Milwaukee looks to get back on track in the nation’s capital
As the dust settles on the MLB trade deadline, the Milwaukee Brewers will face a Washington Nationals team that looks a bit different from the one that took two out of three against them in Milwaukee just before the All-Star break. Since that series (July 12-14), the Nationals have traded Jesse Winker, Lane Thomas, Dylan Floro, and Hunter Harvey.
The Brewers will be pleased not to see Winker, who homered and doubled in the first of Washington’s two wins in that July series, and Thomas, who had hits in all three games. They can also be at least a little bit pleased than Juan Yepez is no longer one of the league’s hottest hitters: called up at the beginning of June, his batting average peaked at .390 the game after the Nationals’ three-game series with the Brewers, and has since dropped nearly 50 points (though he’s still hitting .341/.389/.541 in 95 plate appearances). CJ Abrams, the star shortstop who hit a backbreaking, game-winning two run homer in the top of the ninth off of Trevor Megill in the Nationals’ 6-5 victory on July 13, has also cooled of late, and is hitting just .167/.231/.208 in 12 games since the All-Star break.
But Milwaukee’s offense has been faltering in a bad way lately. In the last nine games, they’ve scored more than three runs only twice. They’re 26th in runs scored in the last 30 days. On the flip side, their pitching has been solid: Milwaukee is still third in reliever ERA in the last 30 days despite struggles from their two most reliable arms this year, Bryan Hudson and Trevor Megill (who are now both on the IL), and their overall ERA is sixth in the league in that span. But too often lately they’ve just failed to score any runs.
And while the Nationals do look quite a bit different after the trade deadline, Milwaukee’s changes are more subtle. Frankie Montas, who they acquired from the Cincinnati Reds on Monday, will make his debut in Friday’s game. Their other recent deadline pickup, reliever Nick Mears, looked great in his first outing but gave up back-to-back home runs in his second appearance on Wednesday.
With Abrams in a slump and Yepez cooling off, the Nationals lineup doesn’t look quite as threatening as it did two weeks ago. But they’ve still got some players performing well: Jacob Young, the speedy center fielder, has been hitting well lately, and Harold Ramírez, who signed as a free agent after being waived by the Rays in June, has been hot for the last two weeks.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, August 2 @ 5:45 p.m: Frankie Montas (5.01 ERA, 4.92 FIP) vs. Jake Irvin (3.44 ERA, 3.93 FIP)
Frankie Montas will make his Brewers debut after being acquired before the trade deadline on July 29. It’s been a bit of a struggle for Montas as he’s tried to work his way back after shoulder surgery that limited him to 1 1⁄3 innings in 2023, as evidenced by his 5.01 ERA and 4.92 FIP. Montas’s walks per nine are higher than they were pre-surgery (4.0 this season, higher than all five years from 2018-22 except for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season) and his strikeouts per nine (7.5) is far below his peak (at least 9.7 in four of five seasons between 2017 and 2021). There’s not much to be encouraged by on his Statcast page, either. But Montas has been around the block, he still has solid fastball velocity, and we’ll hope that the Brewer pitching coaches have seen something that will be an easy fix.
Irvin, on the other hand, has had a really good sophomore season in Washington. In 22 starts (128 1⁄3 innings) he holds a 3.44 ERA (115 ERA+) and 3.93 FIP, and he’s done a good job limiting baserunners (1.083 WHIP). He’s coming off two consecutive solid starts, but the Brewers roughed him up a bit on July 14, getting to him for seven runs (six earned, including two homers) and striking out just three times in four innings.
Saturday, August 3 @ 3:05 p.m: Aaron Civale (4.92 ERA, 4.89 FIP) vs. DJ Herz (4.79 ERA, 4.37 FIP)
Aaron Civale hasn’t been great in four starts with the Brewers, but his results are a bit better—in four starts with Milwaukee he holds a 4.29 ERA in 21 innings, significantly better than the 5.07 ERA he had in 17 starts in Tampa. But his FIP has flipped the opposite direction: it was 4.69 with the Rays and sits at 5.69 as a Brewer. Civale isn’t the type of pitcher to completely lock down an offense, so they’ll need their offense to show up in this one.
DJ Herz has had an up-and-down rookie season for the Nationals. In nine starts he’s just 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA, but his FIP is better (4.37) and his Statcast page has a lot of red on it. Herz strikes out a ton of batters and doesn’t walk all that many—he has 11.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 this season, but he’s also allowed nine home runs in 41 1⁄3 innings. He has good stuff and the Brewers’ offense will need to take advantage of him when they get a chance. In his last start, Herz gave up two runs in five innings while striking out eight Cardinals.
Sunday, August 4 @ 12:35 p.m: Tobias Myers (3.10 ERA, 4.32 FIP) vs. Mitchell Parker (4.31 ERA, 3.98 FIP)
Tobias Myers has been an absolutely crucial piece of the Brewers puzzle this season, as he has given entirely unexpected production and been, arguably, the team’s best starting pitcher. In his last game versus Miami, Myers was fairly effective but inefficient: he allowed just one run on three hits and a walk, but he needed 75 pitches to get through four innings and didn’t make it into the fifth.
Mitchell Parker is another Nats rookie, but not one with the pedigree or stuff of Herz. But he’s made it work reasonably well this season, as he’s got a 4.31 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 19 starts (100 1⁄3 innings). Parker also does a good job limiting walks, but he’s a pitcher batters should be able to make contact against.
Prediction
The Brewers have faltered of late and desperately need to jumpstart their flailing offense. I’m not sure I see it in this series, on the road, with two good young pitchers lined up against them against two questionable veteran trade acquisitions. That said, the Nationals are a weaker team after the deadline, and the Brewers have way more to play for, so I’ll say that Milwaukee wins two out of three, but it won’t be easy.