With another strong week, the Brewers now sit in a tie for first in the division
Welcome to the third week of our NL Central Power Rankings! We’ll release these rankings each week to grade all five teams and place them one through five. As everyone knows with power rankings, these should be taken as gospel and they’re obviously 100% accurate. Without further ado, let’s rank some teams!
1. Chicago Cubs (9-7); 85.1% chance to make postseason (Baseball Reference)
The Cubs remain in first place, but I think the gap between them and the Crew is closing. Chicago’s offense remains the best in the division (averaging six runs/game) and they have the best run differential in the division at +25.
Kyle Tucker is looking like a true MVP candidate as he’s hitting .317/.442/.667 with five homers, seven doubles, 16 RBIs, and 16 runs scored. Seiya Suzuki has been nearly as good, hitting .302/.400/.556 with four homers, 15 RBIs, and 11 runs scored.
While Justin Steele has bounced back a bit as his ERA is down to 4.76, Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd have both looked fantastic, with a 2.70 ERA for Imanaga and a 1.59 ERA for Boyd. Colin Rea has also been solid in a long-relief role, allowing no runs over 5 1⁄3 innings and picking up a save, the second of his career.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (8-6); 60.1% chance to make postseason
The Brewers have bounced back from their rough start to the year and are now in a virtual tie with the Cubs at the top of the division. After a -32 run differential through their first four games, Milwaukee has posted a +33 differential over their last 10 games, getting back to basically even at +1 for the season.
The offense has found a groove, scoring seven-plus runs in five of their last six games. Jackson Chourio looks like an MVP candidate himself, as he’s hitting .302/.297/.619 with four homers, six doubles, 16 RBIs, and 12 runs scored this year. Brice Turang has also been one of the best hitters in the league, while Sal Frelick is still holding his own with a team-best .340 batting average.
On the mound, injuries remain the biggest issue. Still, Jose Quintana’s season debut on Friday night against Arizona couldn’t have gone any better — 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K, 0 R. Chad Patrick and Tyler Alexander have done their jobs filling in in the rotation. At the same time, Freddy Peralta looks like the ace we’ve been waiting for, and Quinn Priester also had a solid Brewers’ debut on Thursday, allowing one run over five frames.
3. Cincinnati Reds (6-8); 10.3% chance to make postseason
The Reds had a solid 3-2 week entering Saturday, doubling their season win total as they took two of three against the Giants before winning their series opener with Pittsburgh.
The now-injured Matt McLain still leads the offense with three homers so far, as he’s hitting .214/.290/.571 with seven runs scored and five RBIs. Elly De La Cruz is hitting .236/.288/.400 with a pair of homers, 12 RBIs, nine runs, and three steals. Beyond those two, the offense has been mediocre at best, as they’re hitting just .203/.270/.325 as a team, accumulating -0.4 bWAR.
Most of the value for Cincinnati has come on the mound, as they’ve allowed 49 runs through 14 games, better than every other NL Central team by a large margin (the next closest is the Pirates at 69 runs). That’s in no small part because of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo at the top of the rotation. Greene has a 1.31 ERA with 23 strikeouts across 20 2⁄3 innings, while Lodolo has a 0.96 ERA and eight strikeouts across 18 2⁄3 frames. Brady Singer is 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. The bullpen combo of Emilio Pagán, Graham Ashcraft, Tony Santillan, Taylor Rogers, and Brent Suter has also been stellar.
4. St. Louis Cardinals (6-7); 7.9% chance to make postseason
The Cardinals have fallen back to earth (and below .500) as they had a 2-4 week against the Red Sox, Phillies, and Pirates, even dropping two of three to the last-place NL Central squad. Their offense and defense have been perfectly balanced, with 74 runs scored and 74 runs allowed through 13 games.
Brendan Donovan leads the offense as he’s hitting .365/.404/.538 with two homers, three doubles, 10 RBIs, and seven runs. Lars Nootbaar also looks solid with 14 hits in 12 games, while catcher Iván Herrera was playing out of this world before going down with an injury.
Andre Pallante has been their best pitcher with a 2.20 ERA through three starts, striking out 13 over 16 1⁄3 innings. Sonny Gray is still racking up the strikeouts (19 in 16 innings), though he has a 4.50 ERA and a 4.61 FIP. Their bullpen has been good, not great, as Phil Maton hasn’t allowed a run in 7 1⁄3 innings, and Kyle Leahy, Steven Matz, and star closer Ryan Helsley have all been above average thus far.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (5-9); 1.1% chance to make postseason
Even after winning two of three over the Redbirds, the Pirates are still at the bottom of the division, as they went 3-3 this week.
Their offense has left plenty to be desired, as their best player so far is catcher Joey Bart, who’s hitting .275/.370/.425 with 11 hits. Isiah Kiner-Falefa leads the team with 12 hits, and Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds also have looked solid. Andrew McCutchen is having a bit of a renaissance as he’s hit .258/.324/.419 with a homer, two doubles, five RBIs, and two runs in 11 games this season.
As with the Reds, the best part about Pittsburgh is their young rotation. Veteran Andrew Heaney has led the way with a 1.50 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 12 innings, but Paul Skenes is still one of the best pitchers in the league. While his 3.44 ERA doesn’t look great, he’s struck out 20 in 18 1⁄3 innings, and his 1.29 FIP leads the NL. Mitch Keller has also been the victim of bad luck with a 4.24 ERA and 2.74 FIP through three starts. While David Bednar’s struggles resulted in a demotion, the rest of the bullpen has been fairly solid, with Joey Wentz, Dennis Santana, Caleb Ferguson, Justin Lawrence, and Chase Shugart all posting sub-2.50 ERAs through three-plus appearances.