Brewers return home for first time since the All-Star break
Coming off solid back-to-back series wins against the rival Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs out of the All-Star break, the Brewers now return home to take on the Miami Marlins to begin their second-half home schedule. Milwaukee faced Miami in Florida back in May, dropping two of three to the last-place squad.
The Marlins have an extremely depleted pitching staff, with Eury Pérez, Sixto Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Josh Simpson, Ryan Weathers, Sandy Alcantara, and Braxton Garrett all facing extended stays on the injured list. That leaves Miami in a similar situation to Milwaukee, having sent 15 players out for starts this season. Trevor Rogers leads the squad with 20 starts, though he hasn’t had great results — more on him later.
On offense, the Marlins are led by Jazz Chisholm, who’s had a solid season as he looks like a top trade candidate nearing the deadline. He’s hitting .249/.321/.408 with 13 homers, 50 RBIs, 44 runs, and 21 steals in 100 games this season. Bryan De La Cruz leads the team with 17 homers while appearing in a team-high 102 games as he’s hit .241/.285/.410. Josh Bell, Jesús Sánchez, Jake Burger, and Nick Gordon are also cornerstones of this team, with Burger especially finding his stride after a rough start to the season.
As a team, the Marlins rank near the bottom in most categories offensively, hitting .236/.288/.358 (29th in team OPS) with 86 homers (29th) and 368 runs scored (29th).
On the mound, Tanner Scott is the top arm at the back end of the bullpen, with a 1.21 ERA and 18 saves in 20 opportunities this season. He’s struck out 51 batters in 44 2⁄3 innings as he also figures to be on the move at the deadline. Andrew Nardi and Anthony Bender lead the team with 48 and 44 appearances, respectively, though Nardi has an ERA of 5.03 and Bender’s ERA is at 3.99. Calvin Faucher (3.11 ERA, 37 2⁄3 innings), Declan Cronin (3.40 ERA, 50 1⁄3 innings), and Burch Smith (4.25 ERA, 29 2⁄3 innings) are also key parts of the ‘pen, while A.J. Puk has functioned as both a starter and reliever this year, with 34 appearances (four starts) and a 4.30 ERA over 44 innings.
UPDATE: Puk was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday night, so I think it’s safe to say the Brewers won’t see him this weekend.
As a staff, the Marlins rank 29th in starter ERA (5.18) and 12th in bullpen ERA (3.75), with a team ERA of 4.50 coming in at 25th in MLB.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, July 26 @ 7:10 p.m: Freddy Peralta (6-5, 3.88 ERA, 3.55 FIP) vs. Trevor Rogers (1-9, 4.59 ERA, 4.36 FIP)
Peralta has had a roller coaster ride of a season thus far, but he looked good against the Twins last weekend, albeit on a higher pitch count. He allowed no runs on two hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over six scoreless innings on 102 pitches. He’s 0-1 in July with a 4.20 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 15 innings across three starts. This marks his 10th appearance (seventh start) against Miami, as he’s 3-3 with a 4.19 ERA and 45 strikeouts over 34 1⁄3 career innings.
Rogers has had a series of disappointing seasons since finishing as the runner-up in the NL Rookie of the Year voting and being named an All-Star in 2021. Through 20 starts (100 innings) this season, he’s 1-9 with a 4.59 ERA, though he’s looked better as of late, with a 3.32 ERA over his last seven starts (38 innings). In four starts against Milwaukee, he’s 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 25 strikeouts across 20 innings.
Saturday, July 27 @ 6:10 p.m: Aaron Civale (2-7, 5.17 ERA, 5.01 FIP) vs. TBD
In three starts with Milwaukee, Civale has been underwhelming, allowing 10 runs over 15 2⁄3 innings (5.74 ERA) with 18 strikeouts. He did have a solid start against the Pirates on July 11, allowing one run across 6 1⁄3 innings in a loss, but he was hit hard against the Twins his last time out, giving up a pair of homers in 4 1⁄3 innings. He’s made one start against the Marlins in his career, getting the win as he allowed two runs and struck out five over five innings.
The Marlins haven’t yet announced a starter for either of the final two games of this series. The team only has four healthy starters listed on their depth chart, so it’s possible this spot goes to an arm currently in the minor leagues, or it could be a bullpen game. One such candidate is Max Meyer, who pitched like an ace in three starts with the Marlins to start the season (2.12 ERA, 14 strikeouts in 17 innings) before being sent back to Triple-A to limit his innings. The former third-overall pick last pitched on July 20, so he’s one option for Saturday or Sunday’s game.
Sunday, July 28 @ 1:10 p.m: Tobias Myers (6-4, 3.14 ERA, 4.17 FIP) vs. TBD
Myers has been strong since returning from the minor leagues in early June, making eight starts in which he’s gone 5-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 50 2⁄3 innings. He had a mediocre start against the Cubs last time out, allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits and two walks with six strikeouts over 5 1⁄3 innings. He pitched one inning in relief against Miami earlier this season, earning his first career win with a scoreless inning in which he allowed a hit and struck out two.
This is Kyle Tyler’s turn in the rotation, as he last pitched on Monday. This is his third MLB season with a third team, having pitched in five games with the Angels in 2021 and two games with the Padres in 2022. In five appearances (four starts) with Miami this year, he’s 0-1 with a 3.92 ERA and 15 strikeouts over 20 2⁄3 innings. In two July starts, he’s allowed five runs over 10 innings (4.50 ERA) with eight strikeouts. This would mark his first career appearance against the Brewers.
Prediction
This has the makings of a trap series with the Braves coming to town to start next week. Still, the Marlins have a depleted pitching staff and their offense isn’t led by Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich anymore. I’ll take the Brewers to win two of three as we near the trade deadline.