Last year’s projections underestimated the Brewers
Dan Szymborski’s 2025 ZiPS projections for the Milwaukee Brewers are live on FanGraphs as of Monday afternoon! The Brewers are an interesting team to project, with so much young talent on the roster, so let’s dig into what Szymborski’s projections show for 2025.
First, let’s take a quick look back into 2024 to get an idea of how these projections did. I’m not going to go super deep into this so there are a few prominent names missing (mostly people who were injured at the beginning of last year), but very quickly: in general, here are how the ZiPS projections did with Brewers in 2024, with their ZiPS projected WAR listed first and actual fWAR listed after the backslash:
Player outperformed projection (11 total, net 9.4 WAR): Willy Adames (4.1/4.8), William Contreras (3.5/5.4), Jackson Chourio (2.0/3.9), Christian Yelich (2.0/3.0), Joey Ortiz (1.7/3.1), Brice Turang (1.5/2.5), Blake Perkins (1.1/1.6), Joe Ross (0.4/0.9), Bryan Hudson (0.5/0.7), Joel Payamps (0.4/0.6), Hoby Milner (0.3/0.9, though his bWAR was -0.6)
About the same (3 total, net 0.1 WAR): Elvis Peguero (0.1/0.2), Trevor Megill (0.9/1.0), Jake Bauers (0.1/0)
Underperformed (7 total, net -5.5 WAR): Freddy Peralta (2.8/2.3), Sal Frelick (2.0/1.5), Colin Rea (1.4/0.9), Bryse Wilson (0.8/-0.2), Thyago Vieira (0.1/-0.3), Gary Sánchez (1.6/0.3), Rhys Hoskins (1.4/0.1)
I won’t count because of injuries: Abner Uribe (0.3/0), Robert Gasser (1.8/0.7), Oliver Dunn (0.9/0.1)
So, you can see that in general, the projection systems were too low on the Brewers last season; of the players listed here, players outperformed projections by a net 4 WAR. I understand to a degree: the Brewers, with so many young players, are more difficult to project. Still, keep this in mind when looking at this year’s projections: these numbers tend to be on the conservative side, and last year that meant that a lot of Brewers did better than ZiPS expected.
On to this year’s projections.
Catchers
William Contreras: 4.2 WAR, 122 OPS+, .270/.353/.450, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 28 2B, 6 SB
Eric Haase: 0.5 WAR, 81 OPS+, .219/.274/.386, 12 HR, 43 RBI, 9 2B, 1 SB
(Presumably because he was injured in 2024, Jeferson Quero did not get a projection)
This would be a slight step back for Contreras, who had a 129 OPS+, 23 homers, and 37 doubles in 2024, but he also played in 155 games, and banking on that kind of health again in 2025 might be somewhat foolish. Even still, Contreras will be 27 next season, when many players reach their prime.
Haase’s projection suggests that he’ll have pop; his .167 ISO trails only Contreras, Rhys Hoskins, and Jackson Chourio among players expected to be on the opening day roster. In very limited duty last season, Haase hit .273/.304/.515 (a 122 OPS+) and was even better offensively at Nashville, so I’d expect him to perform better than his projected 81 OPS+, even if he isn’t as good as he was last year. Haase had an OPS+ of 108 in back-to-back seasons with over 350 plate appearances in ’21 and ’22. This is a case where the system fails itself a bit, as Haase’s brutally bad 2023 season—which really looks like an outlier at this point—likely weighs down the projection quite a bit.
Infielders
Brice Turang: 2.5 WAR, .254/.316/.360, 88 OPS+, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 23 2B, 36 SB
Joey Ortiz: 2.0 WAR, .250/.320/.402, 100 OPS+, 11 HR, 61 RBI, 27 2B, 9 SB
Vinny Capra: 1.4 WAR, .246/.320/.357, 89 OPS+, 6 HR, 43 RBI, 20 2B, 6 SB
Luke Adams: 1.4 WAR, .175/.339/.310, 84 OPS+, 11 HR, 63 RBI, 12 2B, 14 SB
Caleb Durbin: 1.2 WAR, .236/.321/.361, 90 OPS+, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 20 2B, 20 SB
Mike Boeve: 1.2 WAR, .265/.331/.374, 97 OPS+, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 14 2B, 1 SB
Tyler Black: 1.1 WAR, .230/.329/.377, 97 OPS+, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 17 2B, 18 SB
Andruw Monasterio: 1.0 WAR, .240/.323/.339, 85 OPS+, 5 HR, 37 RBI, 16 2B, 12 SB
Oliver Dunn: 1.0 WAR, .207/.293/.342, 77 OPS+, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 14 2B, 7 SB
Rhys Hoskins: 1.0 WAR, .222/.314/.431, 105 OPS+, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 22 2B, 2 SB
Cooper Pratt: 1.0 WAR, .220/.283/.313, 66 OPS+, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 12 2B, 13 SB
This projection would put Turang right where he finished last year in terms of fWAR (his bWAR, which calculates defense and baserunning differently, was 4.7). This projection has a modest offensive improvement of 11 points of OPS over last season (and three points of OPS+). Joey Ortiz is projected to be roughly the same offensively as he was last season with, presumably, a step back defensively. That seems unlikely to me if Ortiz is the everyday shortstop, which seems the likeliest outcome at this point in the offseason.
The ZiPS system clearly has no idea what to do about the Brewer third baseman, which is, I presume, why we have such prominent projections for a handful of minor leaguers, most of whom are unlikely to see much time in the majors (Capra, Adams, Durbin, Boeve, Pratt and, depending on where you think he will end up playing, Black). My guess is none of these guys lead the Brewers in appearances at third base. This is a surprisingly rosy projection for Capra. Durbin is interesting; a solid OBP keeps his OPS+ at a somewhat-respectable 90, but if he’s hitting .236, he’s going to have trouble. Boeve is an intriguing prospect who hit .306/.374/.447 in 66 games at Double-A Biloxi last season; he’ll be 23 in 2025 and if he tears it up in spring training, he could have a shot at making the major league roster, but I’d be pretty shocked if he was with the team on opening day. Luke Adams will not be on the major league roster next season; he has not played above High-A Wisconsin, and he hit only .227 there (though he walks a ton and has some pop — take a peak at that crazy expected line).
Hoskins’ offensive numbers here are barely improved over last season’s; I’m optimistic that the Brewers will get more out of him than that.
Outfielders
Jackson Chourio: 2.6 WAR, .268/.318/.438, 108 OPS+, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 29 2B, 27 SB
Christian Yelich: 2.3 WAR, .264/.362/.426, 119 OPS+, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 20 2B, 20 SB
Sal Frelick: 2.2 WAR, .273/.333/.379, 98 OPS+, 6 HR, 52 RBI, 24 2B, 16 SB
Garrett Mitchell: 1.6 WAR, .250/.329/.415, 106 OPS+, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 14 2B, 14 SB
Blake Perkins: 1.4 WAR, .225/.308/.341, 81 OPS+, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 16 2B, 16 SB
Isaac Collins: 1.1 WAR, .225/.317/.358, 88 OPS+, 9 HR, 52 RBI, 20 2B, 16 SB
Brewer Hicklen: 0.9 WAR, .210/.300/.392, 91 OPS+, 17 HR, 70 RBI, 18 2B, 24 SB
This relatively low projection for Chourio will annoy many readers. His full-season OPS last year was .791 (compared to .756 in this projection), and that’s after he started badly and had an OPS of .588 after his 54th game played on June 7; from then until the end of the season, nearly four full months, his OPS was .888. I get being conservative in your projections, but I don’t think anyone will be surprised if Chourio blows this one away.
Yelich wasn’t far off from his 2024 projection in terms of WAR, but his rate stats far outpaced what ZiPS expected of him last season. I’d expect that again here; Yelich finished last season with an OPS+ of 151, but he played in just 73 games. That’s another one where, if he’s healthy, Yelich could make it look dumb.
ZiPS continues to be high on Frelick. He was one of the players who didn’t reach his 2024 projection (2.0 WAR in the projection, 1.5 in reality), and honestly, after what we saw last season, I think most people would be pretty stoked with a 98 OPS+ from him. ZiPS somewhat wisely seems to think Mitchell will again not be able to stay on the field. Perkins seems about right, though he was a little better than that offensively last season.
Starting Pitchers
Nestor Cortes: 2.6 WAR, 153 IP, 152 K, 38 BB, 3.54 ERA, 117 ERA+, 3.70 FIP
Freddy Peralta: 2.3 WAR, 160 IP, 180 K, 61 BB, 3.76 ERA, 110 ERA+, 3.93 FIP
Tobias Myers: 1.5 WAR, 134 IP, 123 K, 42 BB, 4.02 ERA, 103 ERA+, 4.24 FIP
Brandon Woodruff: 1.4 WAR, 81 IP, 93 K, 24 BB, 3.44 ERA, 120 ERA+, 3.65 FIP
Thomas Pannone: 1.4 WAR, 124 IP, 98 K, 28 BB, 4.14 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.15 FIP
Robert Gasser: 1.2 WAR, 95 IP, 89 K, 28 BB, 3.97 ERA, 105 ERA+, 3.98 FIP
Aaron Civale: 1.2 WAR 137 IP, 124 K, 42 BB, 4.28 ERA, 97 ERA+, 4.51 FIP
K.C. Hunt: 1.1 WAR, 91 IP, 90 K, 27 BB, 3.87 ERA, 107 ERA+, 3.91 FIP
Aaron Ashby: 0.9 WAR, 103 IP, 102 K, 55 BB, 4.19 ERA, 99 ERA+, 4.24 FIP
Chad Patrick: 0.9 WAR, 115 IP, 99 K, 37 BB, 4.45 ERA, 93 ERA+, 4.47 FIP
Connor Thomas: 0.8 WAR, 98 IP, 70 K, 26 BB, 4.12 ERA, 101 ERA+, 4.15 FIP
Bruce Zimmerman: 0.8 WAR, 90 IP, 80 K, 26 BB, 4.28 ERA, 97 ERA+, 4.38 FIP
Colin Rea*: 0.7 WAR, 137 IP, 110 K, 37 BB, 4.60 ERA, 90 ERA+, 4.72 FIP
Wade Miley*: 0.7 WAR 85 IP, 55 K, 31 BB, 4.34 ERA, 96 ERA+, 4.73 FIP
Logan Henderson: 0.7 WAR, 87 IP, 88 K, 26 BB, 4.34 ERA, 95 ERA+, 4.40 FIP
Carlos Rodriguez: 0.7 WAR, 128 IP, 115 K, 51 BB, 4.58 ERA, 91 ERA+, 4.62 FIP
Jacob Misiorowski: 0 WAR, 84 IP, 88 K, 48 BB, 4.95 ERA, 84 ERA+, 5.23 FIP
You’ll notice that almost all of the pitchers listed, both starters and relievers, have an ERA lower than their FIP, which is probably wise, and a testament to the Brewers’ excellent defense. Some of the guys here aren’t even on the Brewers’ 40-man roster, and a couple—Rea and Miley—are free agents, I just thought I’d list them because FanGraphs did.
The big thing to note here is probably Cortes: the season listed above would be a very solid one. I think it has been lost a bit in the wake of the Devin Williams trade, for various reasons, that a healthy Cortes is a good player who could easily end up being the most valuable pitcher on this staff.
Peralta’s projection is about in line with what he did last season, and really what he’s done each of the last three years. It is a very slight step back, but as he enters his age-29 season, it seems reasonable to believe that the pitcher he was from 26-28 is about the pitcher he will be.
ZiPS is optimistic about Woodruff’s results; that makes a lot of sense, as Woodruff has been an outstanding pitcher in every season in which he has made more than 10 starts. Of course, we don’t have any idea what sort of shape he’ll be in, which is reflected in his low innings projection; whether the two years of injuries negatively affect his results remains to be seen.
Myers’ projection is pretty solid, too—those numbers would make him a valuable innings eater. I’m a little surprised by that, as Myers had some red flags in his Statcast profile last season and seems like a regression candidate. A 103 ERA+ in 134 innings would be a regression of sorts, but he’d still be a valuable player with those results.
There are a couple of unfamiliar names here: K.C. Hunt is listed on MLB Pipeline as the Brewers’ No. 30 prospect, an undrafted free agent who pitched very well across three levels (as high as Double-A Biloxi) in 2024. Thomas Pannone is on a minor league deal and will be 31 in 2025. He pitched two innings for the Brewers in 2023 and a handful of innings earlier in his career with Toronto. This surprisingly optimistic projection is likely based on the great numbers he put up in the Yankees’ minor league system last season (a 2.34 ERA in 61 2⁄3 innings), at Triple-A Nashville in 2023 (yes, this is his second stint as a Brewer minor leaguer), and in Korea in 2022. But it should be noted that he has less encouraging results in Korea in 2023 and in the Cubs’ system in 2024, so it’s very difficult to know what you’d get from him. Regardless, Pannone is not on the Brewers’ 40-man roster as of now.
Relief Pitchers
Jared Koenig: 0.9 WAR, 80 IP, 75 K, 30 BB, 3.92 ERA, 106 ERA+, 4.04 FIP
Bryan Hudson: 0.8 WAR, 64 IP, 69 K, 23 BB, 3.52 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.66 FIP
DL Hall: 0.8 WAR, 78 IP, 84 K, 37 BB, 4.14 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.14 FIP
Trevor Megill: 0.6 WAR, 42 IP, 51 K, 15 BB, 3.40 ERA, 122 ERA+, 3.44 FIP
Joel Payamps: 0.6 WAR, 59 IP, 58 K, 20 BB, 3.51 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.92 FIP
Elvis Peguero: 0.4 WAR, 59 IP, 55 K, 24 BB, 3.81 ERA, 109 ERA+, 3.79 FIP
Abner Uribe: 0.3 WAR, 46 IP, 55 K, 28 BB, 3.69 ERA, 112 ERA+, 3.93 FIP
Craig Yoho: 0.3 WAR, 55 IP, 64 K, 22 BB, 3.76 ERA, 110 ERA+, 3.98 FIP
Nick Mears: 0.2 WAR, 49 IP, 61 K, 24 BB, 3.86 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.55 FIP
J.B. Bukauskas: 0.2 WAR, 37 IP, 34 K, 10 BB, 3.86 ERA, 108 ERA+, 4.06 FIP
Grant Wolfram: 0 WAR, 54 IP, 53 K, 26 BB, 4.47 ERA, 93 ERA+, 4.45 FIP
Grant Anderson: -0.2 WAR, 55 IP, 57 K, 22 BB, 4.55 ERA, 4.82 FIP
I will say two quick things about these reliever projections. First: it is very difficult to project relievers. Second: there is absolutely zero chance that the Brewers don’t have a single reliever with an ERA+ over 122. Last season, nine Brewer relievers (Megill, Koenig, Payamps, Peguero, Hudson, Ashby, Junis, Williams, and Paredes) had an ERA+ over 122 with at least 20 innings pitched.