Brewers hit the road for final time this season as they head to Pittsburgh
With the NL Central all locked up for the Brewers, they dropped three straight to the Diamondbacks before winning a thrilling game on Sunday afternoon, coming back from an 8-0 deficit to win 10-9. They’ll look to keep that momentum going as they hit the road for the last time this season, taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in their last NL Central series this year.
The Pirates came out of the gates red hot this year, leading the division for the first half of April before being passed by the Brewers. Since sitting at 10-4 on April 12, the Pirates are just 63-79, as they’re now in last place with a 73-83 record, 16 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central.
On the injury front, third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes (back inflammation), catcher Henry Davis (hand inflammation), and catcher Endy Rodríguez (elbow surgery) are all likely out for the rest of the season, though Davis is still listed as a return TBD on the team’s injury report. The Pirates have also faced a myriad of pitching injuries, including Kyle Nicolas (oblique strain), Braxton Ashcraft (recurring forearm injury), Ben Heller (shoulder inflammation), Marco Gonzales (forearm strain), Johan Oviedo (Tommy John surgery), Dauri Moreta (UCL surgery), Daulton Jefferies (elbow inflammation), and Hunter Stratton (ruptured patella tendon) all out for the year.
Offensively, the Pirates are led by the trio of Bryan Reynolds (22 homers, 85 RBIs, 10 steals, .276/.343/.444 line), Oneil Cruz (21 homers, 76 RBIs, 22 steals, .268/.331/.466 line), and Andrew McCutchen (20 homers, 50 RBIs, three steals, .238/.336/.423), who, at age 37, has put up his best power numbers since 2021 with the Phillies. Catcher Joey Bart and former Brewer Rowdy Tellez have both flashed power as well, collecting 13 homers each. As a team, the Pirates rank near the bottom in most offensive stats, including homers (151; 26th), runs scored (642; 23rd), batting average (.236; 23rd), OPS (.673; 27th), and stolen bases (104; 16th).
Besides star rookie Paul Skenes (1.99 ERA, 167 strikeouts over 131 innings) — who the Brewers will luckily miss this series — the Pirates haven’t had the most well-rounded pitching staff this season. David Bednar has had his share of troubles as the closer, with a 6.05 ERA and seven blown saves in 59 appearances this year. Aroldis Chapman leads the team with 65 appearances, sporting a 3.97 ERA and 11 saves on the year. Carmen Mlodzinski and Colin Holderman are the other key names in their “winning” bullpen, while Dennis Santana, Ryan Borucki, Jalen Beeks, Joey Wentz, and Isaac Mattson are all on the active roster as well with all of those pitching injuries. As a staff, the Pirates rank 20th in baseball with a 4.16 team ERA, including a 3.93 starter ERA (15th) and a 4.55 reliever ERA (27th). They also rank 21st with 1,302 strikeouts this year.
Probable Pitchers
Tuesday, September 24 @ 5:40 p.m: Tobias Myers (3.05 ERA, 4.07 FIP) vs. Bailey Falter (4.15 ERA, 4.26 FIP)
Tobias Myers made his MLB debut in Pittsburgh with the Crew back in April. This is his third start against Pittsburgh this year, as he’s 1-1 after allowing one run on four hits and one walk with four strikeouts in his debut (a loss) before a stellar eight-inning performance at home in July when he allowed no runs on four hits and one walk with six strikeouts in a win. Despite continuing to outperform his FIP by nearly a run (4.07 FIP vs. 3.05 ERA), Myers has impressed all season and put his name near the top of the list for postseason starter candidacy. In four September starts, he’s 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 26 strikeouts across 21 2⁄3 innings.
Falter went seven innings, allowing one run on three hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in a win over Milwaukee in April. After a rough August (6.53 ERA over five starts), Falter has looked solid in September, sporting a 2.50 ERA with 11 strikeouts across 18 innings in three starts this month. Including that April start, Falter has made three appearances (two starts) against the Brewers in his career with a 1.23 ERA and 13 strikeouts across 14 2⁄3 innings.
Wednesday, September 25 @ 5:40 p.m: Freddy Peralta (3.69 ERA, 4.24 FIP) vs. Luis L. Ortiz (3.43 ERA, 4.26 FIP)
One of Peralta’s worst starts of the season came against this Pirates squad — he allowed five runs on five hits and five walks over 4 2⁄3 innings against Pittsburgh back in April. In four September starts, Peralta is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 21 strikeouts over 20 innings. He’s made more appearances against the Pirates than any other team in his career, with 21 appearances and 12 starts. Over 78 1⁄3 innings against Pittsburgh, he has a 3.56 ERA and 91 strikeouts.
Ortiz, 25, has had a solid season for the Pirates, though his ERA outpaces his FIP by nearly a full run (3.43 ERA vs. 4.26 FIP). He’s made 36 appearances (14 starts) this year with 102 strikeouts across 128 2⁄3 innings, joining the rotation in July amid a series of injuries to Pirates pitchers. In three starts in September, he’s 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 15 2⁄3 innings. He’s appeared twice in relief against the Crew this year, spanning 4 2⁄3 innings and allowing two runs with nine strikeouts. He’s made four appearances (two starts) against Milwaukee in his career, with a 2.93 ERA and 19 strikeouts across 15 1⁄3 innings.
Thursday, September 26 @ 11:35 a.m: Aaron Civale (4.53 ERA, 4.84 FIP) vs. Mitch Keller (4.21 ERA, 4.14 FIP)
Civale has been an anchor in the rotation since coming over in early July, though his 3.84 over 13 starts with Milwaukee may not tell the whole story as his FIP is actually worse with Milwaukee (5.03) than it was with Tampa Bay (4.70), who he had a 5.07 ERA with. In four September starts, Civale is 2-1 with a 4.12 ERA and 17 strikeouts across 19 2⁄3 innings. He went 6 1⁄3 innings against Pittsburgh in July, allowing one run on six hits and a pair of walks with six strikeouts in a loss. In five career starts against the Pirates, he has a 3.94 ERA with 22 strikeouts across 29 2⁄3 innings.
Keller, an All-Star in 2023, had made 30 starts for the second consecutive season, as he’s currently sporting an ERA identical to his 2023 mark at 4.21. He’s struggled in September, allowing 16 earned runs over 20 2⁄3 innings (6.97 ERA) with 22 strikeouts across four starts. Both of his starts against Milwaukee came early in the year, with one on April 25 (five innings, four runs allowed on six hits and two walks with seven strikeouts) and another on May 13 (six innings, no runs allowed on eight hits and no walks with seven strikeouts). He’s made eight career starts against the Crew, with a 5.44 ERA and 47 strikeouts over 41 1⁄3 innings.
Prediction
With the Brewers having virtually nothing to play for (they’re all but eliminated from a top-two seed in the NL at this point) and the Pirates limping to the finish line, this is a low-stakes series and, therefore, hard to predict. The talent of the Brewers is still greater than the Pirates, so I’ll take the Crew to win two of three heading into their last regular-season series.