Brewers to face Dodgers in high-octane series
The Dodgers were one of the presumptive World Series favorites entering the season, but a bevy of injuries has left the team looking for new solutions — not unlike the Brewers. While neither team is at full strength, it will be an entertaining spectacle between two of the best teams in the National League.
The narrative surrounding the Dodgers has shifted quite drastically in recent weeks. While their offensive performance has been fine, ranking 12th in wRC+ in the last 30 days, their pitching has been forced to evolve around injuries to both the rotation and bullpen. Just this weekend, promising rookie River Ryan was shut down with forearm tightness, eliminating another potential option for the rotation.
While the team might not be at their best, it will be filled with big names and new circumstances. Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler will both be starting in this series, along with Gavin Stone and recent trade acquisition Jack Flaherty. Flaherty’s arrival might have seemed like a luxury at the start of the season, but it’s now one of the most impactful moves of the deadline as the Dodgers look to fend off the surging Diamondbacks and Padres.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Monday, August 12 @ 7:10 p.m: Freddy Peralta (4.02 ERA, 3.99 FIP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (4.38 ERA, 3.42 FIP)
Who wouldn’t want this matchup?
Neither ace is at their best, but that’s part of what makes this so interesting. Peralta has a 4.60 ERA over his last six starts while walking over four batters per nine innings and allowing more home runs. His return to dominance would be welcome in a series like this.
Kershaw is one of the greatest to ever do it, but he’s been constantly battling injuries and has logged just 12 1⁄3 innings this year. He has yet to pitch five innings in any of his three starts, but he allowed just one run against the Phillies in his most recent outing.
Tuesday, August 13 @ 7:10 p.m: Colin Rea (3.38 ERA, 4.26 FIP) vs. Gavin Stone (3.71 ERA, 4.06 FIP)
Colin Rea has been an unexpected stalwart for Milwaukee lately. Over his past 10 starts (ten!), he has allowed more than two runs in just two of those outings. Not only has he been limiting runs, but he’s been doing it with style. Rea has racked up 30 strikeouts over his last 23 innings.
Gavin Stone is one of the Dodgers’ many young promising arms, but he doesn’t profile as a flamethrowing, strikeout maestro with his paltry 6.89 K/9. Rather, he thrives by limiting hard contact. Even that has been a troublesome issue for Stone recently as he has allowed seven home runs over his last five starts, contributing to his 6.29 ERA in that span.
Wednesday, August 14 @ 7:10 p.m: Frankie Montas (5.10 ERA, 4.92 FIP) vs. Walker Buehler (5.84 ERA, 6.07 FIP)
Montas has had a bumpy landing in Milwaukee, but this will be a prime bounce-back opportunity against another struggling pitcher. It’s been a difficult season as a whole for Montas with his worst walk rate since 2017 and his highest home run rate since 2020. While this might just be one positive takeaway, he still throws 95 MPH on his fastball with a 40.1% whiff rate on his secondary pitch, the split finger.
Buehler’s season is difficult to judge. You don’t get to a 5.84 ERA on accident, but it seems unfair to call him a bad pitcher now. He worked his way back from injury, but there haven’t been many signs that he is close to returning to his old form. His recent run of five starts has been particularly disastrous, allowing 32 hits, including seven home runs, over 23 2⁄3 innings. He isn’t getting batters to miss with one of the lowest whiff rates in baseball.
Thursday, August 15 @ 1:10 p.m: Tobias Myers (2.79 ERA, 4.12 FIP) vs. Jack Flaherty (2.97 ERA, 3.12 FIP)
Somehow, Tobias Myers continues to improve. His five most recent starts have provided more evidence of his underlying skills pointing to positive performance, even as his 4.12 FIP continues to outweigh his 2.79 ERA. In this run, he’s walked fewer batters and surrendered fewer home runs while holding opponents to a .189 batting average. It’s important to note that these were all against teams currently outside of the playoff picture.
Jack Flaherty’s renaissance season continues with the Dodgers now after a stellar first half with the Tigers. In two starts with Los Angeles, Flaherty had one lockdown outing against the A’s and a four-earned run showing against the Pirates in which he still struck out 10 batters. Flaherty has been one of the premier strikeout artists in the game this season, but he still surrenders a fair amount of hard contact. The Brewers rank exactly 15th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers in the past 30 days, so this could be a difficult matchup against a dangerous pitcher if Flaherty is at his best.
Prediction
I think a split series is the easy call here, but I’ll lean toward Milwaukee winning three of four if I must. Both teams have had to handle absences from key players, but I trust the depth of the Brewers to crack pitchers like Kershaw or Buehler. The Dodgers don’t have a powerhouse lineup like the Braves might have had a year ago. Even with players like Shohei Ohtani and the recent return of Freddie Freeman, the Dodgers rank 12th in runs scored and wOBA over the past 30 days entering play on Sunday, so there’s certainly a pathway for the Brewers to take a series win.