Even though it’s September, it’s the first time these two teams meet this season
In a strange quirk of the schedule, the Brewers will face an NL opponent for the first time this season in September. The Brewers and Diamondbacks are meeting for the first time this season and will play all seven of their games this season in the next 10 days.
It’s been almost a year since these two teams last faced off, but the last meeting was one to forget. It was in the NL Wild Card Series last year, where the Diamondbacks started their run to the World Series with a 2-0 series win in Milwaukee. Arizona is trying to get to the playoffs again, though their most likely path is through a wild card spot again. While they still have a chance in the NL West, they are five games behind the Dodgers. They currently hold the top wild card spot in the National League, but a series against the Padres (who currently hold the second spot) in the final weekend could cause some chaos in those standings.
The Diamondbacks have one of the strongest offenses in all of baseball. They are second in batting average (.263), first in on-base percentage (.336) and slugging percentage (.442), fourth in home runs (191), and second in wRC+ (115). They have been even stronger in the second half, leading the league in all of those categories. The lineup doesn’t have a hole in it. All of their regulars are above-average hitters at minimum (all over 100 in wRC+ and OPS+). In just the month of September, they’ve had double-digit runs in three of their 10 games and five or more runs in eight of them.
Leading the lineup is Ketel Marte, who just returned from the injured list after missing three weeks with an ankle injury. He leads the team with a .295 batting average and has the home run lead with 31. The Diamondbacks have four players (Marte, Christian Walker, Eugenio Suarez, and Joc Pederson) with 20-plus home runs and another two (Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corbin Carroll) with 10-plus home runs. Carroll and Jake McCarthy are stolen base threats, and both have stolen 20-plus bases this year. Carroll is one home run away from joining the 20-20 club this season.
The offense is relatively healthy, with just Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno on the IL. Gurriel Jr. is eligible to return and could return in this series, as his calf strain was not serious. Moreno still has some work to do with his left adductor strain but could be back by the end of the season, though likely not for this series.
The path to victory over the Diamondbacks may be through their pitching staff. Their 4.58 team ERA is 27th in baseball. FIP likes them a little more, with their 4.08 mark tied for 15th in the league. In the rotation, Zac Gallen is the only starter with an ERA under 4.00. However, the Brewers will have to go through two of their top starters in Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt in this series.
The bullpen has been stronger, and it got a major boost with the addition of A.J. Puk near the trade deadline. Puk has served as a late-inning reliever and has allowed just one run in 19 innings since joining the Diamondbacks. Justin Martinez (2.39 ERA) has moved into the closer role after a strong start to the season, recording eight saves over the last month and a half. He has struggled a bit recently though, allowing at least one run in five of his last eight appearances. The previous closer was Paul Sewald, but he’s had a rough season with a 4.31 ERA. In terms of fWAR, Kevin Ginkel (2.80 ERA) has been the top pitcher in the bullpen. He’s mainly worked as a late inning reliever as well. Ryan Thompson (3.20 ERA) and Joe Mantiply (3.59 ERA) are the other two main relievers out of the bullpen.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, September 13 @ 8:40 p.m: Freddy Peralta (3.81 ERA, 4.29 FIP) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (5.83 ERA, 4.85 FIP)
Following two scoreless starts to finish out August, Freddy Peralta had a couple of tough days to begin September. He’s allowed three earned runs in his last two starts, and his strikeout rate has dropped quite a bit. He’s had four or fewer strikeouts in five of his last six starts and has walked at least two batters in 10 straight starts. His last start against the Diamondbacks was not a memorable one. In game two of the NL Wild Card Series, he allowed four runs in five innings.
After missing two-thirds of the season with a shoulder strain, Eduardo Rodriguez is making his seventh start of the season on Friday. He signed a four-year, $80-million contract with the Diamondbacks in the offseason after spending two years with the Tigers. It’s been a rough return for him. He hasn’t pitched through the sixth inning yet, though he’s maxed out at 100 pitches. In his last start against the Astros, he allowed five runs (four earned) in four innings.
Saturday, September 14 @ 7:10 p.m: Tobias Myers (2.93 ERA, 4.10 FIP) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (4.42 ERA, 3.54 FIP)
Tobias Myers is coming off of a very good game his last time out against the Rockies. Over six innings, he allowed just one run (a solo home run) on four hits and one walk. He also recorded a career high 11 strikeouts in that game. He’s posted a 2.63 ERA and 3.99 FIP in the second half of the season, and while the results haven’t always been flashy, he’s been getting the job done in each start.
The Diamondbacks starters for games two and three of the series are familiar names for the Brewers. The first of those is Brandon Pfaadt, who started game one of the NL Wild Card Series against the Brewers last year. The Brewers did get to Pfaadt in that game, chasing him after only 2 2⁄3 innings by scoring three runs off of him. After a good first half of the season, the second half has not been as friendly to him. Over nine starts after the All-Star break, he has a 5.40 ERA. He started the second half with seven scoreless innings against the Cubs, but after that has been very hittable. He has allowed at least two runs in each of his last eight starts and has only posted one quality start in that stretch. His control is still good as the strikeout rate remains high and his walk rate is low, but he’s allowed at least seven hits in seven of his last eight starts.
Sunday, September 15 @ 3:10 p.m: DL Hall (4.01 ERA, 4.87 FIP) vs. Zac Gallen (3.55 ERA, 3.25 FIP)
The Brewers decided to go with a six-man rotation this time through it to give all of their starters an extra day off. DL Hall will move back into the rotation and make a start against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. After his seven-inning scoreless start against the Reds at the end of August, he’s made two long relief appearances. He pitched four scoreless innings against the Cardinals, and then 1 2⁄3 scoreless against the Giants on Monday. Hall should still be stretched out for several innings, though he’ll probably be capped around the 90-to-100 pitch mark.
Zac Gallen is also a familiar opponent for the Brewers. The last time they faced him was in game two of the NL Wild Card Series last year. After scoring two runs off of him in the first inning, Gallen allowed nothing else over six innings. He’s arguably been the Diamondbacks top pitcher this season, though he did miss almost all of June with a hamstring strain. He’s coming off of back-to-back scoreless starts against the Giants and Rangers. His strikeouts have been up as well, with at least seven in each of his last four starts.
Prediction
The Brewers will need a good balance of offense, defense, and pitching to take this series. The pitchers need to keep the Diamondbacks offense in check while the Brewers offense hopefully heats up. This series begins a test of the Brewers’ playoff readiness with 10 straight games against likely playoff teams. I think the Brewers could take the overall season series over the Diamondbacks, but their chances in this series don’t feel great. It will be very tough to win this one.