The Brewers return to American Family Field for the last part of the schedule before the All-Star break
After a 3-4 road trip, the Brewers have a six-game homestand to finish the schedule before the All-Star break. They lost 2 1⁄2 games in the standings to the Cardinals and hope to rebuild that before the break. To start the homestand, they’ll face the Pirates for three games at home. The Pirates are 9 1⁄2 games back in the NL Central standings, but just four games back in the Wild Card standings.
This will be the Brewers’ third series against the Pirates this season. So far, the Brewers are 4-3 against the Pirates this season. They split a series 2-2 in Pittsburgh in April, then took a series 2-1 at home in May. The last series between these two teams will be in late September in the second-to-last series of the season.
On offense, Bryan Reynolds has led the offense this season. He’s really stepped up his production in the last month. In the last 30 days, he’s posted a .333/.386/.648 batting line with eight HR, 20 RBI, and a 187 wRC+. Also, Rowdy Tellez has really come around in the last 30 days. He’s had a .342/.385/.644 batting line with six HR, 16 RBI, and a 186 wRC+ over that time. However, as a team, they’ve struggled on offense. They’re 26th in MLB with a 87 wRC+ this season.
Injuries have decimated the Pirates pitching staff. They have 10 pitchers currently on the injured list, which includes four different starting pitchers. The most recent additions were Bailey Falter and Jared Jones, which will force the Pirates to dip further into their pitching depth. They’re also missing David Bednar (5.17 ERA, 16 SV), who has been handling the closing duties for the Pirates. Aroldis Chapman (4.13 ERA, three SV) has slid into that role since then. Carmen Mlodzinski (3.42 ERA), Kyle Nicholas (4.00 ERA), and Colin Holderman (1.93 ERA) have also been paying critical roles in the bullpen in recent weeks.
Probable Pitchers
Tuesday, July 9 @ 7:10 p.m: TBD vs. Colin Rea (3.34 ERA, 4.61 FIP)
The Pirates have not announced their starter for Tuesday yet. This would have been Jared Jones’ spot in the rotation, but he was placed on the injured list with a right lat strain. They could activate Quinn Priester from the IL, He’s made two rehab starts with Indianapolis and his last start was on July 2. Priester has made a start against the Brewers this season, allowing four runs in six innings on May 14. Other options are thin, with only Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows on the 40-man roster.
Colin Rea has continued his strong season with a gem of a start his last time out. In Colorado, he pitched seven shutout innings with four strikeouts. He scattered six hits over the start. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts.
Wednesday, July 10 @ 7:10 p.m: Martín Pérez (4.72 ERA, 4.60 FIP) vs. Tobias Myers (3.52 ERA, 4.44 FIP)
Martín Pérez will face the Brewers for the second time this season. The last time the Brewers faced him, they had a great night. They scored nine runs off of him in five innings. Perez has also spent a month on the IL since their last meeting. In his last start against the Cardinals, he allowed just one unearned run in 7 1⁄3 innings.
After a strong June, Tobias Myers has had a rough couple of starts his last few times out. He allowed three runs to the Cubs and four runs to the Rockies in his last two starts. Myers has been boom or bust in many of his starts. He has seven starts where he allowed zero or one runs, but also has four starts where he allowed four or more runs.
Thursday, July 11 @ 1:10 p.m: Paul Skenes (2.12 ERA, 2.78 FIP) vs. Aaron Civale (5.18 ERA, 4.96 FIP)
The Brewers have missed Paul Skenes so far this season, but will have to face him for the first time in the final game of the series. Skenes has lived up to his hype so far, posting a 2.12 ERA and a 11.8 K/9 in his first 10 major league starts. He has not allowed more than three runs in a start this season and has at least seven strikeouts in nine of his 10 starts. That led to him earning an All-Star selection in his rookie season. In addition, the Pirates have averaged 6.93 runs in his starts, which includes four double-digit run games.
Aaron Civale made his first Brewers start on July 5 against the Dodgers. He allowed four runs in five innings in that start. He did strike out eight in the start, but also allowed three walks and three home runs. The home runs have been an issue for Civale, who has allowed at least one home run in 15 of his 18 starts. However, the strikeout rate has been good at 9.0 K/9.
Prediction
This will be a tough series with Paul Skenes set up to pitch for the Pirates. However, there are holes to exploit as well. The other two games have potentially more favorable matchups for the Brewers, and Skenes isn’t unbeatable. I’ll still predict two of three for the Brewers here.