as Hall-of-Fame worthy who fit into each of these categories?

Two caveats: I wanted to use only eligible players (so no Joe Jackson or Pete Rose, and no one like Albert Pujols who is not yet on the ballot), and for the purposes of the exercise, I wanted to leave off players who have been credibly accused of steroid use. You also might see that I put more stock in what a player does at his best than what he does over the course of his career. That’s where my subjective Hall opinions come in. You will disagree with some of these.

As we go through, see if you can identify the former Brewers! Besides Sabathia, there are four others. You can probably get three, but one is obscure. Here’s what I’ve got:

Classic Era candidates

I view the following as players I would definitely put in the Hall of Fame, loosely ranked in the order of how deserving I think they are (note I did not include people like Vic Harris, snubbed on Sunday, who was a good player but most notable as a manager):

John Beckwith, IF
Heavy Johnson, OF
Bobby Grich, 2B
Reggie Smith, RF
Bill Dahlen, SS
Jack “Pebbly Jack” Glasscock, SS
Ken Boyer, 3B
Sherry Magee, LF
Thurman Munson, C
Jim McCormick, SP
George Scales, 2B
Ross Barnes, 2B
John Donaldson, P

Some of these guys are a little unknown, so very quickly:

Beckwith, Johnson, and Scales (and Donaldson, to an extent) played in the Negro Leagues. I think the numbers we have now gathered suggest they should have been given more consideration on previous ballots that covered Black baseball.
Grich was an all-around stud who did things that didn’t hop off the page: he was an all-time good defensive second baseman who hit with pop in a bad offensive era and walked a ton. But he hit only .266 for his career so he wasn’t taken seriously.
Smith, likewise, played in a terrible offensive era. He played a good outfield and was an offensive star, but since his best seasons came in the late 1960s and early 1970s, he barely cleared 2,000 hits and 300 homers.
Glasscock, McCormick, and Barnes are, in my opinion, the three most deserving pre-1900 players. Glasscock (“Pebbly Jack”) was known as the best defensive shortstop of his day and at his best was one of the league’s best hitters. McCormick’s numbers compare favorably to Old Hoss Radbourn’s. Barnes was the best player of the 1870s; I know it was baseball’s first decade, but he led the league in WAR in five of six years from 1871-76.
Dahlen played for 20 years and was an above-average hitter and good defensive player. His numbers compare favorably to contemporary Hall of Fame shortstop Bobby Wallace.
Magee was one of the best offensive players of the Dead Ball Era in the National League. But he played from 1904-1919, and offense took off in 1920, so he has deflated counting numbers.
Munson and Boyer (who was just snubbed on Sunday’s ballot) both won MVPs, they both played well on both sides of the ball, they both won World Series, and I wonder why neither of them has received more support. Munson’s counting stats are a bit low because his career ended prematurely when he died in a plane crash in 1979 when he was the captain of back-to-back reigning World Series Yankee teams. Still, they are pretty similar to Buster Posey’s career numbers.
Donaldson’s career is sort of enigmatic and cannot really be judged by any standards we have, but he was a legendary and influential figure who should probably be in the Hall even though the vast majority of his career was done against amateur competition.

The following are players I’d want to have a very serious discussion about (and I could definitely argue in favor of them if I was motivated) from the Classic Era:

Cannonball Dick Redding, SP
Sal Bando, 3B
Graig Nettles, 3B
Frank “Noodles” Hahn, SP
Dobie Moore, SS
Grant “Home Run” Johnson, SS
Jim Wynn, CF
Willie Davis, CF
Bobby Bonds, RF
Luis Tiant, SP
Rick Reuschel, SP
Wes Ferrell, SP/PH
Charlie Bennett, C
Wally Schang, C
Charlie Keller, LF
Bob Johnson, LF
Charlie Smith, OF/2B

Quick notes and I’m sure you will debate me on some of these:

Redding, Moore, Johnson, and Smith all played in segregated leagues. Redding was a workhorse who played forever and was pretty darn good the whole time. Moore was one of the best players of the early years of the first Negro National League, but his career ended prematurely when he was shot by a woman in mysterious circumstances. He survived but didn’t play professionally again. Johnson was one of the best Black players of the late 1800s-early 1900s, but there is virtually no reliable recordkeeping from back then so we don’t have any real numbers to look at. Smith was the best player in the American Negro League in 1929 but died of yellow fever at age 30 in 1931. Satchel Paige called him one of the two most dangerous hitters he ever faced.
Bando and Nettles (and a guy from the next group, Buddy Bell) were excellent two-way third basemen but for various reasons haven’t gotten their due; I think it’s mostly because they were playing at the same time as George Brett and Mike Schmidt (and later Wade Boggs), three of the four best third basemen ever.
Noodles Hahn was like an early-1900s Johan Santana. He had six incredible years to start his career but was essentially done with baseball after his age-25 season. (He’s technically ineligible because he only played eight years, but I’m still including him.)
Wynn and Bonds did lots of things well and have deflated offensive numbers because of their era. Bonds also had a bad reputation, so I don’t think anyone ever took him seriously.
Willie Davis was a defensive ace who was a slightly above-average offensive player; that got him over 60 career WAR.
Tiant and Reuschel both had long, effective careers and have big career WAR totals. Tiant was the best pitcher in the AL in 1968 but was never going to get serious awards consideration because Denny McLain won 30 games. Reuschel toiled on a terrible defensive team in a hitters’ ballpark for many years, so his case requires looking beyond the surface-level numbers, something many voters are incapable of.
Wes Ferrell, whose brother Rick, a vastly inferior player, is in the Hall already, was one of the league’s best pitchers for an eight-year run, but he was also one of the most dangerous hitting pitchers of all time and added about 12 WAR in his career with his bat.
Charlie Bennett was, I’d say, the first great true catcher. He played from 1878-93, and unlike the other great “catchers” of his day (like Buck Ewing), Bennett actually played the vast majority of his games behind the dish. He was a very good hitter and an excellent defensive player during a time when catchers took a serious beating, and was credited with inventing the chest protector. He was nearly killed in a train accident that ended his career in early 1894.
You could argue that Wally Schang was the best catcher of the first 20-ish years of the 20^th century, though that distinction probably goes to Hall of Famer Roger Bresnahan. Schang played 19 years and hit well in almost all of them.
King Kong Keller played alongside Joe DiMaggio in the Yankee outfield of the late-1930s and 1940s; he was one of the league’s most effective players and had a 158 OPS+ through his first eight seasons from 1939-47 (he missed all of 1944 and most of 1945 on military duty). But injuries ruined his career; he played just 294 games after turning 30.
Bob Johnson played around the same time and was one of the most consistent hitters of his era: he didn’t debut until he was 27, but he played 13 years in the league and never had an OPS+ below 125. He led the AL in OPS as a 38-year-old in 1944 (aided, certainly, by the fact that many of the best players of the time were in the war).

Modern Era candidates

You’re going to love some of these. First, players I’d definitely put in:

Ichiro Suzuki, RF
Curt Schilling, SP
Lou Whitaker, 2B
Chase Utley, 2B
Kenny Lofton, CF
Carlos Beltrán, CF
Dwight Evans, RF
Johan Santana, SP
Keith Hernandez, 1B
Bret Saberhagen, SP
David Cone, SP
Billy Wagner, RP
Jim Edmonds, CF
Andruw Jones, CF
CC Sabathia, SP

Notes:

Ichiro could be a unanimous choice this year. He will cruise in as one of the highest vote-getters ever.
Schilling is an asshole and maybe doesn’t deserve it, but I’ve concluded he’s the best non-steroid eligible player not in the Hall.
Between Grich, Whitaker, and Utley (and Willie Randolph, who leads the next group), modern second basemen are really getting underrepresented. If you believe the defensive metrics, Utley has the best five-year run as a second baseman since Joe Morgan.
Lofton, a personal favorite, was a speed and defense player in a power-hitting time. He also played for nine different teams in his last six seasons, which I think gave the false impression that no one wanted him. (Everyone did!)
Beltrán, like Schilling, has not been voted in because of non-playing reasons (see: the 2017 Houston Astros). We’ll see if that changes in the coming years. On paper, his case is rock solid.
I can’t tell you why Evans, a Gold Glove outfielder who could hit, is not in. Probably because his best season was in the strike-shortened 1981, or because he was constantly overshadowed by more-famous teammates (he spent large portions of his career with Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice, Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, and flash-in-the-pan, lesser players like Fred Lynn and Mike Greenwell).
Santana, Cone, and Saberhagen all had careers whose arcs were affected due to injuries, but all three were, at their best, among the very best pitchers in the game, if not the best. All three had longer careers than you remember and are deserving.
Hernandez won a batting title, has a 128 career OPS+, has an argument as the best defensive modern first baseman, won an MVP, led a famous World Series winner, and was on Seinfeld. Not sure how he’s not in already.
Wagner, who will very likely be elected this year, is the best relief pitcher of all time who isn’t Mariano Rivera.
Edmonds and Jones were both great defensive center fielders with serious pop. Jones has an argument as the best defensive center fielder ever. Edmonds wasn’t that, but he was a much better offensive player.
We covered Sabathia.

And the players I could make an argument for:

Willie Randolph, 2B
Buddy Bell, 3B
Will Clark, 1B
John Olerud, 1B
Bobby Abreu, RF
Roy Oswalt, SP
Kevin Appier, SP
Dave Stieb, SP
Jonathan Papelbon, RP
Joe Nathan, RP

I can feel you rolling your eyes at some of these, but listen, I’ve put way too much time and effort and number-crunching into this and I think you can make serious arguments for them all. Notes:

Randolph, like Willie Davis, was a slightly above-average offensive player and an all-timer defensively. Overshadowed in that regard because Frank White, one of the two best defensive second basemen of all time, was a contemporary in the same league.
Bell was mentioned above; great on defense and a quality hitter.
Clark and Olerud both could easily have won MVP awards in the late-1980s/early-1990s and if they had, I think we’d have given them a more serious discussion.
Abreu did everything well, he just did it for a bad Phillies team that no one cared about.
Oswalt and Appier surprised me, too, but both were off-the-radar superstars. Oswalt was never bad until the last, unhealthy appearances of his career. Appier had an eight-year run in the ’90s as one of the top pitchers in the league, but it was in Kansas City so no one noticed.
Stieb led the AL in bWAR in three straight seasons and could have won two or three Cy Youngs.
I’ll probably get some grief for Papelbon and Nathan, but both saved over 350 games, and while “number of saves” is not a criterion I consider important for Hall of Fame induction, their combination of longevity and effectiveness have convinced me that both are top-six relievers of all time (after Rivera, Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, and Hoyt Wilhelm).

What does it mean?

I have listed 30 players from the before-1980 group and 24 from the post-1980 group. But… that post-1980 group doesn’t include any accused steroid users (there are, I’d say, 11 steroid guys with credible cases: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Kevin Brown, Robinson Canó, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, and Andy Pettitte) and it’s only going to grow as players fall off the ballot.*

*Note that I discussed seven players on the current ballot; Ichiro, Sabathia, and Wagner are likely to be inducted this year. Beltrán and Jones have a pretty good shot at eventually getting in via the BBWAA. Utley has a chance, but he’ll need to see some serious improvement. Abreu, I am confident, will not be inducted by the BBWAA.

We have a backlog, and it’s not going to get much better. The two Era Committees that vote on players can mathematically induct no more than four players once every three years, but it’s a near statistical impossibility to get to four players and unlikely that they’d get even three. Even if they’re generous, we’re looking at two players every three years from each of the two committees. And it’s not going to be much help if players like Parker, who wouldn’t have made my list here except maybe as a “to be considered” player, are the people they choose.

There’s not much to be done about it. Most of the players I’ve listed will never be inducted into the Hall of Fame, for one reason or another. Many of them I don’t think have even a small chance. I shouldn’t care nearly this much. But the conversation is still fun to have.

Bringing it back: Who is/are the next Brewer(s)?

Did you catch the four former Brewers besides Sabathia? The most obvious is Bando, whose last five seasons came in Milwaukee. Current fans will probably remember Edmonds’ short tenure as a Brewer; he spent the first half of his final (age-40) season in 2010 in Milwaukee, played well for 73 games, and got traded to Cincinnati before the deadline. He played only 13 more games and retired. The other notable one is Willie Randolph, who had a shockingly effective season in Milwaukee as a 36-year-old in 1991; it was probably the best offensive season of his long career.

But there’s one more! It’s quite obscure: the “Toy Cannon,” Jimmy Wynn. I can’t even really find any pictures of Wynn on the Brewers. In his final season in 1977, Wynn played badly for 30 games with the Yankees, got cut in mid-July, hooked on with the Brewers, played 36 games, hit .197 with no home runs, and never played in the majors again.

Do any of these guys have a real shot to get in after Sabathia?

I do not see the committees giving much credence to Randolph or Wynn. Bando doesn’t seem to have any real support, either, though I’d expect him on a committee ballot before the other two. Edmonds, who knows? He has a pretty strong case, and I think people are beginning to realize it as they compare him with Andruw Jones, a contemporary who has real support. I think I’d prefer Edmonds in that matchup. But he never finished higher than fourth in MVP voting, made only four All-Star teams, and got just 2.5% of the vote in his one year on the ballot. I think that last one counts to the people who construct the committee ballots; they seem more inclined to include players who got more than a cursory look from the BBWAA.

If not them, who else? The current ballot includes two former Brewers beyond Sabathia, Francisco Rodríguez and Curtis Granderson. Granderson will not make a second ballot, and Rodríguez—on his third—could fall off this year. Ryan Braun is on the ballot next year, but his PED connections will eliminate any serious consideration. After that?

Well, the answer, it turns out, is pretty obvious. It’s Zack Greinke, who will be on the ballot in 2029. To me, Greinke is a clear Hall of Famer: I’d have given him two Cy Youngs, he has almost 80 career WAR, and he finished just under 3,000 strikeouts. I think he’ll probably get in easily, though some might hold “not being Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer” against him.

There you have it. Over 3,000 words about the Hall of Fame. If you made it all the way to the bottom, I salute you. Otherwise, I’ll see you in the comments, where you’ll be yelling at me for seriously considering Roy Oswalt as a Hall of Fame candidate.