Milwaukee scuffled to an 11-13 record in July but remain five games ahead of the rest of the NL Central
The Brewers, coming off a rough 11-13 month of July, remain five games ahead of the pack in the NL Central. But is it time to worry?
Milwaukee scuffled as they went 2-5-1 across eight series in the month, including an 0-4 series record at home as they dropped two of three to the Pirates, Nationals, Marlins, and Braves (4-8 record overall).
Much of the team’s struggles can be attributed to an inconsistent offense and bullpen, two of the team’s strongest areas early in the season. Even as Milwaukee has dealt with injuries all season, players have stepped up to fill in the gaps. Jackson Chourio has had a solid stretch dating back to early June, but others — such as Joey Ortiz — have struggled since that time.
The team still hit .249/.326/.404 with 25 homers and 104 runs in 24 July games, but that’s a fall from their March/April and May numbers, when they hit .258/.339/.418 and .260/.331/.423, respectively. Rhys Hoskins led the team with seven homers in 22 games in July but collected just 14 hits total, slashing .192/.262/.507. Willy Adames and the aforementioned Chourio both had solid numbers, batting over .300 with an OPS near .900.
Beyond that, team struggled. Ortiz hit just .158/.222/.211 with nine hits in 15 games after returning from injury in early July, and Brice Turang’s offense has taken a step back after a strong start to the season, hitting .169/.221/.191 as he appeared in all 24 games. Even William Contreras hit just .231/.362/.308 after the All-Star break, a far cry from his .286/.352/.440 pre-break line. And the injury to Christian Yelich doesn’t help things, as he was playing near an MVP level with a .315/.406/.504 line with 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 44 runs, and 21 steals in 73 games. His injury leaves a major question mark for the time being, as it’s unclear if he’ll make a return before expected offseason back surgery.
Now to the pitching staff.
Outside of Colin Rea and Tobias Myers (who would’ve expected those to be the top two names heading into the season?), the Brewers’ starters have been inconsistent to say the least. Freddy Peralta is either one of the best pitchers in the league or a guy who hangs meatballs over the plate. In five June starts, he went 0-2 with a 4.10 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 26 1⁄3 innings. Aaron Civale’s results haven’t been promising since joining the rotation, though he’s shown a small flash in the pan with a one-run outing against the Pirates. Joe Ross struggled in his return from injury, allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Braves.
Just as it looked like the pitching staff was healing up — welcome back Devin Williams! — the Brewers lost both Trevor Megill and Bryan Hudson to injury. Even those two didn’t look like the guys we’d become used to early in the season, as Hudson allowed five runs over 6 2⁄3 innings in July and Megill allowed four runs over 7 1⁄3 innings in July. Bryse Wilson (4.24 ERA over 17 innings), Joel Payamps (4.15 ERA over 8 2⁄3 innings), and Elvis Peguero (5.79 ERA over 9 1⁄3 innings) have also not been promising.
Just about the only guy who looked consistently good out of the ‘pen was Rob Zastryzny, who pitched to a 1.17 ERA over 7 2⁄3 innings, including three games as an opener.
Should we still have faith in this team? I’d say yes.
We know these guys have it in them, and the front office went out to add a few more arms in Nick Mears and Frankie Montas at the trade deadline, though it remains to be seen if either of them is a sustainable fix to the pitching staff’s July struggles.
Milwaukee should also have a few more key players back in August, including Megill and Hudson, who both had “favorable” MRI results on their back and oblique, respectively. Zastryzny is also dealing with a “mild” elbow injury, and J.B. Bukauskas and DL Hall are also expected to return soon-ish. Yelich, if he leans into the non-surgery route (which all indications are this is the case), could be back in August as well, though it seems like his bomb is truly a ticking time bomb.
Even with the pair of series losses against Miami and Atlanta in the last week, there are signs of hope on offense. The team poured it on for six runs on Sunday and eight runs on Monday in their two wins, led by Hoskins, Chourio, and Garrett Mitchell. On the pitching side, Rea and Myers were solid in both June and July, Hoby Milner didn’t allow a run in four appearances this week, and Williams is back to anchor the back of the bullpen.
I’m not worried just yet.