For Milwaukee, it’s probably the smart decision
Devin Williams’ first five-plus years in the major leagues have been nothing less than fantastic. He won Rookie of the Year in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, when he had an ERA+ of 1,375. (I’m aware of small sample sizes and stuff, but that number is too fun to pass up). He had a great season as Josh Hader’s set-up man in 2021 and got even better when he moved into the closer role midway through the 2022 season. Williams’ ERA has increased every year from 2021 on. His devastating airbender is, when it’s on, arguably the best pitch in baseball.
But the Brewers should probably trade him.
To be clear, this has nothing to do with Williams’ unfortunate meltdown two weeks ago that handed the Brewers one of the toughest losses in franchise history, nor with the larger overarching fact that Williams’ career postseason ERA is 23.14. He has pitched only 2 1/3 innings in the postseason, and to let that kind of sample override the 235 spectacular innings we’ve seen in the regular season would be, in a word, stupid.
But a trade of Williams is probably the best move for the long-term future of the Milwaukee Brewers. Does it make the team worse in 2025? Yes, it’s likely that the ceiling of next year’s Brewers would be higher with Williams on the team. But there are a few reasons why trading Williams is, in all likelihood, the best move for the team.
Williams will make a lot as a free agent after next season, and relievers are risky investments.
Here are the five largest contracts ever given to relief pitchers (with the first year of the contract listed):
- Edwin Díaz, five years, $102 million (2023)
- Josh Hader, five years, $95 million (2024)
- Aroldis Chapman, five years, $86 million (2017)
- Kenley Jansen, five years, $80 million (2017)
- Mark Melancon, four years, $62 million (2017)
How have those deals gone?
- Díaz missed 2023 with a torn ACL (admittedly a freak injury) and pitched just better than league average over 54 appearances in 2024, and he has been up-and-down in the postseason.
- In the first year of his five-year deal, Hader saved 34 games but had an ERA of 3.80, which equated to just a 104 ERA+.
- Chapman was solid over the length of his contract with the Yankees and among the best closers in baseball in 2018 and 2019. He signed a contract extension that took him through 2022, but he fell off badly that year.
- Jansen was excellent in the first and last years of his big contract, but the three years in the middle ranged from “fine, I guess” to “not bad.”
- The Melancon contract did not go well. He was bad in 2017 and just okay in 2018 and 2019; during the ’19 season, San Francisco traded him to Atlanta, where he did have a good year in a small sample during the shortened ’20 season.
The hit rate on these contracts is, maybe, 50%? The jury is still out on the Díaz and Hader deals, but the early returns have been dubious, the Melancon contract was a bad decision, and while the Yankees and Dodgers got mostly good results from those contracts, Chapman and Jansen are (sort of sneakily) two of the best relievers of all time, and the Yankees and Dodgers can afford such luxuries.
The point here is this: Devin Williams, barring something going seriously wrong next season, is going to get a contract that rivals or surpasses these, and the chances that he lives up to that contract seem no better than about 50%.
The Brewers have a backup plan, and they know it works.
Williams didn’t make his 2024 debut until July 28. From the beginning of the season until that time, Trevor Megill made 35 appearances, pitched to a 2.41 ERA and 2.75 FIP, held opponents to a .571 OPS, and saved 20 games in 22 chances. Megill then missed some time in the beginning of August and he gave up three runs in his first game back on August 21, but from August 23 until the end of the season he had a 1.50 ERA and 2.50 FIP in 12 innings and held opponents to a .377 OPS.
Megill has closer-y stuff; his fastball sits in the high 90s and he gets lots of whiffs and strikeouts. Even in previous seasons before he had a regular role, the underlying numbers were encouraging. Megill has the stuff to be a closer and he proved, over more than half a season, that he can do the job. He’s also entering just his first arbitration year in 2025, so the Brewers have three more years of team control.
There are other options, too, that could be in the pipeline. Craig Yoho had an unbelievably dominant minor league season in 2024 (0.94 ERA, 15.8 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings) and he’s on the doorstep of the major leagues; he should be in competition for a bullpen spot in spring training. Yoho wouldn’t be a traditional closer; he doesn’t boast a big fastball, but instead baffles hitters with outstanding off-speed stuff, including one of the most intriguing changeups in the minor leagues. But if that arsenal translates, he could absolutely be the next great Brewers closer.
There’s also Jacob Misiorowski, who does have more traditional closer stuff. The Brewers will likely be interested to see whether they can get him to the big leagues as a starter, but he’s definitely got the type of repertoire that could translate into a high-leverage relief role.
Williams should command a high price on the trade market.
This is the final piece of the puzzle. Williams should be in demand; despite the rough end to the postseason (in which he was possibly tipping his pitches), He had an outstanding 2024 season and would certainly be the best available reliever in baseball. Teams always need relief pitching, and there are a number of contending teams that would potentially be willing to part with good prospects to get Williams.
The return for high-leverage relievers feels like it can be all over the place, but a small sampling from 2024 shows that Miami received their new No. 4 prospect (according to MLB Pipeline) in the A.J. Puk trade and their No. 5 prospect (plus numbers 11 and 23) in the trade of Tanner Scott. The Los Angeles Angels received their new No. 3 prospect (George Klassen) and No. 8 (Sam Aldegheri) for Carlos Estévez, and three of Oakland’s top 30 (Nos. 6, 16, and 28) came over in the Lucas Erceg trade.
With apologies to Estévez, none of those players are in the same stratosphere as Williams. Even with just a year of team control, we’re talking about serious prospect capital here, players that could be on a timeline more in line with Jackson Chourio’s.
If the Brewers get offers for Williams that offer them the type of return that would replenish the top end of their farm system (after graduating so many players in the past two years), they should do it.
Conclusions
The Brewers can afford to keep Devin Williams in 2025; his $10.5 million team option isn’t a major financial hurdle. But investing a lot of money in Williams is not a smart long-term use of resources for a team like the Brewers. They have a proven substitute in Trevor Megill and more arms ready to move into other roles in the bullpen. They should be able to get a good return for him on the trade market.
Being a fan of a lower-payroll team like the Milwaukee Brewers can be frustrating, but this is a case where I believe the smart move is to move on, regardless of whether the Brewers could have the money to offer Williams a big free-agent contract after next season. It’s been a great run for Williams in Milwaukee, but there’s a good chance he’s thrown his last pitch in a Brewers uniform.