Brewers pay a visit to flailing Cardinals
The Milwaukee Brewers head to St. Louis for a midweek matchup against the Cardinals. It could be another triumphant moment in a campaign that continues to gain momentum.
When these two teams face off on Tuesday, the Brewers will enter the game with a 6-1 season record against the Cardinals. As these two teams seemingly head in different directions through the second half, a strong series will essentially sink the Cardinals’ dwindling playoff hopes.
The Cardinals still sit second place in the National League Central, but they’ve not been a convincing squad. Here are the run differentials in the NL Central this year:
Brewers: +106
Cardinals: -62
Cubs: +4
Reds: +30
Pirates: -31
A negative 62 mark? That doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals who now have to face a Brewers team on a 10-3 run.
The Cardinals have struggled to make an impact on offense lately. Over the past 30 days, their team leaders in wRC+ are players hovering around just 50 plate appearances, including trade acquisition Tommy Pham, Michael Siani, and Pedro Pages.
The everyday starters have been fine, but hardly remarkable. Players like Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Paul Goldschmidt have only been slightly above league average.
While their offense isn’t a dominant force, they still have several strengths. Over the past 30 days, St. Louis has been one of the toughest teams to strike out while ranking 10th in home runs, according to FanGraphs.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Tuesday, August 20 @ 6:45 p.m: Frankie Montas (4.86 ERA, 4.79 FIP) vs. Erick Fedde (3.40 ERA, 4.01 FIP)
Frankie Montas is still finding his season riddled with speed bumps, but his recent starts have offered some promise. Over his last four starts, Montas has an 11.78 K/9, compared to his season mark of 8.05. His last start was a mediocre five-inning performance in which he allowed three runs, but none of them were earned, striking out six and walking three.
Erick Fedde hasn’t looked as settled since he swapped his White Sox jersey for the Cardinals. In three starts, he’s only had one good outing while allowing at least four runs in the other two. Batters have been hitting the ball in the air a lot more against Fedde, leading to a slightly inflated home run rate and fewer groundballs to convert into outs.
Wednesday, August 21 @ 6:45 p.m: Tobias Myers (2.81 ERA, 4.06 FIP) vs. Kyle Gibson (4.26 ERA, 4.32 FIP)
Tobias Myers finally ran into some trouble in his latest start against the Dodgers. He allowed four runs, two earned, but his eight hits allowed were his most since July 4. His one strikeout was hardly impressive against one of the better teams in baseball but look for Myers to bounce back in this outing. He had a 1.21 ERA over his previous five starts. This will be his second start against the Cardinals this year. His first came on May 9 when he pitched four innings and allowed one run.
Kyle Gibson is yet another Cardinals starter struggling in recent weeks. Gibson has posted a 6.11 ERA over his last three starts, including an ugly game against the Reds in his most recent outing. He allowed four home runs to Cincinnati. Similar to Fedde, Gibson has not been able to keep the ball on the ground. In his past four outings, opponents have hit just a 34.7% groundball rate compared to his season-long rate of 46.2%.
Thursday, August 22 @ 1:15 p.m: Freddy Peralta (4.00 ERA, 4.18 FIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (5.41 ERA, 4.20 FIP)
Peralta bounced back from a rough stretch with a crucial six-inning outing against the Cleveland Guardians. In a tough, low-scoring matchup, Peralta allowed just one run while stifling hard contact from Cleveland. Both of Peralta’s starts against the Cardinals this season came early on, allowing three runs over 12 innings. He struck out 15 batters in those two matchups, so this could be another big day for Peralta. It will be interesting to follow his pitch mix as he used his curveball more in his most recent start than he had all season.
Miles Mikolas has had one good start in the past month. He has allowed fewer than three runs in just one of his past six outings, leading to an unsightly 7.26 ERA. While that’s certainly a poor run of form, his most recent outing might have been the one with the most promise for Mikolas. Despite allowing five runs to the Dodgers, he struck out seven batters for his highest total on the season.
Prediction
The St. Louis Cardinals simply aren’t an impressive team. The offense hasn’t found much of a rhythm and the pitching is struggling. I’m quite optimistic about Myers’ and Peralta’s chances here, and if Montas puts together a decent outing, is it really that wild to predict a sweep?