Game Thread #162: Milwaukee Brewers (93-68) vs. New York Mets (87-72)

A review of postseason scenarios as the regular season comes to a close

The Milwaukee Brewers have reached the last day of the 2024 regular season. (At least, for them.) Last night, this surprising club surpassed last season’s victory total, even though they have been essentially locked into the National League’s three seed for the past two weeks.

It’s especially surprising since their opponent this weekend, the New York Mets, are playing for their playoff lives. With New York dropping (at least) two of three against the Brewers this weekend, they’ve fallen behind the Atlanta Braves and are now in a virtual tie with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hurricane Helene also threw a little extra sprinkle of chaos in here, as the Mets and Braves were only able to complete one of three games they had scheduled this past week, which leaves their season tiebreaker—and potentially the seeding at the bottom of the NL playoff bracket—in flux. Those games are scheduled to be made up in a doubleheader on Monday, an especially cruel twist for two teams who are surely running on fumes already.

Here’s a quick review of the potential playoff scenarios. Remember that the Brewers will host the #6 seed at home in the Wild Card round.

• Atlanta and New York both hold tiebreakers over Arizona, so if the Diamondbacks lose, they’re out, and Milwaukee will play either Atlanta or New York.
• Arizona cannot clinch a postseason spot today, but a win guarantees their survival until at least tomorrow.
• The tiebreaker between Atlanta and New York hasn’t yet been determined; if Atlanta wins either game of Monday’s doubleheader, they’ll hold it, but if New York sweeps the doubleheader, it’ll be theirs.
• In the scenario that New York sweeps the doubleheader, they’ll be the #5 seed regardless of all other results.
• If Atlanta wins two of their remaining three games (regardless of which), they are the #5 seed.
• The only scenario in which Atlanta doesn’t make the postseason is if Arizona wins today and the Braves lose all three of their remaining games.
• New York must win one more game than Arizona to clinch a postseason spot. So that’s two wins if Arizona wins today, or one win if Arizona loses.

Clear as mud!

It seems that most Brewers fans want to play the Mets and avoid the Diamondbacks. If that’s the scenario you’re hoping for, here’s the safest route: Arizona loses, New York wins, and then the Mets win the first but lose the second on Monday. That seems the scenario that would match Milwaukee up with the Mets but would require them to keep trying in the second game of tomorrow’s double header (assuming the Mets care about being the #5 seed, which is not a safe assumption), and Atlanta’s result today has no bearing on that outcome.

If you’re a maximum chaos person willing to flirt with the danger presented by the defending NL champs, you’d cheer for an Arizona win today and an Atlanta loss today, which would keep the pressure on both Atlanta and New York tomorrow, as that’s the only scenario in which the Mets and Braves are both still playing for a spot in the postseason on Monday, thus maximizing the amount of effort (and number of top bullpen arms) both teams would need to put forth.

The real answer here, of course, is the Brewers should just focus on themselves, Wild Card opponent be damned. Baseball is a funny game, and trying to predict how matchups will end up is probably a fool’s errand. I’ve laid it out as clearly as I could for you. It’s still very convoluted. Let’s just have a good last day of the season, allow ourselves to appreciate this team and its accomplishments, and start thinking about the postseason tomorrow. And please, no one else crash into a wall at full speed.

It’s been a fun season, everybody. First pitch at 2:10 p.m. on Bally Sports Wisconsin and the Brewers Radio Network.