Brewers take on Phillies for final time in the regular season in potential postseason preview
Coming off a solid road trip in which they secured series wins against both the Giants and Diamondbacks (with a chance to sweep Arizona on Sunday), the Brewers take on another heavyweight opponent in the Phillies beginning Monday in Milwaukee with a chance to clinch the NL Central at home.
Philadelphia held Milwaukee’s offense to just two runs over three games in a sweep in early June, though Milwaukee’s pitching staff also held the Phillies to just seven runs. At that time, the Phillies were the top team in the league with a 44-19 record while Milwaukee sat at 36-26. Since that time, the Brewers have been playing slightly better than the Phillies, with a 50-36 record compared to Philadelphia’s 45-40 record entering Sunday, though Philadelphia still leads the overall NL standings.
Philadelphia’s injured list includes outfielder Austin Hays (kidney infection), infielder Edmundo Sosa (back spasms), and pitcher Spencer Turnbull (right lat strain). Hays’ return is TBD as he’s currently on antibiotics for his illness. Sosa is nearing a return, potentially making it back during this series, and Turnbull is expected to return prior to the postseason. After Alec Bohm was reinstated from the IL prior to Sunday’s series finale with the Mets, that leaves the Phillies near full strength as they enter the final few weeks of the season.
On offense, the Phillies are led by the usual suspects. Kyle Schwarber is nearing a 40-homer, 100-RBI season as he currently sits with 35 homers and 95 RBIs. Bryce Harper is hitting .289/.376/.534 with 28 homers and 82 RBIs in another MVP-caliber season. Nick Castellanos has 20 homers and 80 RBIs, while Trea Turner (18 homers, 55 RBIs, 15 steals), Brandon Marsh (15 homers, 55 RBIs, 16 steals), and Alec Bohm (13 homers and 89 RBIs) round out the leaders. J.T. Realmuto is having a slightly down year by his standards, hitting .267/.321/.423 with 12 homers and 42 RBIs, while Bryson Stott leads the team with 29 steals, adding 11 homers and 54 RBIs. As a team, the Phillies are among the leaders in just about every offensive statistic, including homers (180; ninth), runs (725; fifth), and OPS (.751; fourth).
In the bullpen, the Phillies are anchored by Carlos Estévez, who was acquired at the trade deadline from the Angels. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and José Alvarado are also key arms, with Tanner Banks, José Ruiz, and Tyler Gilbert rounding out the staff. Hoffman leads the team with 63 appearances this year, with a 1.76 ERA, 10 saves, and 81 strikeouts over 61 1⁄3 innings. Alvarado has 13 saves with a 3.92 ERA, Strahm has three saves with a 2.06 ERA, and Kerkering has a 1.99 ERA. Estévez has a 1.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 18 2⁄3 innings since being added to the team, picking up six saves. As a pitching staff, the Phillies have a 3.74 ERA (seventh) and 1,312 strikeouts (eighth). Their starters have an ERA of 3.68, which ranks fifth in baseball, while the bullpen’s 3.84 ERA ranks 13th.
Probable Pitchers
Monday, September 16 @ 6:40 p.m: Aaron Civale (4.57 ERA, 4.70 FIP) vs. Ranger Suárez (3.05 ERA, 3.09 FIP)
Civale has had a solid two-plus months since being acquired in early July from the Rays. In 11 starts with the Brewers, he’s 4-2 with a 3.84 ERA and 52 strikeouts across 58 2⁄3 innings. His last start came against the Giants in San Francisco, where he allowed two runs on three hits and a walk with two strikeouts across 5 1⁄3 innings in a win. This is his first career appearance against the Phillies.
Suárez is having a career year with the Phillies this season, with a 3.05 ERA and a career-high 134 strikeouts across 138 2⁄3 innings thus far. Despite those season numbers, he’s had a rough go of it lately, with a 5.30 ERA over his last seven starts spread around an IL stint that kept him out for most of August. In four starts since returning, he’s allowed nine runs over 19 1⁄3 innings (4.19 ERA) with 18 strikeouts. The Brewers missed Suárez last time these squads faced off, but in three career starts against Milwaukee, he has a 2.87 ERA and 14 strikeouts across 15 2⁄3 innings.
Tuesday, September 17 @ 6:40 p.m: Frankie Montas (4.49 ERA, 4.40 FIP) vs. Zack Wheeler (2.60 ERA, 3.21 FIP)
In what would usually be Colin Rea’s starting spot, the Brewers have moved Montas and Freddy Peralta up a day as DL Hall started in Sunday’s series finale in Arizona and Rea has been hit hard lately (19 runs over his last 18 2⁄3 innings). Like Civale, Montas has been solid since joining the Brewers at the trade deadline. In eight starts for Milwaukee, he’s 3-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 50 strikeouts across 45 innings. His last start was one of his best in a Brewers uniform, as he allowed no runs on two hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over six innings in a win. In two career starts against Philadelphia, he’s 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA and 11 strikeouts over 10 2⁄3 innings. One of those appearances came back in April while he was with the Reds, where he allowed one run on five hits and three walks with five strikeouts across 5 2⁄3 innings.
Wheeler is once again among the contenders for NL Cy Young, with a 2.60 ERA and 199 strikeouts over 179 2⁄3 innings this season. He had a strong month of August (1.62 ERA and 44 strikeouts over 39 innings) and he’s looked solid in two starts in September (12 innings, 16 strikeouts, 2.25 ERA). He was one of the pitchers to shut Milwaukee’s offense down back in June, allowing one run on five hits and three walks with six strikeouts over seven innings. Wheeler, who was nearly a Brewer at the 2015 trade deadline, has made 10 career starts against Milwaukee with a 2.53 ERA and 72 strikeouts across 64 innings.
Wednesday, September 18 @ 6:40 p.m: Freddy Peralta (3.75 ERA, 4.27 FIP) vs. Aaron Nola (3.62 ERA, 4.09 FIP)
Peralta has had an up-and-down season but he’s looked strong since the start of August, with a 5-2 record, 35 strikeouts, and a 3.35 ERA over 43 innings. He went five innings in his last start against Arizona, allowing one run on six hits and four walks with five strikeouts. Peralta did not pitch in Milwaukee’s series against Philadelphia in June, but he’s made six appearances (five starts) against them in his career. Across 24 2⁄3 innings, he’s struck out 36 with a 4.01 ERA.
Nola has been a middle-of-the-road starter for Philadelphia for just about his entire career. He has a 3.71 career ERA and a 3.62 ERA in 2024, though his 4.09 FIP is the worst mark of his career. He’s struck out 174 batters over 181 1⁄3 innings this season as he closes in on 200 strikeouts for what would be the sixth consecutive season (excluding the COVID-19 season in 2020). He looked like an ace against Milwaukee in June, allowing no runs on just two hits with five strikeouts across seven innings. In 13 career starts against the Brewers, he has a 2.76 ERA and 86 strikeouts across 78 1⁄3 innings.
Prediction
This is one of the toughest series we’ve seen at American Family Field this season, especially with three of Philadelphia’s top arms set to start. I’d be happy to take two of three as Milwaukee looks to lock up the division at home.