The Brewers will take on struggling Nationals in final series before All-Star break
With the All-Star break looming just around the corner, the Brewers will finish off the first half with a three-game set against the Washington Nationals.
The Nationals have been spunky this season with some interesting players, but their play hasn’t been consistent enough to believe in an underdog run at a wild card spot. Of course, they play in a difficult division with the Phillies and Braves, but the Nationals still will provide a decent challenge for Milwaukee.
Washington has received production from unlikely places with players like Jesse Winker and Luis Garcia Jr. running hot in recent weeks. Over the past 30 days, Winker’s 157 wRC+ and Garcia Jr.’s 126 wRC+ rank second and third on the team, respectively.
The only other player outperforming them recently is the young shortstop, CJ Abrams. His impressive season led to an All-Star selection as he looks to be a vital part of Washington’s future. This season, Abrams has a .274/.349/.491 (134 wRC+) with 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases. His all-around contributions make him the most dangerous player on the Nationals.
The recently called-up James Wood is another player-to-watch in this series. One of the consensus top prospects in baseball, Wood has put together a promising start to his major league career. In his first 10 games, he has a .250 batting average and an eye-catching .372 on-base percentage.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, July 12 @ 7:10 p.m: Freddy Peralta (3.95 ERA, 3.71 FIP) vs. Jackson Rutledge (9.00 ERA, 14.17 FIP)
Freddy Peralta has been performing well lately, but he will be looking to bounce back from a shortened outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He surrendered three runs in four innings, but the three walks was another sign that he has given away a few too many free passes this season. One area where Peralta has seen significant improvements in recent week is by allowing much less in-zone contact. In his past five starts, he has allowed just a 74.6% in-zone contact rate, compared to his 80.3% season rate.
The Nationals’ expected starter, Jackson Rutledge, has made just one appearance this year, allowing one run in one inning. Across 20 innings in 2023, Rutledge allowed a 6.75 ERA. Even in Triple-A this year, Rutledge has seriously struggled with command with a 5.02 BB/9.
Saturday, July 13 @ 3:10 p.m: Dallas Keuchel (4.61 ERA, 6.47 FIP) vs. Mitchell Parker (3.44 ERA, 3.92 FIP)
Dallas Keuchel has performed admirably through his first three Brewers starts, but his 6.47 FIP suggests it might be a mirage. His recent outing against the Dodgers was a prime example of the strange contribution he offers. He shut down a dangerous lineup through 4 1⁄3 innings, but he walked five without striking out a batter. It might not be a robust profile, but the Brewers would be grateful for another solid outing.
Mitchell Parker has been one of the young Nationals players impressing this season with a 3.44 ERA and decent control. He doesn’t excel in many areas, but he limits walks and has an interesting four-pitch mix with a four-seamer, curveball, split finger, and slider. The Brewers have performed at about a league-average level against lefties, so the platoon split shouldn’t provide an insurmountable barrier to Milwaukee.
Sunday, July 14 @ 1:10 p.m: Colin Rea (3.81 ERA, 4.67 FIP) vs. Jake Irvin (3.13 ERA, 3.63 FIP)
Colin Rea has seen some incredible results this season, but his low strikeout profile can lead to some big innings for opponents when the ball doesn’t land right. That’s been evident in some of his recent starts. In his last four games, he allowed a 93.9 average exit velocity, compared to 89.6 mph upon entering those four starts. His hard-hit percentage in that time has climbed from 40.8% on the year to 51.4%. It will be on Rea to return to the weak-contact inducing, suppressive style he showed earlier in the year.
Jake Irvin has been one of the most impressive success stories this season. He’s been going deep into games while showing drastic improvements from last season. He’s walking significantly fewer batters and giving up fewer home runs. After three starts in which he allowed two runs over 20 innings, Irvin got knocked around by the Mets in his last outing. He gave up six runs in six innings while giving up two home runs. Even in some of his more difficult starts, though, he has been able to grind through innings to help the Nationals bullpen with length.
Prediction
The Brewers seem like a comprehensively better team here. The Nationals have some fascinating players, but the overall depth and quality for Milwaukee should win out in a three-game series. Parker and Irvin have been good enough for Washington that they could steal a game, but I like the Brewers to win two out of three as they head into the All-Star break.