NL Wild Card Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets

The Brewers welcome the Mets back to town for the postseason

The Mets and Brewers seem to keep bumping into each other, and a wild doubleheader on the last day of the regular season ensured New York would be paying another visit for the NL Wild Card Series.

Milwaukee will host the Mets for the best-of-three series after winning five of six in the regular season matchup. Although the Brewers got the better of them in the regular season, this figures to be a much different challenge. The Mets posted a .597 winning percentage in the second half with a 40-27 record on their path to the postseason.

The Mets offense has been rolling with big-time performances from their star players in Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, along with recent callup Luisangel Acuña playing a role down the stretch. The numbers look good for the Mets, ranking ninth in wRC+, seventh in home runs, and 12th in runs scored over the last 30 days, per FanGraphs.

While the offense boasts a collection of impressive hitters, the pitching might prove an even bigger hurdle. Over the last 30 days, the Mets have a 3.00 ERA, the fifth-best mark in baseball. While the last-minute doubleheader taxed some of their pitching resources, the Mets are still lined up to use their high-end starters in Luis Severino and Sean Maneaea.

One of the Brewers’ biggest strengths represents one of the biggest contrasts with New York. The Milwaukee bullpen allowed a 2.14 ERA over the last month, the second-best in baseball, compared to a 3.70 ERA by the Mets, ranking 16th. In a short series, an elite bullpen can lock down the back-half of games if the Brewers can work through the tough starters.

Jackson Chourio was the most productive Brewer hitter over the last month, and he saw much of that same success in the season-long contest against the Mets. In 26 plate appearances, Chourio hit .360, bookending his rookie campaign at the start and finish of the regular season.

For the Brewers, they’ll get home-field advantage with their ace Freddy Peralta on the mound to kick off this postseason series. After an incredible season for the team, this is a fitting way to begin their playoff quest. Everything will be in place for a thrilling, entertaining NLWCS.

Probable Pitchers

Tuesday, October 1 @ 4:32 p.m: Freddy Peralta (3.68 ERA, 4.16 FIP) vs Luis Severino (3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP)

Peralta’s been twirling some gems during one of his best stretches of the season. Over the last eight games, Peralta has a 2.34 ERA, including five outings in which he gave up one or fewer earned runs. In that stretch, though, we’ve seen a slight downtick in strikeout rate and some issues with walks. He walked at least two batters in each of those starts. He’s been limiting hard contact especially well and using his curveball more. In his Opening Day matchup with New York, Peralta fired six innings while allowing just one run with eight strikeouts.

Severino’s resurgence not only led to a 3.91 ERA, but a Game 1 start in the postseason. In his first year with the Mets, Severino has been pitching much like his former self, but his last few weeks have been difficult while he faced playoff opponents. In his last two starts against the Phillies and the Braves, Severino pitched to a 5.63 ERA over 16 innings. He allowed four home runs in that time, an issue that hadn’t plagued him as much earlier in the season. While he doesn’t have elite strikeout numbers, he has a wipeout sweeper with a 38.6% whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. His strength as a pitcher this year was built on limiting hard contact and forcing groundballs.

Wednesday, October 2 @ 6:38 p.m: TBD vs. TBD

While there’s no official information on starters for his game, it looks like Tobias Myers could face Sean Manaea for this matchup. Myers would be well deserving of a playoff start after his stunning rookie season with Milwaukee. His last start of the season was a four-inning, shutout performance against the Mets while they were still desperate for every win in their playoff hunt. Myers has been taking on shorter workloads in September, mostly just pitching four innings, but exhibited the ability to work deep in games through much of the summer. Over his last 10 starts, Myers has a 2.86 ERA. The Mets were a top 10 offense by wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, so it will be interesting to see how they lineup here. Myers allowed just a .224 batting average to righties this year and .262 to lefties.

Manaea, at 32-years-old, just assembled one of his best seasons. His 3.47 ERA is a career-best mark and has a wide arsenal to attack hitters. His sweeper became his go-to secondary pitch, piling up 61 strikeouts with a 38.8% whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. While Manaea doesn’t have a standout trait in terms of strikeouts or contact quality metrics, his effectiveness on his fastball and primary breaking pitch have set him up for success.

Thursday, October 3 @ 7:38 p.m (if necessary): TBD vs. TBD

Prediction

The Brewers are well prepared for a short series. They at least match the Mets in quality of their starters in the first two games with an elite bullpen to back them up. I think the Brewers lineup, although prone to cold stretches at time, proved through the course of the season that it can create runs in any fashion. In the playoffs, it can sometimes be more difficult to scrape together rallies against the highest quality pitching, but the Brewers are more than capable of meeting the task. I’ll take the Brewers in three.