The NL Wild Card leaders come into Milwaukee next
With the trade deadline a few days away, the Brewers will get a potential postseason preview. Currently leading the NL Wild Card race, the Braves could be an opponent for the Brewers should both teams make it to the postseason. These two teams will play all six of their games this season in the next week and a half. The Brewers will return the trip to Atlanta next week, and this is the second of four straight series against NL East opponents.
Injuries have hurt the Braves offense quite a bit this season. They lost Ronald Acuña Jr. for the season in May to an ACL tear. Then Michael Harris II went down with a left hamstring strain on June 14 and he will be out until mid-August. The most recent injury was to Ozzie Albies, who fractured his left wrist on July 21 and will not return until September.
This has contributed to a Braves offense that has been a little below average this season. They are 19th in MLB in wRC+ (96), 12th in SLG (.403), and 24th in OBP (.303). Marcell Ozuna is leading the offense with a 30 HR season. He’s also posted a .307/.385/.596 batting line and a 170 wRC+. However, the offense drops off quickly after that. Austin Riley (13), Jarred Kelenic (11), and Matt Olson (15) are the other three Braves with double-digit home runs. However, Riley is the only one of those with a wRC+ over 100 (112). The Braves also lost most of their speed on the bases with Acuña Jr’s injury. He had 16 steals before going down for the season, and the next highest steal totals are from Ozzie Albies and Harris II (both with eight). Their offense has struggled even more in the last month, with their 90 wRC+ ranking 26th in MLB.
Meanwhile, the pitching staff has also seen its fair share of injuries. Max Fried went on the IL on July 21 with left forearm neuritis, and his recovery timeline is uncertain. Prospect Hurston Waldrep is also on the IL with right elbow inflammation but is currently on a rehab assignment. They have also lost Ray Kerr, Spender Strider, and Angel Perdomo for the season. In addition to that, Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa are on the IL but have uncertain timelines. The most recent injury was to Reynaldo López, who left Sunday’s game with right forearm tightness.
Despite the injuries, the Braves have one of the best pitching staffs in all of MLB. Their 9.15 K/9 team strikeout rate leads MLB. They also have one of the lowest walk rates in MLB (2.82 BB/9), the third-best team ERA (3.48), and the second-best FIP (3.50). Chris Sale has become a force again in the rotation, and Reynaldo López leads MLB starters in ERA. Raisel Iglesias and Jesse Chavez set up a potent 1-2 punch in the bullpen. They have eight different relievers with a sub-3 ERA. Offense could be a premium against them, but the Brewers may have a chance to break through early. Their rotation is in a strange spot that could work to the Brewers’ advantage.
Probable Pitchers
Monday, July 29 @ 7:10 p.m: Grant Holmes (2.70 ERA, 2.12 FIP) vs. Colin Rea (3.60 ERA, 4.31 FIP)
In his rookie season, Grant Holmes has been pitching out of the bullpen since mid-June. He’s been a long reliever for the team so far. In his 10 appearances, he’s had seven scoreless games. His last two appearances have been three-plus innings, and he allowed three and two runs in those appearances. This will be the first start of his major-league career. He has maxed out at 52 pitches in the majors. In the minors, he’s made a few starts this season. His longest minor league start was five innings.
Colin Rea is coming off a strong start against the Cubs on Tuesday. He pitched five key scoreless innings as the Brewers took a 1-0 win in a pitchers’ duel. The Brewers have had success when he pitches, with the Brewers 14-6 in his starts (though three of those are following an opener). His strikeout rate has been ticking upward, and he’s had 15 strikeouts over his last two starts. He’s also limited his home runs home recently, and has allowed just one in his last four starts. That has helped drop his FIP by half a run.
Tuesday, July 30 @ 7:10 p.m: TBD vs. TBD
It’s a strange gap here as neither team has announced a starter for Tuesday’s game. Chris Sale could pitch for the Braves here on four days rest with Charlie Morton starting Wednesday on four days rest, but the Braves are starting Sale on Wednesday instead. It’s strange but not out of the ordinary for the Braves this season, as they have been regularly giving their starters five days of rest. However, in this situation, it leaves them without an obvious starter for Tuesday. Max Fried went on the IL on July 21, and Bryce Elder was sent down to the minors after his start on July 20. Allan Winans also made a recent start but was optioned on July 25. Even if the Braves make this a bullpen game, they will likely need to make a roster move to help with depth.
The Brewers also haven’t announced a starter for Tuesday, but they have a likely starter lined up with Joe Ross expected to make his return from the IL. He has been on the IL since May 21 with a low back strain. He’s made four starts in the minors, one for High-A Wisconsin and three for Triple-A Nashville. His last start for Nashville was 4 1⁄3 innings, and he allowed three runs and five hits on 80 pitches. Bryse Wilson should also be available for a long relief appearance if needed.
Wednesday, July 31 @ 1:10 p.m: Chris Sale (2.68 ERA, 2.29 FIP) vs. Freddy Peralta (3.94 ERA, 3.82 FIP)
The series will finish with a matchup of team aces. Chris Sale has returned to his All-Star form in his first season with the Braves. He leads MLB with 13 wins, and the Braves are 13-6 when he pitches. In his 19 starts this season, he’s allowed more than two runs in only three of those starts. He’s also fourth in MLB in K/9 rate (11.429) and is fourth with 149 strikeouts. The Braves have been cautious with his usage, with 105 his high for pitches thrown in a start. He also hasn’t exceeded 7 1⁄3 innings, and as mentioned above, he usually pitches on at least five days rest.
On the other side, Freddy Peralta will look to match Sale in this game. Peralta is also among the MLB leaders in strikeout stats. His 11.178 K/9 is sixth in all of MLB, and he’s eighth with 142 strikeouts. Unfortunately, Peralta hasn’t had the same success as Sale this season. His last start was a rough one on Friday, allowing five runs (three earned) in 5 1⁄3 innings to the Marlins. With two strikeout-heavy pitchers on the mound, this could be a game where runs are at a premium.
Prediction
The Brewers are catching the Braves at a good time. The Braves are facing an unusual gap in their rotation and the Brewers are getting stronger with the return of Joe Ross and Devin Williams. Wednesday’s game may favor the Braves, but the Brewers have good opportunities in the first two games. This will be an interesting one to watch with a potential postseason opponent in town. I’ll predict the Brewers to bounce back and take two of three here.