Back in Milwaukee for a midweek showdown
The San Francisco Giants are one of a handful of teams clinging to playoff hopes.
They come to Milwaukee for a midweek series against the Brewers, a strange contrast between two teams that many would have predicted to finish with a similar record entering the season.
The Giants, currently 66-66, sit five games out from a Wild Card spot entering play on Monday. Fittingly for such a mediocre record, the Giants rank 14th in wRC+ this season and 20th in Team ERA. They don’t boast many superstars, but they have a roster capable of challenging nearly anyone.
Rookie Tyler Fitzgerald has been the most pleasant surprise for the Giants. He’s batting .298 with 14 home runs and 16 stolen bases. He’s nearing a 20-20 season despite registering just 235 plate appearances at this point.
In the series opener, Logan Webb will be on the mound for San Francisco. The Giants’ rotation has been topsy-turvy this year, but Webb is one pitcher who has been as good as expected. He carries a 3.13 ERA into the start, and there’s reason to believe he’s been even better than that with a 2.75 FIP.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Tuesday, August 27 @ 7:10 p.m: Tobias Myers (2.87 ERA, 3.99 FIP) vs. Logan Webb (3.13 ERA, 2.75 FIP)
How many people had Tobias Myers nearing the end of August with a better ERA than Logan Webb? Myers is on another one of his wild streaks, allowing no more than two earned runs in any of his last seven starts. His slider and changeup continue to get results. Although he doesn’t have elite strikeout rates, those two pitches have allowed batting averages of .184 and .094, respectively.
Webb went through a bit of a bump this summer, posting a 4.25 ERA between June and July. He’s cast that aside and looks like himself again. In his five most recent starts, Webb has a 0.96 ERA while pitching at least seven innings in four of those games. One of those was a complete game shutout against the Oakland A’s. Webb’s walk rate is slightly up this year, but he’s allowing fewer home runs than any other season.
Wednesday, August 28 @ 7:10 p.m: Freddy Peralta (3.86 ERA, 4.18 FIP) vs. Kyle Harrison (4.00 ERA, 4.25 FIP)
Freddy Peralta’s season has taken a strange turn. His lackluster results continued on from July into early August, but he is fresh off two bounce-back starts. Oddly enough, though, his strikeouts have completely dipped in those outings. He allowed just one earned run over 11 innings against the Guardians and Cardinals. But with just five strikeouts between the two games, he now has a 7.02 K/9 over the last six starts. That’s a stark contrast to the 11.39 K/9 mark he had earlier in the year.
Kyle Harrison has yet to live up to the hype he generated as a prospect. His 4.00 ERA this year is only marginally better than the 4.15 ERA he had as a rookie in 2023. While the results haven’t improved much, there are some underlying reasons to believe Harrison is closer to taking that next step. He’s forced more groundballs this year by a significant margin, leading to a much better home run rate. Unfortunately for Harrison, many of those groundballs have resulted in hits with his BABIP rising from .236 to .301 this year.
Thursday, August 29 @ 1:10 p.m: Aaron Civale (4.84 ERA, 4.87 FIP) vs. Hayden Birdsong (4.57 ERA, 5.00 FIP)
Civale doesn’t have a dominant, ace-like profile, but he’s put together a more impressive stretch with Milwaukee than it might seem. His ERA with Milwaukee sits at 4.35. That’s nothing special, but most of his starts are respectable. Six of his eight starts as a Brewer have ended with three or fewer earned runs. Now, some of those are three earned runs without finishing the fifth inning, but Civale isn’t really losing Milwaukee many games. It will be interesting to see if he settles into a rhythm with more performances like his starts against the Reds and Guardians in which he combined for 12 1⁄3 innings with just two earned runs.
Birdsong has flashed some interesting skills this season. He had two awful starts but has otherwise looked rather impressive. His two recent outings have been shorter in length, but he went 8 2⁄3 innings with only one earned run against the Mariners and A’s. Those two teams aren’t anything special, but Birdsong should still represent a decent challenge for Milwaukee. He’s put up some impressive strikeout numbers, but with a walk rate of 5.16 per nine innings, it will be an opportunity for the Brewers to display their collective approach.
Prediction
The Brewers seem like a more well-rounded team in this matchup. In nearly any aspect that the Giants can boast, I think the Brewers outclass them. The Brewers’ trio of Myers-Peralta-Civale should find success against a lineup that has some interesting pieces but has slumped over the past month.