The Brewers come out of the All-Star break with a series in Minnesota
After a five-day break, the Brewers are back in action on Saturday. They’ll face their interleague rival, the Twins, to kick off the second half of the season. It’s been a while since the two teams have matched up. The first series was back in April when the two teams opened up the Brewers’ home schedule. They split that first series, with the Brewers taking their home opener before dropping the second game. The two teams now meet in Minnesota for what should be the last two-game series they will have to play.
Since the beginning of April, both teams have put together successful seasons. The two teams have a half-game difference in record, with the Brewers having a one win advantage. The Brewers have a 4 1⁄2 game lead in the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Twins are second in the AL Central, five games behind the Guardians, but currently occupy the second AL Wild Card spot.
The Twins offense has been among the better offenses in the AL this season. They have the third-best slugging percentage in MLB (.428) and rank fifth in wRC+ (113). While the team has plenty of power, they don’t do as much on the bases. As a team, they only have 46 steals this season.
They are led by All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa, He’s batted .308/377/.520 this season with 13 home runs and 47 RBI. However, he was recently diagnosed with right plantar fasciitis and missed the All-Star Game as a result. For now, he’s considered day-to-day. The other All-Star on the team is utility player Willi Castro. He joined the All-Star lineup as an injury replacement, and has played all over the field this season. He has played every defensive position (including pitcher) except for catcher and first base. He’s batting .265/.352/.422 with seven home runs, 30 RBI, and 10 steals. One player the Brewers may miss is third baseman Jose Miranda. He was placed on the 10-day IL on July 13 with a low back strain, though is eligible to come off of it on Sunday since it was backdated.
Meanwhile, the Twins’ pitching staff has been strong this season. They’ve had a lot of stability in the rotation, with their main five starters each making at least 16 starts. The Brewers will have to face the two who have made the most starts this season, Pablo López and Joe Ryan. Their starters have been consistent, though have a big discrepancy between ERA (4.49) and FIP (3.98). However, they are also a big strikeout team. They lead the AL in total strikeouts and are third in MLB.
In the bullpen, Jhoan Durán (2.93 ERA, 4.24 FIP) has served as the team’s closer, recording 15 saves this season. Griffin Jax (1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP) has also handled some closing duties. He has recorded seven saves and leads the team in strikeout rate (12.3 K/9). Jorge Alcalá (1.56 ERA, 2.82 FIP) has also been stellar in the bullpen. As a team, the Twins are eighth in MLB in bullpen ERA (3.51) and fourth in bullpen FIP (3.61).
Probable Pitcher Matchups
Saturday, July 20 @ 6:10 p.m: Freddy Peralta (4.11 ERA, 3.69 FIP) vs. Pablo López (5.11 ERA, 3.84 FIP)
Despite the first-half struggles, Freddy Peralta will lead off the second half of the season for the Brewers. His strikeout rate is still strong and he’s seventh in MLB in 130 strikeouts. However, his 4.11 ERA is concerning, though his FIP suggests he’s also been a little unlucky. His last start before the break was not good, as he allowed four runs and 10 hits to the Nationals on July 12.
Pablo López was the Twins’ Opening Day starter and will also open up their second half schedule. He’s also had a bit of tough luck this season with a high ERA but lower FIP. He’s recorded 121 strikeouts this season and has only walked 23 batters. In his last game, he allowed two runs in five innings against the White Sox. He’s had some rough starts, allowing at least five runs in six of his 19 starts. He’s only had one scoreless start, which was a 14-strikeout game against the Athletics.
Sunday, July 21 @ 12:05 p.m: Aaron Civale (4.94 ERA, 4.78 FIP) vs. Joe Ryan (3.53 ERA, 3.45 FIP)
(TV for this game is exclusively on Roku.)
In a bit of a surprise move, the Brewers will go with Aaron Civale second in the rotation against the Twins. However, this could also be positioning the rotation for the early second-half schedule, with the final Cubs series of the season after this one and a series against the Braves to end the month. Civale’s second start with the Brewers was much better than his first. He took a tough-luck loss in a pitchers’ duel against Paul Skenes of the Pirates. In that start, he allowed just one run in 6 1⁄3 innings.
Joe Ryan also holds his spot in the rotation from the start of the season, getting the second start of the second half. He’s arguably been the Twins “ace” this season. He leads the team with 124 strikeouts and also leads the starters in FIP. However, he’s also only had one scoreless start this season (a seven-inning start against the Nationals on May 21). His last start against the Giants was a rough one, allowing five runs in 5 1⁄3 innings on July 12. The majority of his starts are in the five to six inning range, and he’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts.
Prediction
It could be a series for the sluggers in Minnesota, with two high-powered offenses meeting up. The scripts for the two pitching staffs are similar, with good starters leading into strong bullpens. Striking early in these games will be important. As even as these two teams look, it’s easy to see this as a series split.