Multiple projections have the NL Central as the tightest division race, with all five teams expected to compete
Coming off another NL Central crown, the Brewers are once again among the most-doubted teams, as many pundits have picked the Cubs or even the Pirates or Reds to leapfrog the Crew. For the second straight offseason, the Brewers traded a key arm (Corbin Burnes before 2024, Devin Williams now) while also losing a key offensive player in Willy Adames. The Cubs added Kyle Tucker and several other veterans but lost Cody Bellinger, Isaac Paredes, and top prospect Cam Smith. The Pirates didn’t do much in terms of acquisitions, but they’ll have a full season of the three-headed monster of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones at the top of the rotation. The Cardinals didn’t do anything until adding a reliever literally two weeks ago. The Reds, for their part, probably improved the most, adding Brady Singer, Gavin Lux, Jose Trevino, and Taylor Rogers in trades while also signing Austin Hays, Wade Miley, and Scott Barlow. They also added Terry Francona, which may end up being the most valuable move of them all.
As a reminder, here’s how the NL Central shook out in 2024:
Milwaukee Brewers: 93-69
St. Louis Cardinals: 83-79 (10 GB)
Chicago Cubs: 83-79 (10 GB)
Cincinnati Reds: 77-85 (16 GB)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 76-86 (17 GB)
Here are our contributors’ NL Central standings predictions for 2025.
Paul Dietrich:
Milwaukee Brewers: 92-70
Chicago Cubs: 85-77 (7 GB)
Cincinnati Reds: 84-78 (8 GB)
St. Louis Cardinals: 82-80 (10 GB)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 78-84 (14 GB)
I don’t think there are any awful teams in this division, though things could go sideways in a hurry for the Pirates if one or two players get hurt. I’m still entranced with the talent the Reds have, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a bigger leap. I said this last season: I’m just not that impressed with the Cubs. Kyle Tucker is a beast and if he’s healthy all year he could be a legitimate MVP candidate, but who else did that 83-win team add? Tucker isn’t going to make that much of a difference. Ryan Pressly might help, but he’s also old and on the decline. Justin Turner is 40. Colin Rea isn’t a needle-mover. They subtracted Cody Bellinger, who was overpaid and maybe overrated but who is a good player.
I know the Brewers are someday probably going to pay for letting their best players leave without obvious replacements, but I still think they’re the best team in the division, and I think there’s a distinct possibility that they end the season better than last year, despite the losses of Willy Adames and Devin Williams.
Harrison Freuck:
Milwaukee Brewers: 90-72
Cincinnati Reds: 88-74 (2 GB)
Chicago Cubs: 86-76 (4 GB)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 83-79 (7 GB)
St. Louis Cardinals: 75-87 (15 GB)
The only thing I’m confident about at this point is that the Cardinals are not going to be good. You could easily make an argument for any of the other four teams in the division, but I’ll give the Brewers the upper hand just because they’ve proved they’re the team to beat over the last two seasons. I don’t think they’ll win as many games as they did either of those years, but I think they can fend off the Reds, Cubs, and Pirates for at least another season.
I’m putting the Reds ahead of the Cubs because they’re a more exciting team, one that competed for a good chunk of 2024 before injuries derailed them. As Paul said above, I don’t think the Cubs did enough to move the needle, and while I think the Pirates rotation is the strongest in the division, I don’t think their offense is good enough to support it.
Matt Gerrity:
Cincinnati Reds: 86-76
Chicago Cubs: 83-79 (3 GB)
Milwaukee Brewers: 80-82 (6 GB)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 79-83 (7 GB)
St. Louis Cardinals: 76-86 (10 GB)
I think this is the year the Reds accelerate. I bought in back in 2023 when Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz made their debuts. Hunter Greene also could be a top-tier ace if he continues where he left off. I waffled between the Cubs and Brewers for second place but ultimately went with Chicago. They might have a deeper offense and I’m not sure I trust the Brewers’ rotation enough.
Owen Jonas:
Milwaukee Brewers: 90-72
Chicago Cubs: 88-74 (2 GB)
Cincinnati Reds: 84-78 (6 GB)
St. Louis Cardinals: 77-85 (13 GB)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 70-92 (20 GB)
Sure, the Cubs might look like the best team in the division on paper. Sure, the Reds added one of the best managers of all time in Francona this offseason. But divisions aren’t won on paper or by managers, they are won by teams. They are won by organizations with a keen ability to execute a clear, direct strategy that has proven to be successful, and that’s what the Brewers have.
The alignment of manager Pat Murphy’s philosophy and GM Matt Arnold’s ability to find players that fit that philosophy is unique in today’s game, which leads to a constant underestimation of the Brewers’ ability. With an improved starting rotation, full seasons from Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell, a resurgent Rhys Hoskins who is now another year removed from his knee surgery, and year two of the Jackson Chourio show, the Brewers look primed to once again disprove the preseason underestimations and win the NL Central for the fifth time in the last eight years.
Jason Paczkowski:
Milwaukee Brewers: 87-75
Chicago Cubs: 86-76 (1 GB)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 81-81 (6 GB)
Cincinnati Reds: 76-86 (11 GB)
St. Louis Cardinals: 70-92 (17 GB)
I don’t remember the last time that preseason projections put the Brewers as the projected winner of the NL Central. Looking through this year’s projections, it appears to be more of the same. It’s always understandable why the projections are down.
The Brewers lost Willy Adames and Devin Williams from last year’s team, and the biggest additions were Nestor Cortes and José Quintana. Preseason predictions tend to favor the teams who made the more notable moves. However, the division hasn’t changed that much from last year. It’s still a two-team race, though the Pirates are starting to concern me a little more. The Cubs are going to be a threat again, and I am very tempted to pick them to win the division. However, I’m not ready to pick against the Brewers just yet.
Adam Zimmer:
Milwaukee Brewers: 90-72
Chicago Cubs: 88-74 (2 GB)
Cincinnati Reds: 81-81 (9 GB)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 77-85 (13 GB)
St. Louis Cardinals: 74-88 (16 GB)
The Brewers have won more than 90 games each of the last two years, and they’re not going to be much worse this year. I do think Milwaukee got a little worse this offseason with the departures of Adames and Williams. I also think there was a reason Milwaukee was rather apathetic about making moves to replace them. The Brewers know they’re going to be deep enough to compete anyway. Not enough has changed in the division for me to bet against the two-time defending division champions.
The Cubs, who won 83 games last year, loaded up on talent in the offseason. If the Brewers don’t win the NL Central, it’ll be them – partially because they’re a well-rounded team and partially because the Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals probably won’t be a real threat. All three teams are rebuilding, with various levels of success. Francona will single-handedly get the Reds to .500. Skenes won’t be able to do the same for the Pirates, but will ensure they at least win more than the Cardinals. St Louis isn’t really trying to win anything this year, but it still gives me pleasure to rank them last.