Will the Brewers’ ace be in contention for the prestigious award?
The Milwaukee Brewers have an ace in Freddy Peralta, but what’s his ceiling this upcoming season? There’s no doubt that Peralta is “the guy” in this rotation, but will he spearhead this group with his best individual season?
He’s still a strikeout threat, but there are some other trends that Peralta will have to defy if he wants to cement himself at the top of the league this season. After a career-best 2021 season in which he posted a 2.81 ERA, Peralta has struggled to reach that same level. His xERA in that time has risen each season from 2.66 to 3.88 in 2024. That’s a fine number, but not the output one would expect if Peralta was to put together a dominant, Cy Young-caliber season.
At times, we’ve seen some of Peralta’s profile become more inconsistent. This past year was the highest walk rate he had allowed in four years. He’s also surrendered more home runs per nine innings these past two seasons than he did in 2020-22.
By Stuff+, Peralta has an excellent fastball (112). But his other pitches don’t stand out as much. His curveball (104) is slightly above average, but his slider (98) and changeup (84) weren’t elite options. If Peralta is going to represent himself in that top tier of pitchers, he’ll need more consistency to make up for those subpar pitches. It’s not an unworkable situation, so a few tweaks could make a significant difference in his production.
There were 13 pitchers in the National League last season to receive a Cy Young vote, and Peralta wasn’t among them.
Part of why Peralta stood out in 2021-22 was his ability to limit hard contact. He allowed a 6% barrel rate and a 3.5% barrel rate in those two seasons, respectively. Last year, that number was up to 8.7%.
This could be one area where Peralta regains some ground in this race. Over his last 10 starts in the regular season, he limited hitters to a 7.6% barrel rate. If he is sharper with his secondary pitches, Peralta will be a more consistent, dominant pitcher. For example, his slider last year limited batters to a .203 batting average with a 41% whiff rate yet still had a -3-run value over the course of the season. There’s clearly the potential for this to be not just a strikeout pitch, so his secondary pitches here will play a large part in his success behind his elite fastball.
There’s some serious competition for this award in the NL, but Peralta has the tools to be an imposing force throughout the season. The best-case scenario for the Brewers this season involves a heavy dose of Peralta at his best. Will he be able to make a run for some personal awards too?
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.