The Cubs continue to set the bar for the rest of the division, but the gap is closing
Welcome to the fourth week of our NL Central Power Rankings! We’ll release these rankings each week to grade all five teams and place them one through five. As everyone knows with power rankings, these should be taken as gospel and they’re obviously 100% accurate. Without further ado, let’s rank some teams!
1. Chicago Cubs (13-9); 92.7% chance to make postseason (Baseball Reference)
The Cubs still look like the cream of the crop in the Central, as they enjoyed a solid 3-3 record against the Dodgers and Padres out West this week, not too shabby considering those are looking like the top two teams in the NL (and maybe in MLB) at this point. They then followed that up with a wild win over the D-backs on Friday afternoon.
Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki are still the leaders of the offense, though Pete Crow-Armstrong had a great week as he finally looked like the prospect Cubs fans were talking about the last few years. Carson Kelly is playing out of this world as he actually leads the team in bWAR (1.5) despite only playing in 11 games as he’s hitting .419/.578/1.097 with six homers, 18 RBIs, 12 runs, and 12 walks with only four strikeouts.
With Justin Steele now out for the season, the Cubs’ pitching staff is now the biggest concern. Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd are both capable starting arms, but the guys behind them are a little more shaky. The bullpen continues to struggle, as displayed by the meltdown that nearly cost them on Friday, but as long as you’re winning games, who cares?
2. Milwaukee Brewers (11-9); 61.0% chance to make postseason
The Brewers bounced back from a disappointing weekend against the Diamondbacks in which they blew a lead on back-to-back days with a solid start to their homestand, winning of two of three against the Tigers before taking the series opener against the A’s.
Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick all look to be making a case for an All-Star selection. Chourio just took his second walk of the year on Friday night, finally displaying the patience I think we’ve all been waiting for. Turang and Frelick are both still hitting over .300, and Frelick finally displayed some pop this week as he hit his first homer of the year.
After so many injuries to begin the year, Freddy Peralta, Jose Quintana, Chad Patrick, and Quinn Priester have looked like a solid start to a rotation in recent weeks. With Tobias Myers and Brandon Woodruff both nearing returns, I still feel confident that a .500 team at the end of April is a good start to the year.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (9-11); 7.0% chance to make postseason
The Cardinals have looked pretty good against some stiff competition this week, taking two of three against both the Phillies and Astros before heading to Queens to take on the Mets, where they’ve lost the first two of a four-game set. I continue to flip them and the Reds in these rankings because I’m still not sure which team is honestly better.
Brendan Donovan is off to a fast start, hitting .380/.412/.570 with a league-best 30 hits in 20 games. Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II have both fallen back to earth after hot starts, and Willson Contreras continues to struggle as he’s hitting .145/.198/.237 through 19 games. Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar are also providing some offense for the Redbirds as veterans on the squad.
After a few years of struggles, the Cardinals’ rotation has looked pretty good so far this season, as Sonny Gray, Andre Pallante, Erick Fedde, and Matthew Liberatore all have ERAs in the 3.00-4.00 range at this point. The bullpen combo of Phil Maton, Kyle Leahy, and Ryan Helsley also looks about as good as any.
4. Cincinnati Reds (10-10); 13.7% chance to make postseason
The Reds had a nice weekend sweep of the Pirates but dropped two of three to the Mariners this week before winning their series opener against the Orioles.
The offense continues to be a struggle, but Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain remain the clear leaders. Gavin Lux is also enjoying a nice first year with Cincinnati, hitting .290/.371/.355 through 19 games.
Pitching-wise, I’d still argue this is the best team in the NL Central. Hunter Greene is making a clear case for Cy Young, with a sterling 0.98 ERA and 1.69 FIP through 27 2⁄3 innings with 31 strikeouts. Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott have also looked great, while Graham Ashcraft, Tony Santillan, and Emilio Pagán are looking about as good as the Cardinals’ bullpen trio.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (8-13); 0.4% chance to make postseason
After a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Reds, the Pirates bounced back to take three of four from the Nationals at home this week, allowing just seven runs across the series as their pitching truly shined for the first time this year. They dropped their series opener with the Guardians Friday night, 10-7.
Pittsburgh’s offense is a balanced attack of mediocrity, as every regular starter has a bWAR between -0.1 and 0.3. Joey Bart is hitting .277/.382/.404 and Oneil Cruz is hitting .230/.355/.508 with five homers and nine steals, though he still has a negative WAR thanks to subpar defense.
Andrew Heaney has fit right in with the rotation, with a 2.13 ERA and 2.75 FIP through 25 1⁄3 innings. Paul Skenes’ 2.96 ERA looks good, but his NL-best 1.39 FIP looks even better. He’s also struck out 26 batters through 24 1⁄3 frames. The rest of the rotation in Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, and Carmen Mlodzinski hasn’t looked great, but the bullpen looks better than in past seasons with Joey Wentz, Caleb Ferguson, Justin Lawrence, and Dennis Santana closing games after David Bednar’s fall.