Brewers bounce back with four straight wins but remain second in NL Central rankings
Welcome to the second week of our NL Central Power Rankings! We’ll release these rankings each week to grade all five teams and place them one through five. As everyone knows with power rankings, these should be taken as gospel and they’re obviously 100% accurate. Without further ado, let’s rank some teams!
1. Chicago Cubs (6-4); 80.5% chance to make postseason (Baseball Reference)
The Cubs were the only team in the division to actually increase their odds of a postseason spot this week, rising from just under 70% to over 80%. I think that’s still an overestimate, but what do I know?
Kyle Tucker is clearly a great player, as he already has 0.9 bWAR as he’s hitting .308/.449/.744 with four homers, five doubles, 11 RBIs, and 11 runs in 10 games. Seiya Suzuki is also playing great, with four homers and 11 RBIs of his own. The catching combo of Miguel Amaya and Carson Kelly has been solid so far, and Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ are both still above-average players.
On the pitching side, Shota Imanaga is pitching about as well as he did to begin his rookie season, with a sub-1.00 ERA through three starts. Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon have both gotten roughed up, but Matthew Boyd looked good in his Cubs debut. The bullpen still looks like a weakness, something that killed Craig Counsell and Co. last season. Still, I think this is the team to beat thus far.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (4-4); 47.1% chance to make postseason
The Brewers came off one of the worst four-day stretches in franchise history and bounced back with one of the best four-day stretches. After allowing double-digit runs in three of their first four games, the Brewers have allowed just four runs over the last four days.
Milwaukee’s offense hasn’t truly found a rhythm yet, with both William Contreras and Christian Yelich batting below .100. However, Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang are both in the groove. Chourio has picked up a hit in each game since his dismal 0-for-5 with five strikeouts on Opening Day, and Turang has a hit in every game this season as he’s hitting .313/.324/.500 with a team-high two homers and six RBIs. Isaac Collins has been about as valuable of a fourth (or fifth, depending on how you count Yelich) outfielder as there is in the majors, with three doubles and two steals in just 12 at-bats.
Freddy Peralta looks like a true ace, Nestor Cortes bounced back with a great start Thursday night, and Tyler Alexander and Chad Patrick have stepped up with solid starts this week. Abner Uribe and Bryan Hudson have both been solid out of the bullpen, and Trevor Megill has so far proven that he’s capable of being the closer.
If the Brewers’ offense can find its way and the team can maintain a record around .500 until the pitching staff gets healthy, I think this looks like another playoff team.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (4-3); 15.0% chance to make postseason
The Cardinals have been quietly surprising so far. With a 4-3 record against the Twins, Angels, and Red Sox, I’m still waiting to see how they match up with the rest of the NL Central.
Offensively, the Red Birds have surprised, as Victor Scott II and Jordan Walker — two players I think most Cardinals fans had lost hope on — are both having solid starts to the year. Scott is hitting .308/.367/.462 with four steals, and Walker is hitting .318/.423/.455. Lars Nootbaar and Iván Herrera have led the offense — especially Herrera, who has four homers and a slug over 1.000 — just as everyone expected. Nolan Arenado is having a bit of a renaissance, but Willson Contreras is hitting even worse than his brother (.071/.103/.107).
The pitching has been the rougher side for St. Louis, as Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde both have ERAs over 5.00 through two starts. Matthew Liberatore, Miles Mikolas, and Andre Pallante all did fine in their season debuts, so we’ll see how they hold up in the coming weeks. Ryan Helsley remains one of the best closers in the game, and Phil Maton has been basically perfect through four appearances (no runs, two hits, no walks, six strikeouts).
4. Cincinnati Reds (2-6); 4.5% chance to make postseason
I stand by last week’s take that Elly De La Cruz is overrated. He’s fast, hits for power, and has a cannon for an arm. But he’s also too sloppy for my liking, and he strikes out too much.
Anyway, this Reds team hasn’t played great thus far, especially this week. Before picking up a pair of late runs last night, the Reds hadn’t scored in almost four full games, falling just shy of 36 innings. The entire offense, excepting De La Cruz and Matt McLain, has accumulated negative WAR, with McLain leading the way mostly due to his three homers, five RBIs, and seven runs, though he leads the team with 11 strikeouts.
The pitching hasn’t been all that bad, as Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, and Carson Spiers all have sterling ERAs. In fact, as a staff, the Reds’ ERA sits at 2.57 through eight games, which is insane given their 2-6 record. I think this offense is better than it’s been so far, though, so I’d expect the Reds to compete if they can get those bats to work.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (2-6); 1.4% chance to make postseason
The Pirates haven’t been much better than the Reds, and they’ve actually struggled on both sides of the ball.
The great Isiah Kiner-Falefa leads the offense with 0.5 WAR, hitting .360/.467/.360 with a team-high nine hits so far. Other than that, nobody has been great. Oneil Cruz is the only player with multiple homers, and he’s also stolen a league-high seven bases. Andrew McCutchen is looking good as he’s hit .375/.444/.625 across 18 plate appearances, and Bryan Reynolds hasn’t found his groove yet, as he’s hitting under .200.
Paul Skenes is arguably the best pitcher in baseball at age 23, with a 1.46 ERA and 13 strikeouts across 12 1⁄3 innings so far. Mitch Keller has been roughed up across two starts, while Andrew Heaney and Bailey Falter both pitched well enough in their season debuts. David Bednar has called on rough times with three runs allowed across a total of just one inning in three appearances, but the rest of the bullpen is holding their own.
Like I said, the Pirates aren’t playing great on either side of the ball.