Brewers head west for exciting road trip
A sluggish offensive effort in their last series left the Milwaukee Brewers with a bad taste in their mouth. They now head west for a potentially thrilling road trip with a chance to look refreshed and productive again.
They kick off a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday, a matchup that is much more important than the Giants’ 71-73 record would suggest. Any win is important, of course, as the Brewers chase one of the top records in the National League. But the Giants fit well into the category of “a World Series team should be able to beat this team,” while still being a fairly, sort of decently good team.
The Giants don’t have many impressive metrics to portray them as a good team, but there are interesting players scattered around the diamond that will make this an exciting series. The Giants offense ranks 18th in wRC+ and their pitching has a 4.20 ERA this year.
Some of their standout players include third baseman Matt Chapman, who recently signed a new extension with the team. He’s still pulling off mesmerizing plays at the hot corner while slashing .251/.334/.451 (120 wRC+). He’s knocked out 23 home runs this season for his fifth season with at least 20.
Much of the Giants’ roster is comprised of developing youngsters. Tyler Fitzgerald was one who had already gone on a hot streak earlier this season. Recently, it’s been Grant McCray, an unlikely prospect with a 30-future grade on his hit tool, according to FanGraphs. He’s batting .243 with five home runs in just 20 games despite carrying a 42.5% strikeout rate.
The Brewers will face two of the Giants’ young pitchers, Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black. The lone established ace they’ll face is reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Ever inscrutable, his past four starts have included two seven-inning, one-run gems, and two other outings that combined for four innings and three earned runs (and eight walks).
Probable Pitchers
Tuesday, September 10 @ 8:45 p.m: Aaron Civale (4.62 ERA, 4.68 FIP) vs. Hayden Birdsong (5.19 ERA, 5.41 FIP)
Civale’s been rather consistent in recent weeks, providing much of the stability the Brewers needed when they traded for him. In his past five starts, he has a 2.54 ERA. A pair of his starts have been shorter, but he’s still allowed just three earned runs in four- and five-inning outings. That’s hardly a blowup and can be dealt with by an impressive Milwaukee bullpen. Perhaps more relevant to the upcoming start was his seven-inning shutout of the Giants just a few weeks ago on August 29.
Birdsong is a prospective talent, racking up plenty of strikeouts, but lacking the consistency to go deep into games. His last six starts have all been cut short before finishing the fifth inning. He has walked at least four batters in three consecutive starts. That’s a recipe for disaster against this Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers cooked it right to plan on August 29 when they scored five runs against Birdsong in just 3 2⁄3 innings.
Wednesday, September 11 @ 8:45 p.m: Colin Rea (3.72 ERA, 4.57 FIP) vs. Blake Snell (3.62 ERA, 2.79 FIP)
Rea’s been a reliable presence this season, but his past two starts have been rather out of character. He’s gone just four innings against the Cardinals and Reds. The Giants fit into a similar category of teams recently fading out of the playoff race. Will he be able to rebound and shut down a mediocre Giants lineup? These past two starts, he has faced just 19 batters in each of them. That’s his lowest in back-to-back starts this season.
Snell has looked like a Cy Young winner this season, except when he doesn’t. It feels nearly impossible to predict how he’ll look in this outing. His last outing consisted of a single inning, allowing two runs while facing eight hitters. While there is always some sense of unpredictability about Snell’s performance, he’s been terrific for most of the season. After returning from injury on July 9, he has an outstanding 1.42 ERA with a 12.08 K/9 mark.
Thursday, September 12 @ 8:45 p.m: Frankie Montas (4.69 ERA, 4.54 FIP) vs. Mason Black (7.50 ERA, 5.97 FIP)
Montas has been steady, but steady doesn’t necessarily equate to great. In his time with Milwaukee, he has allowed either three or four runs in all but one game. There was one outing where those three runs were all unearned, but the point is that Montas hasn’t flashed many dominant starts in his time with the Brewers. His most recent might rank at the top as he went six innings and struck out 10 batters against the Rockies. While he ended up allowing three runs at the end of that start, he didn’t allow a hit through the first five innings.
Black has struggled to adjust to the major leagues, often being used as a fill-in for the Giants. He made four starts in May, then didn’t return until August 31. He has some interesting tools at his disposal, mainly a slider with a 120 Stuff+, but doesn’t seem quite ripe for an everyday role in a major league rotation. His 7.50 ERA is not pretty, giving up a home run in each of his five starts so far with an 11.5%-barrel rate allowed.
Prediction
The Brewers have been disappointing on offense over the last week, but I expect a return to the industrious performances we’ve been accustomed to this season. As far as the Giants rotation goes, I think Birdsong and Black provide an opportunity for the Brewers to jump to an early lead and rely on their own veteran pitching and bullpen to lock down the wins. Against Blake Snell? Who knows, maybe they’ll score five runs in the first few innings or fall prey to a no-hitter. Overall, I think the Brewers should grab a confidence-boosting series win, and potentially push for the sweep.