Brewers welcome Reds to town to begin long homestand
Coming off one of the best series of the season in Atlanta, the Brewers will look to carry the momentum back to Milwaukee as they begin a long homestand that features three games with the Reds, four games with the Dodgers, and three games with the Guardians.
The Cincinnati Reds are the first group in town, with the three-game set kicking off on Friday night. The Reds are among the teams who held mostly pat at the trade deadline, trading Frankie Montas (Brewers), Austin Slater (Orioles), Livan Soto (Orioles), Lucas Sims (Red Sox), and Andruw Salcedo (Mariners) while acquiring Jakob Junis (Brewers), Joey Wiemer (Brewers), and Ty France (Mariners), as well as a group of prospects.
The Brewers will likely not see the former Brewer Wiemer, as he was optioned to Triple-A Louisville on Wednesday after appearing in just two games with the Reds with just one plate appearance (a walk). Among the injured Reds are fellow former Brewer Brent Suter, who is expected to be back in late August. Other injuries include Matt McLain, Austin Wynns, Graham Ashcraft, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Brandon Williamson.
Brewer-killer Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds in most major statistical categories, including hits (115), homers (20), runs (76), doubles (26, tied with Spencer Steer), triples (seven), and steals (59). He’s hitting .268/.354/.501 this season. Other key cogs in the offense include Jeimer Candelario (18 homers and 22 doubles), Steer (team-high 66 RBIs with 15 homers and 18 steals), Tyler Stephenson (14 homers, 43 RBIs), and Jonathan India (nine homers, 10 steals, 60 runs). As a team, the Reds rank 11th in homers (133), 15th in runs (516), and 16th in OPS (.231/.304/.399 line for a .703 OPS).
Out of the bullpen, Fernando Cruz leads the team with 55 appearances, though his 5.16 ERA over 45 1⁄3 innings leaves something to be desired. Alexis Díaz is 22-for-24 in save opportunities, though he has a 4.28 ERA. Buck Farmer and Sam Moll are arguably the top two arms in the ‘pen, with a 2.53 ERA and 2.54 ERA, respectively. Short-lived Brewer Justin Wilson is also available in the bullpen for Cincinnati. As a team, the Reds rank 12th in staff strikeouts (983) and 10th in team ERA (3.90), including a 4.09 starter ERA (14th) and a 3.63 bullpen ERA (7th).
Probable Pitching Matchups
Friday, August 9 @ 7:10 p.m: Aaron Civale (2-8, 5.14 ERA, 4.92 FIP) vs. Carson Spiers (4-3, 3.59 ERA, 3.69 FIP)
Civale has had a middling start to his Brewers career, pitching to a 5.40 ERA with 24 strikeouts across 25 innings in five starts since joining Milwaukee in early July. His last time around he allowed five runs on seven hits and a walk with three punchouts over four innings against the Nationals. He’s made just one start against the Reds in his career, allowing one run over seven innings with five strikeouts in a win.
Spiers, in his second MLB season, started the season out of the bullpen, making five appearances before shifting to the rotation. In seven starts, he has a 4.23 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 38 1⁄3 innings. His last time out against the Giants, Spiers allowed three runs on five hits with five strikeouts over 5 2⁄3 innings in a loss. He appeared in relief against Milwaukee in his season debut on April 9, allowing four runs (three earned) over four innings.
Saturday, August 10 @ 6:10 p.m: Tobias Myers (6-5, 3.02 ERA, 4.40 FIP) vs. Nick Martinez (6-5, 3.43 ERA, 3.10 FIP)
Myers continues to outperform his his peripheral numbers, but who cares so long as the results are good. He had another solid start despite getting pinned with the loss against the Nationals in his last start, allowing one run on four hits and a walk with two strikeouts over five innings. This is his first career appearance against the Reds.
Martinez has reverse stats from Myers, with his 3.10 FIP closer to Myers’ ERA of 3.02. While he doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters (68 in 84 innings), he’s been great at limiting walks (just 10 in 84 innings). He moved to the bullpen back in late May, returning to the rotation only recently after the departure of Montas. In five innings against the Marlins on Monday, he allowed no runs on four hits with five strikeouts over five innings in a win. He’s made six appearances (two starts) against the Brewers in his career, with a 4.26 ERA and 16 strikeouts over 19 innings.
Sunday, August 11 @ 1:10 p.m: TBD vs. Nick Lodolo (9-4, 3.93 ERA, 3.79 FIP)
The Brewers have yet to announce a starter for Sunday, though this is a DL Hall sized spot if I’ve ever seen one (and Curt Hogg concurs). Hall was 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA over 16 1⁄3 innings in four starts before going down with an injury in April. In 13 minor league starts during his rehab assignment, Hall has a 2.78 ERA with 29 strikeouts over 32 1⁄3 innings.
Lodolo has solid season numbers but has struggled after a strong start. He won his last start (two earned runs on two hits and three walks with seven strikeouts over six innings), but he has a 5.97 ERA with 37 strikeouts over 37 2⁄3 innings in his last seven starts. He’s made three good starts against Milwaukee in his young career, with a 2.89 ERA and 21 strikeouts across 18 2⁄3 innings.
Prediction
It’ll be hard for the Brewers to repeat the offensive barrage they just unleashed on the Braves, but I still have faith in this team, especially against the depleted Reds. I’ll take Milwaukee in another series win before they welcome the mighty Dodgers to town.