It’s the last series of the regular season
As the Brewers head home for their final series of the regular season, they know what their schedule will look like. They have three games against the Mets, then an NL Wild Card Series at home. That’s a very relieving situation to be in, especially when you consider the state of the rest of the National League.
The situation for the Mets entering this weekend’s series is complicated, to say the least. At this point, the entire wild card picture is a mess. With Hurricane Helene heading toward landfall and Atlanta in the projected path, rain is already causing havoc in the area. The final two games of the Braves-Mets series were rained out and will be made up on Monday as a traditional doubleheader.
For the Mets, this puts them in a very rough spot. They currently hold the fifth seed in the National League by percentage points over the Diamondbacks (the Mets also hold the tiebreaker). The Braves are one game back. The Mets could have to play all three games in Milwaukee, fly back to Atlanta for a doubleheader, then fly back to Milwaukee or to San Diego for the wild card series. There’s still even a long-shot scenario in play where the Mets host the wild card series.
The Mets also have other teams to watch this weekend. The Braves and Royals meet in Atlanta over the weekend, with both teams fighting for a wild card spot in their respective leagues. With Hurricane Helene projected to hit the area, another postponement is possible that could push the Braves into an even tighter spot. Meanwhile, the Padres and Diamondbacks meet in Arizona. The Diamondbacks will be fighting for a spot, but the Padres will still have something to play for (either the NL West title or the fourth seed for a home series). Even the Phillies and Dodgers aren’t in a position to rest yet, as they both are fighting for the top seed and home-field advantage.
Of all these teams, the Brewers have the simplest situation: They will be the three seed and host someone. It’s going to be workload management and pitching setup before the postseason in this series. Pat Murphy will have to decide how much to push the Mets, knowing they are a potential opponent for next week. He’ll also have to manage keeping the team in good shape.
With all of that out of the way, let’s talk about the Mets. It’s a different team from the one that the Brewers faced at the start of the season. Their first two months were incredibly rough. They started out the season 0-5 but put together a six-game winning streak in mid-April that got them to 12-8. After that, they slumped again, reaching a bottom point of 11 games under .500 on June 2 at 24-35. From there, they’ve fought back. They’ve gone 63-35 since then, moving from 11 games under .500 to 17 games over. That includes a nine-game winning streak to start the month of September, as well as a 15-6 overall record in the month.
The Mets’ offense has been a key factor for them all season. They are one of six teams to top the 200 home run mark (203) and have a top 10 offense in runs scored (seventh, 751) on-base percentage (eighth, .321), slugging percentage (ninth, .418), and wRC+ (seventh, 110).
Francisco Lindor has been the best player on this offense so far this season. He leads the team in hits (163), runs scored (103), and stolen bases (27). He is also second on the team in several other categories. He played in every game until Sept. 16, when he was held out of the lineup with lower back pain. He did not go on the IL and was ready to return on Tuesday as a pinch hitter, but did not get a plate appearance as the game ended with him in the on-deck circle. He was expected to start on Wednesday, but the rainouts delayed his return two more days. He will be fully good to go when the series starts on Friday.
The Mets also feature three other players on offense with a wRC+ over 125. Mark Vientos has been the primary third baseman and has been solid at the plate all year. Jose Iglesias provided a boost to the team at the end of May, starting the season on a minor league contract before joining the roster and posting a team-high batting average of .336 and wRC+ of 138. Pete Alonso is still a power threat, leading the team in home runs (38) and RBI (88).
One of the main reasons for the Mets’ rebound has been the turnaround in their pitching staff. In the first half of the season, their team ERA was 22nd in the league (4.23) and their team FIP was 23rd (4.28). They’ve turned that around in the second half, improving their team ERA to sixth (3.47) and FIP to seventh (3.73).
A key component of that turnaround is in the bullpen, which features four relievers with an ERA under 2.50 (Dedniel Núñez, Phil Maton, José Buttó, Sean Reid-Foley). That doesn’t include their closer, Edwin Díaz, who has 20 saves this season and a 2.59 ERA, 1.89 FIP, and 15.53 K/9 in the second half. Reed Garrett has also been a major part of the bullpen, leading the bullpen in innings (56 2⁄3) and also posting a 1.84 ERA and 1.94 FIP in the second half.
Meanwhile, the rotation is in flux as the Mets have to realign after the rainouts. Two of their best starters, David Peterson and Sean Manaea, were lined up to pitch in the last two games of the Braves series. However, following the rainouts, that is up in the air. The one advantage to the rainouts for the Mets is that they will basically have all their starters available for this series and the doubleheader on Monday, and can align them however they want. Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Tylor Megill could all factor into the rotation in this series, though the team has yet to announce starters.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, September 28 @ 7:10 p.m: TBA vs. Frankie Montas
Even though a starter hasn’t been named, the expectation is that Sean Manaea (3.29 ERA, 3.75 FIP) will make the start on Friday for the Mets. As their strongest starter all season, it’s almost required for him to start on Friday to make sure the Mets can have him pitch in a potential Wild Card series (a Friday start would allow him to start game two on regular rest). Manaea leads the team in strikeouts (183) and is second in innings pitched (178) this season. His last start was on Saturday when he gave up three runs in seven innings to the Phillies. (Update: The Mets have officially named Manaea as Friday’s starter.)
With Frankie Montas set to pitch on Friday, he’s lining up to be one of the starters in the Wild Card series, likely with Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers. Montas could use a bounce-back game before heading into the postseason. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, he didn’t make it through three innings as he allowed eight runs (seven earned).
Saturday, September 29 @ 6:15 p.m: TBA vs. TBA (FOX Game)
Sunday, September 30 @ 2:10 p.m: TBA vs. TBA
These games are completely up in the air with the Brewers preparing for the NLWCS and the Mets still deciding on who to pitch in which game. Despite that, it’s likely we will see Colin Rea and DL Hall in these two games, along with some other long relievers. Aaron Civale pitched today so we likely won’t see him again in the regular season. Tobias Myers might even get an inning of work in here since it would be over a week between his Tuesday start and the wild card series otherwise. Also, don’t be surprised if we see a random pitcher get called up to take some innings (e.g. Caleb Boushley last season).
Prediction
This series is one of the hardest to predict this season just because there’s so much uncertainty going into it. How hard will the Brewers play? It’s not a good idea to go overboard here, but we’ve seen too many teams rest too much going into the postseason and then come out flat. The one factor that we know will be there is the Mets’ push for a postseason spot. For that reason alone, I’m going to predict the Mets taking this series, with the Brewers taking one to not enter the postseason on a losing streak.