Brewers finish up West Coast road trip taking on the Dodgers
After a 2-2 series split in Denver, the Brewers will head further west as they take on the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers and Brewers hold nearly identical records heading into the weekend, with the Dodgers at 53-34 and the Brewers at 52-35, pending Thursday night results.
Shohei Ohtani is the most notable injury for the Dodgers, though he’s still available as a hitter. He won’t pitch for L.A. until 2025. Mookie Betts, who was off to a hot start, fractured his hand in mid-June and won’t return to action until August, while pitchers Walker Buehler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Brusdar Graterol, and Joe Kelly are all shelved as well. Max Muncy will also miss this series as he works his way back from a right oblique strain, which is expected to shelve him until mid-to-late July.
Ohtani leads a potent Dodgers offense, as he’s hitting .319/.401/.642 with 27 homers, 64 RBIs, 70 runs, and 16 steals across 84 games. While Betts is out, Teoscar Hernández, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith have picked up the pace. Hernández is second on the team with 19 homers and 59 RBIs, hitting .254/.316/.486 across 85 games, while Freeman is playing slightly worse than usual, hitting 13 homers, 56 RBIs, and slashing .302/.404/.516 across 87 games. Smith is hitting .268/.339/.463 with 11 homers and 50 RBIs across 72 games.
Other key players offensively include Kike Hernández, Andy Pages, Wisconsin native Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor, and Jason Heyward. As a team, the Dodgers rank near the top of the league in runs (third) homers (third), batting average (fifth), on-base percentage (first), slugging (second), and OPS (second).
The Dodgers bullpen is anchored by Alex Vesia and Daniel Hudson, who lead the team with 36 and 35 appearances, respectively. Vesia has a 1.43 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 37 2⁄3 innings, while Hudson has a 1.82 ERA and 38 strikeouts over 34 2⁄3 innings. Evan Phillips leads the team in saves at a perfect 13-for-13 with a 2.10 ERA and 27 strikeouts across 25 2⁄3 innings. Ryan Yarbrough (24 appearances, 3.27 ERA), Blake Treinen (21 appearances, 2.89 ERA), Yohan Ramírez (20 appearances, 3.63 ERA), Anthony Banda (17 appearances, 0.95 ERA), and Michael Petersen (six appearances, 4.66 ERA) also work out of the ‘pen. As a staff, the Dodgers rank fourth in team ERA, including eighth in starter ERA and third in reliever ERA.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, July 5 @ 9:10 p.m: Aaron Civale (2-6, 5.07 ERA, 4.69 FIP) vs. Tyler Glasnow (8-5, 3.23 ERA, 2.69 FIP)
Civale, the newest Brewer, is coming off a pair of solid starts in his last two games with the Rays. He totaled 10 2⁄3 innings, allowing three runs on nine hits and five walks with five strikeouts against the Pirates and Nationals. He’s had a rough season, pitching to a 5.07 ERA across 17 starts. This will mark his first career appearance against the Dodgers.
Like Civale, Glasnow was a trade acquisition from the Rays, joining L.A. this past offseason. He’s had a solid first season with the Dodgers, pitching to a 3.23 ERA with 136 strikeouts across 103 innings (17 starts). He had a pair of five-run starts in June, but he also had three starts of one earned run or less. His last time out came against the Giants, when he allowed five runs in just three innings, his shortest start of the season. In six appearances (two starts) against Milwaukee, he’s 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and 19 strikeouts across 14 2⁄3 innings.
Saturday, July 6 @ 6:15 p.m: Freddy Peralta (6-4, 3.83 ERA, 3.54 FIP) vs. James Paxton (7-2, 4.28 ERA, 4.85 FIP)
Peralta, who’s had an up-and-down season, is coming off a trio of solid starts, allowing just three runs across his last 18 innings with 22 strikeouts to lower his season ERA to 3.83. He’s been a menace against the Dodgers, with an ERA of 1.80 and 21 strikeouts across four starts (20 innings).
Paxton, now with his fourth team, has had solid career, bouncing back after a few rough years with the Dodgers this season. Across 15 starts, he’s totaled a 4.28 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 75 2⁄3 innings. His ERA went up nearly a full run in his last start, as he allowed nine runs on 12 hits and two walks across four innings against the Giants. Despite having pitched against 28 teams in his career, Paxton has never pitched against Milwaukee.
Sunday, July 7 @ 3:10 p.m: Dallas Keuchel (0-0, 6.75 ERA, vs. Bobby Miller (1-1, 6.12 ERA, 5.56 FIP)
Like Paxton, Keuchel is a journeyman, now with his seventh team and fifth in three years. In two starts with Milwaukee, he’s allowed seven runs across 9 1⁄3 innings with nine strikeouts. He was solid last time out against the Rockies, allowing two runs on four hits and a pair of walks over 5 1⁄3 innings. Keuchel, who spent most of his career in the AL, has never faced the Dodgers.
The Dodgers have not yet announced a starter for the series finale, but Miller would be the starter if they follow their recent rotational schedule. Miller is having a rough sophomore season, though he’s only made six starts after missing a chunk of time due to injury. He looked solid against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, allowing two runs on four hits and three walks with four strikeouts across five innings. He’s faced Milwaukee once, allowing one run over six innings with four strikeouts in a win last season.
Prediction
The Brewers haven’t won a series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers since 2019, going 1-8 at Dodger Stadium during the regular season plus a two-game sweep at the hands of L.A. in the 2020 playoffs. That being said, this Brewers team seems better matched than in recent years. Still, I’ll take the Brewers to drop two of three before heading home to take on the Pirates and Nationals.