The lefty has a reputation as a Brewer killer
It’s March, but the Brewers have made their biggest free agent splash of the offseason. According to Robert Murray, left-hander Jose Quintana has signed a one-year deal that’s worth in the $4-5 million range. Quintana, who turned 36 in January, pitched for the Mets the last two seasons and has a long history against the Brewers.
In 2024, Quintana was a member of the New York Mets’ rotation and was the textbook definition of “reliable and unremarkable.” He made 31 starts and threw 170 1⁄3 innings, which was 18th in the National League and more than every Brewer not named Freddy Peralta. In those 31 starts, Quintana struck out 135 batters (7.1 per nine) and walked 63 (3.3 per nine) while pitching to a 3.75 ERA (105 ERA+) and 4.56 FIP. According to Baseball Reference, Quintana earned 2.5 WAR, though FanGraphs—more skeptical of his underlying numbers—only credited him with 1.0 WAR. The catch here, though, is that Quintana struggled in May and early June before turning it on; from June 15 until the end of the season, Quintana had a 2.77 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 18 starts.
There is some cause for concern when combining the declining strikeouts and climbing walks numbers with his less-than-stellar Statcast page. Quintana managed to have an effective fastball despite it averaging only 90.7 mph, due in large part to a solid ground ball rate (79th percentile, according to Statcast). But his below-average strikeout numbers (just the 18th percentile in K%) set off alarm bells, and Quintana’s expected ERA and batting average against were both in the bottom quarter of the league.
Still, Quintana has had a long, effective career, and there could be some “crafty veteran lefty” stuff going on here. He first reached the majors back in 2012 with the White Sox, and he averaged 4.4 bWAR between 2013 and 2016, making an All-Star team in the last of those years. He went through a few rough-ish seasons in the late 2010s and early 2020s but reemerged as a solid presence in 2022 when he had a 2.93 ERA and 2.99 FIP and led the majors in HR/9 in 165.2 innings. He battled injuries in 2023 and only pitched 75 2⁄3 innings, but he was effective when on the field, and he followed that up with his solid 2024 season.
The extra twist here is that the lore around Quintana is that he is a longtime Brewer nemesis. In reality, this hasn’t been as true in recent years, but it is absolutely true that from 2012-18, Quintana had the Brewers’ number. In 11 starts in those seasons—most of which came in 2018 with the Cubs—Quintana went 6-2 and allowed just 13 runs in 72 1⁄3 innings, which works out to to sparkling 1.61 ERA; in 2018 alone, Quintana was 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA in seven starts as the Brewers and Cubs battled for the Central Division crown.
That magic did wear off a bit in 2019, when he struggled in six starts, and in 12 appearances since the end of the 2018 season Quintana hasn’t been nearly as effective against Milwaukee. But it was Quintana who was on the mound in the ill-fated third game of last year’s Wild Card series; he was not the winning pitcher in that game, of course, but he threw six innings and allowed no runs on just four hits and a walk.
The Brewers have long gotten by on hunting for late-offseason bargains in the free agent market. This is later than usual, and last year had two prominent instances of pitchers who waited until very late to sign and started the year struggling badly. But for the money, it’s not much of a gamble for the Brewers, and Quintana will be expected to slot in with Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Tobias Myers, and Aaron Civale for a spot in the starting rotation, at least as we await word on when Brandon Woodruff might be ready.
This is a move that may not have been made without the injury to DL Hall (who could still be ready for Opening Day), and it might make things a bit murkier for Aaron Ashby. But last year’s Brewers showed us that there will certainly be a role for the sixth (and seventh and eighth) starter on the depth chart, and Quintana will only increase that depth for this team. Plus, the potential move of Ashby and/or Hall to a more secure bullpen role could strengthen that group, perhaps significantly, as Ashby in particular briefly excelled out of the bullpen at the end of last season.
The Brewers have not yet made the signing official, but with a full 40-man roster, they’ll have to make a corresponding move to add Quintana. We’ll see just what that is in the coming days.