How does the staff compare to other contenders?
The Brewers are in a strange place. They are clearly a good team, and likely to make the playoffs, but how do they compare to other contenders?
The pitching is an especially mysterious affair at the moment. As the offense has seen standout performances from players like Jackson Chourio lately, the rotation doesn’t match the star power of some other contenders. That doesn’t mean the Brewers can’t win with this group, but it appears to be a comparable weakness in the playoffs, especially compared to rotations we’ve seen in recent seasons out of Milwaukee.
The Brewers can’t match a team like the Dodgers who, when healthy, have players like Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Clayton Kershaw heading the rotation. Over in the American League, a team like the Mariners boasts Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert. Both teams have reserves of young starters capable of pitching in the playoffs, as well.
So, let’s look at the Brewers’ own division. How do they compare to their primary rival in this division fight, the Cardinals? Sonny Gray is their standout ace, similar to what the Brewers have in Freddy Peralta, even if Peralta hasn’t pitched to form all season. But the next tier of starters isn’t very convincing.
Kyle Gibson (3.99 ERA), Miles Mikolas (5.12 ERA), and trade acquisition Erick Fedde (3.28 ERA) are all credible starters, but they don’t exactly scream “World Series.” Is the Brewers rotation actually much better?
The Brewers have received fantastic, unexpected results from Tobias Myers (3.02 ERA) and Colin Rea (3.38 ERA). The Brewers will have to rely on that unexpected performance to make the playoffs, but they’ll really need reliability once the postseason begins. Is it reasonable to expect that same level of production? Both players are outperforming their expected ERAs by over a run.
Of course, the Brewers two new additions, Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale, could play into this conversation. Will either make their mark to be a starter in a playoff game, or will one head to the bullpen? As Paul Dietrich said about the team’s upcoming stretch, the early returns haven’t been inspiring from those two.
There is another contender that would for a thrilling matchup. The Atlanta Braves, who currently sit outside of the three wild card spots, could have had one of the most dominant rotations in baseball this year, but even in the absence of players like Spencer Strider, there is a dangerous aura to this group.
Reynaldo Lopez has been a shutdown pitcher this year with a 2.06 ERA, but he recently landed on the injured list. Max Fried is another who has dealt with injuries but would certainly draw attention as the starter in a playoff game. Chris Sale looks like vintage Chris Sale, even if he wasn’t great against Milwaukee last time out. And perhaps most intriguing is the breakout of Spencer Schwellenbach, a 24-year-old righty with some of the best metrics in baseball by whiff rate, walk rate, and barrel rate.
The Brewers would be well-matched in a series like that, so how will the Brewers derive their advantage on the mound?
Milwaukee has notoriously used well, um, a lot of starting pitchers this year. Collectively, the group hasn’t excelled in many areas. The starting pitchers’ 4.17 ERA ranks 18th in baseball, along with lackluster groundball rates, barrel rates, and strikeout rates.
The team is trending in a positive direction despite the mediocre season-long numbers. Over the past 30 days, the Brewers’ starters have a 3.81 ERA, which ranks ninth. This Brewers corps might not be the stellar, dominant version it was when Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff headed the rotation. But the team finds ways to win with good defense, unexpected staples in the rotation, and a balanced offensive attack.
If Peralta is able to work through some of his recent inconsistencies, the Brewers will be able to match with many of the other playoff contenders. His presence at the top of the rotation would be vital for setting the stage for the rest of the series. Myers and Rea don’t exactly have the same ring as players like Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Kershaw, but no one expected those two to perform to this level in the first place.