Where do the Brewers stack up against their division foes?
The Milwaukee Brewers still have some questions, but what about the rotation? This group looks a lot different than it did a few years ago. If there’s any uncertainty about the lineup being an elite group, will the rotation be able to carry the load?
The Brewers will aim for yet another division title, but as teams throughout the NL Central reinforce their own pitching staffs, will there be a comparative advantage in that area for Milwaukee?
Despite the Brewers cruising to the finish line a year ago, their rotation might not stand far above their NL Central opponents. Milwaukee actually is projected to finish third in starting pitcher fWAR among teams in the division, according to FanGraphs, behind the Pirates and Reds. The Cardinals and Cubs both come up just behind Milwaukee.
Freddy Peralta should be an ace again, but there are enough question marks behind him to raise some concern. Will Tobias Myers repeat his incredible season? Brandon Woodruff is returning from a serious injury — can he stay healthy? Aaron Civale was solid as a Brewer, but not stellar. Is that enough?
Will Nestor Cortes’ addition be enough to fortify the group? Will there be enough growth from youngsters like Aaron Ashby and DL Hall who were most effective out of the bullpen?
In an ideal world, the best outcome here might be to see a player like Ashby or Hall taking his dominant, strikeout stuff to a starter’s role to really buff up the rotation. But that still might not be enough to make the Brewers’ pitching group the best in the division.
The Pittsburgh Pirates boast Paul Skenes to lead their staff, a Cy Young finalist in his rookie season. He’s backed up by solid arms like Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. It’s not hard to envision that group beating out any other trio in the division.
The Cincinnati Reds are just as much of a threat. Hunter Greene had a career-best season with a 2.75 ERA. The Reds’ rotation is bubbling over with young arms like Rhett Lowder, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo. Add to that a veteran pair of starters in Nick Martinez and Brady Singer, and there isn’t a clear advantage here for Milwaukee.
The Cubs have a solid group assembled, as well. Players like Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele are capable of being co-aces for a team. There aren’t many mismatches against these other competitors in the division.
The Brewers have found so much success in recent years from their pitching, but a lot of that has come just as much from the bullpen as from the rotation. After a year that required a heavy workload from the bullpen and constant shifting in the starting rotation, will the Brewers find a group that’s capable of leading the team to another division championship?
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.